Bernie's South Carolina Surrender

[book_worm]

COLUMBIA, S.C. — With just a few days left until the South Carolina Democratic primary, Bernie Sanders is all but writing the state off.

He hasn’t said that, of course, but his schedule reflects it.

Sanders was in Massachusetts Monday night and Virginia Tuesday morning. While he attended a televised town hall in South Carolina Tuesday night and followed with an early-morning press conference, his itinerary Wednesday consisted of events in Kansas City, Missouri, and Tulsa, Oklahoma. After that, his schedule called for a trip to Ohio Thursday -- with stops in other March-voting states likely to be added, said an aide.

A candidate’s time is a campaign’s most precious resource, so by spending so much of it somewhere other than South Carolina, the Sanders campaign is engaging in the cold calculus of primary politics – making the tough decision to send the senator to the states where he figures to be the most competitive.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/bernie-sanders-south-carolina-schedule-219708#ixzz416AWaUkM

Even with the polls overwhelmingly against her in New Hampshire--HRC campaigned hard there.

[cyberswede]

1. well

I think it demonