2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe First Lady of Arkansas vs. a Jewish Civil Rights Activist Face Off in the Confederate Red States
Who do YOU think has the advantage in the Republican red states that used to be part of the Confederacy?
Is it the Clintons who are Arkansas royalty, who decimated welfare in the 1990s, who embraced the Defense of Marriage Act, who expanded the death penalty and stripped judges of discretion by requiring harsh private for-profit prison sentences for drug possession, who fought against business and financial sector regulations, and who broke the back of unions at WalMart and in a series of unfair trade agreements?
Or is it a Jewish liberal who has been arrested protesting for civil rights, who has fought to expand welfare and social security and a public right to health care, who voted against the Clintons' Defense of Marriage Act, who opposes the death penalty and favors decriminalization of marijuana possession, who has fought for protecting the public through increased financial sector regulation, and who has supported labor both on the picket line and in relentlessly opposing unfair trade agreements?
In the primary, Clinton may over-perform in the Confederate red states that vote Republican in general elections.
Once the race turns away from Dixie, however, Sanders will rise during the period from March 22 to April 9 (Sanders is strong in Alaska, Wisconsin, Idaho, Washington, Wyoming, Utah, Hawaii, and Arizona - a potential 8-for-8 Sanders winning streak). Between now and the part of the primary calendar that balances out Clinton's Confederate red state advantage, look for strong performances in Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Vermont, Kansas, Nebraska, Maine, Michigan, etc., etc., etc.
WE ARE DEMOCRATS AND WE WILL NOT LET THE REPUBLICAN STATES CHOOSE OUR PRESIDENT!
Do not buy into the false argument that Tuesday will end the race! Sanders will rise when the race moves away from the Confederate South.
And do not let the Clinton campaign try to tell you this is a racial issue -- it is NOT racial.
You know this not a racial issue because Washington DC has over 50% African Americans and Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, and New York all have populations including about 20% African Americans or more and NONE of these are Republican territories.
The ex-Confederate Republican red states include Arkansas and Tennessee, which both have smaller percentages of African Americans than Washington DC, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, or New York.
This is a political and cultural divide. If it were a racial issue, it would exclude Republican Arkansas and Tennessee (with less than 20% African Americans) and it would include Democratic Washington DC, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, and New York (with higher percentages of African Americans).
In the Old South, with its sad history, the First Lady of Arkansas has an advantage over a Jewish civil rights activist. If this surprises you, then you are overdue for a history lesson.
EDITED TO EMPHASIZE THIS POINT:
It is a fallacy that the most right-wing states have a primary-ending vote in the nominating process when (1) Hillary enjoys a home-field advantage in those right-wing states and (2) Sanders' progressive message has not been historically well accepted in those right-wing states and (3) the primary states that will balance this Confederate-state bias in favor of Hillary are less than a month away.
No single region (especially the furthest right-wing region in the nation) can substitute for a national nomination process that naturally balances deep-red southern states with northern, western, and eastern states to validate our process.
brooklynite
(94,595 posts)...whose votes don't count?
Oh, and Clinton is 20 point ahead in Maryland.
msanthrope
(37,549 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Under Bernie bus with the entire southern part of the United States!
I thought Bernie wanted to be president of the whole country?
I'm confused. Can some Bernie supporter help me out here?
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
Lizzie Poppet
(10,164 posts)Yes, that's a harsh statement, but it's the sad political fact that the Electoral College renders votes for the losing candidate in a given state meaningless...and all the more so when it's known in advance which way a state will fall in November. Black Democratic voters in South Carolina are just as irrelevant to the GE result as Trump supporters here in Oregon.
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)Lots of conservative Confederate states early in the cycle. And it's no surprise that Hillary does better in conservative states than the 'socialist'.
People thinking it's 'over' just because Hillary will be the Confederacy darling are fooling no one but themselves.
leftofcool
(19,460 posts)Do you really want to paint all Southerners this way?
frazzled
(18,402 posts)suggest that Hillary Clinton is a racist, who appeals to racist confederate democrats in the deep south.
Oh boy. My South-Carolina-born-and-bred Jewish liberal husband (who was one of only 6 white kids in his high-school graduating class) will like to hear this one.
To tar Hillary Clinton with the label "First Lady of Arkansas" is a cool move to wipe out her entire biography: her Illinois roots, her civil rights activism at Wellesley, her work with the Children's Defense Fund, her Yale Law degree, her many years as an attorney, her work for women's rights and children's rights, her 8 years as senator of the State of New York, her 4 years as Secretary of States.
So let's label Bernie: the white guy who moved to the tiny lily white state of Vermont, stayed there for nearly 50 years, and never had a real job outside of politics (meaning, "The Establishment" . How does that go over in the South?
LexVegas
(6,067 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)states have larger percentages of African Americans than Republican Confederate states such as Tennessee and Arkansas.
The problem with the Old South is that it is REPUBLICAN and historically antagonistic to Northerners (especially Jewish civil rights activists). The African American population of the Old South is not the problem, and I made this quite clear in the OP.
workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)Interesting campaign strategy.
Insult, demean and write off the base voters of the democratic party and still think you got a shot at the nomination.
WTG Bernie?
Eric J in MN
(35,619 posts)Under decriminalization, people still get fined for possession of small amounts of marijuana. Under legalization, they don't.
Sanders has introduced a Senate bill to federally legalize marijuana. He's implied that states should also legalize it, though he doesn't want the federal government to pressure states to do so.
firebrand80
(2,760 posts)leftofcool
(19,460 posts)SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Sid
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)we just have to ignore the meme that its over. they want him out before the convention.
not gonna happen.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)and then want to say those states are the final word on who gets the nomination.
You can already hear the "it's over after Tuesday" nonsense.
dsc
(52,162 posts)we heard about how if Bernie won NH and IA he would win the nomination with virtually no blacks, Hispanics, or Asians getting any say at all, and the vast majority of Bernie supporters were hunky dory with that. Now that at long last black people are going to get a say, not to mention Hispanics, all of the sudden it is unfair. You surely are transparent in your utter disdain for people of color.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)lost Iowa and New Hampshire was either lying or high.
restorefreedom
(12,655 posts)kgnu_fan
(3,021 posts)workinclasszero
(28,270 posts)I'm a democrat yes but an American first! No flippin way are we going to just write off entire sections of this country!
JEEZ!!!
Whats with this confederacy crap anyway?
You guys are just great ambassadors for Bernie, let me tell you! Do you want to lose every southern state by double digits?
These ideas will get around you know? Gonna be lots of pissed off southern democrats when they get wind of it too!
Southern states of the USA....attention! Under the Bernie bus with you!!!
sufrommich
(22,871 posts)appreciate you trying them to the confederacy.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)The problem is the former Confederate states' Republicanism and hostility to Northerners (especially Jewish civil rights activists).
African Americans in the South have never been part of the problem, which is a huge problem DESPITE (not because of) African Americans in the Old Confederacy states.
sufrommich
(22,871 posts)African Americans,but I'm sure you know that. What you are attempting to do here is disgusting.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)are all ex-Confederacy red states.
sufrommich
(22,871 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)year, didn't they?
Is that NOT fucked up?
Someone fought to fly that flag, and I'm guessing it was not African Americans.
sufrommich
(22,871 posts)states that you're describing?. What you're attempting to imply is disgusting,there is literally no one who isn't turned into a monster if they dare not fawn over Sanders with some of you. This is completely over the top and vicious bullshit. There are democrats in every state,stop trying to vilify them. Some of you aren't supporters,you're cult members.
Tanuki
(14,918 posts)Are you really trying to pretend that they are enamored of Hillary Rodham Clinton?
Sad attempt to 'splain away your hero's lack of traction with the Democratic base in the next round of primaries. Too bad you have to resort to unfounded smears of good Democrats and dismiss philosophical disagreements as being somehow based in racism and anti-Semitism. That's actually pretty disgusting, and not likely to win your candidate any more support. But I suppose it will make you feel a little better about his upcoming drubbing in SC and on Super Tuesday.
SidDithers
(44,228 posts)Yeah, you should totally go with that.
Maybe add in a few Confederate flags too, just to make sure nobody misunderstands.
Sid
book_worm
(15,951 posts)of Arkansas and Bernie is even giving up on South Carolina. Not good, but keep trying.
excringency
(105 posts)I too am from Texas, and on the first day of early voting I cast my ballot for Senator Sanders. I did so because where there are differences between the Senator and Secretary Clinton, I find myself siding with the Senator. If Senator Sanders can bring about even a small portion of his platform the U.S, and the rest of the world would become a better place. That being said I am beginning to become exhausted by the vitriol in posts such as this. I understand that passions run high and I have not been as active or as longstanding a member as most of my compatriots here, but I would encourage everyone to take a deep breath and think for a moment before returning to the political fray. I do not believe the Hillary-hysteria (anti or pro) is going to aid in electing a Democratic president (and the appointment of future Supreme Court Justices). Also, if I may be so bold, I take exception to the use of the label of Arkansas First Lady here. I find this to diminish Hillary Clinton in that she has more importantly served as a U.S. Senator and Secretary of State. I give this poster the benefit of the doubt that they did not mean to appear to denigrate Secretary Clinton because of gender, but referring to her as merely the Arkansas First Lady appears to do so in my eyes. I get the point being made, but there are plenty of other reason to be a booster for Senator Sanders over the Secretary. I find no reason for character attacks or the belittlement of his opponent in this manner, but then again, I could be wrong.
Vote2016
(1,198 posts)on Tuesday is our nominee.
That argument is complete bullshit, but I see it 50 times a day! It is preposterous that whoever wins a primary contest in a cluster of overwhelmingly Republican states ought to use that as a "game over" theme which is now ubiquitously repeated.
I also think the Arkansas First Lady lable makes perfect sense in the context of who has an advantage in states that share a border with Arkansas - wow, did we ever hear about the Senator "from Vermont" and its shared border in the run up to the New Hampshire primary and in the wake of Clinton's 22% drubbing.
Finally, I see posts (not yours) suggesting this racial. I see this as cultural. The Southern Super Tuesday states have a cultural identity that pushes them to the far right of the Republican Party. It is not the racial make up of these states that is to blame for the fact that they are a pocket of intolerant and antiprogressive Republicanism as compared to most of the country.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Clinton has BOTH a geographical advantage in the Old Confederate states (where the Clintons rose to political power) and she has a ideological advantage in the Old South (where they like their Democrats to hold positions that would be unacceptably far to the right of Democratic principles widely accepted in more liberal and more progressive parts of the country).
This is an ideological attack; not a character attack.
Rosalynn Carter and Ladybird Johnson were both First Ladies of ex-Confederate States. There is no disparagement in that fact. If, hypothetically, there was a contest to name the best First Lady ever, and the voters in that contest were limited to those from the Old Confederacy, I bet Rosalynn Carter and Ladybird Johnson might fair better than if the vote was conducted in Massachusetts where Jackie Kennedy would probably fare well. I don't think it is an unfair "character attack" to point out that holding the hypothetical contest exclusively in Old Confederacy states favors Rosalynn Carter and Ladybird Johnson or that holding the contest in Massachusetts favors Jackie Kennedy.
The point is that Hillary has geographic advantages and centrist ideological advantages in the primary contests in the Old Confederate states, and Sanders will come to states a month after the Tuesday primary where Hillary does not have these advantages and so let's not call the race just because Hillary can win a primary in a cluster of Republican states o the furthest right-wing extreme of the American political spectrum.
Nonhlanhla
(2,074 posts)That she was the First Lady of Arkansas? In contrast to Bernie's Civil Rights activism? What about her Civil Rights activism? Or do you people not bother to inform yourself about that, since you are too busy demonizing her? No mention of the fact that although she arrived at Wellesley as a Republican, she left there are an anti-war Democrat who had worked closely with Wellesleys few black students in recruiting more black students and hiring black professors, who had written a thesis on anti-poverty crusader Saul Alinsky and was offered a job by him, who had actually met Martin Luther King, Jr., who had volunteered for anti-war candidate Eugene McCarthy's campaign (yes, we also know that she worked for Nelson Rockefeller's campaign, but only to challenge Nixon), and who in her commencement speech at Wellesley chastised Republican senator Edward Brooke as being out of touch. I would think that her youthful Civil Rights involvement, her later efforts to get universal healthcare, her work with children, her work on women's issues, etc., all qualify her to be referred to as a bit more than just a First Lady.
We all know that Bernie supporters love to distort Hillary's record, but to reduce her to merely an appendix of her husband's career, is ... well that word we're not allowed to use without being accused of playing cards.
The reality is that, yes, Bernie has an admirable record on civil rights and on many other things. And he and Hillary have always had slightly different approaches to things. But it is a LIE to distort Hillary's record, and to diminish her in the way this OP does.
Vote2016
(1,198 posts)in the Deep South?
If the Clintons are not most closely associated with Arkansas, what state are they most closely associated with (Illinois where she lost the 2008 primary by a 32% or New York where she is referred to as "that Carpetbagger" ?
angrychair
(8,700 posts)The point has merit. While I now live in a very blue state (Washington) I have lived in Texas, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia. While you can make a case for Virginia and NC being purple(ish) the rest, to include Alabama, Louisiana, Tennessee and Arkansas are very red states.
I feel for my Democratic Party brothers and sisters in those red states, I've lived it.
That being said, in our current reality, it is very odd to let what is mostly conservative states with mostly conservative Democrats, have such significant impact on early delegate counts and in determining momentum for the remainder of the primary race into the convention. It really should be far more mixed. I get it for Republicans, it's their current stronghold for their base. It is not for Democrats. Why leave so much influence to so many conservative states, while liberal stongholds like WA, OR, CA, NY have their votes after when many consider it already over. Seems counter-intuitive.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)You did get my main argument, which you phrased better than I did: "it is very odd to let what is mostly conservative states with mostly conservative Democrats, have such significant impact on early delegate counts and in determining momentum for the remainder of the primary race into the convention."
My intention was to call attention to the fallacy that the most right-wing states are being touted as having a primary-ending vote in the nominating process when (1) the centrist candidate also enjoys a home-field advantage in those right-wing states and (2) the left-wing candidate's message has not been historically well accepted in those right-wing states and (3) the primaries that will balance this bias in favor of the centrist are less than a month away.
If you want to suggest where my argument is lost in over-zealousness, I will edit the OP to tone it down.
angrychair
(8,700 posts)I think if you just temper it with advocating for a mix of southern and northeastern and/or western states to balance out the process.
Yavin4
(35,441 posts)It makes total sense. Dark blue states like NY, WA, OR, and CA will go blue in the general election (unless something weird happens), so you want to build organizations through the presidential campaigns in those states that Dems don't do well in early on.
angrychair
(8,700 posts)I could not disagree more. The point of a primary is to decide what the Democratic Party, as a body wants as a presidential candidate in the GE. As it currently exist, we are allowing a small sub-set of predominantly socially and/or economically conservative Democrats have a disportionate influence on that process.
By the time it gets to Pacific Coast or New York, the actual delegate count, most pundits and Democrats have a false perception of momentum and consensus that make be more self-fulfilling prophecy than actual consensus.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)far right-wing states that we don't win in November pick a nominee who they will not vote for in November.
Yavin4
(35,441 posts)Liberals and Democrats in red states need our help and support, and your post insults them. Yet somehow, you want them to send you senators and congress people who will enact Bernie's agenda.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)voters in the Old Confederate South?
Is that really what you come away with?
As a Democrat from Texas, I assure you this: Henry Cuellar (D-TX) would never get elected as a Democrat in any state outside of the Old Confederacy (maybe he'd get elected as a moderate Republican) because his values are WAY to the right of the Democratic Party nationally (but still within the scope of the Texas Democratic Party). I'm not sure letting Republican states pick a Democratic nominee is a good idea. If you feel otherwise, we can agree to disagree.
DrDan
(20,411 posts)Bad Thoughts
(2,524 posts)They won't vote Dem in the general election.
Irony is delicious.
Vote2016
(1,198 posts)bettyellen
(47,209 posts)bettyellen
(47,209 posts)Seriously?
This is disgusting on so many levels. Nothing but sour grapes. If you knew the first thing about racist assholes, you'd know they are also overwhelmingly sexist. How has this escaped you?
This OP is a hateful dog-whistling bag of bitter failure. It does not even make sense. Comparing Hillary to other southern first ladies? WTF? Embarrassed for you.
Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)Obama, but they also hate Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid.
What the Confederate states hate more than minorities is progressiveism. We know they hate progressiveism more than minorities because they will embrace an anti-progressive minority before the will embrace a progressive white.
It is nuts that anyone should argue a national Democratic choice should be decided by a cluster of far-right Confederate states.
Beacool
(30,250 posts)Stop trying to twist yourself into a pretzel. Hillary will win the South because AA prefer her in vast numbers over her opponent. She's not going to win those states based on white Democrats. It's not that complicated. Despite the dubious results from NV's entry polls, Hillary also has the support of the majority of Hispanics.
JI7
(89,252 posts)TBF
(32,064 posts)because I'm waiting until March 1st to do a larger donation as he comes off these SEC states. Everything the DNC has done the past few years has been towards a Clinton Coronation and frankly it's disgusting.
KingFlorez
(12,689 posts)This is truly pathetic to even go here. Sanders being Jewish has nothing to do with him performing poorly in polling in southern states and the confederacy has nothing to do with anything. Black voters dominate in those states and they are certainly not pro-confederate, let alone overwhelmingly anti-Semitic.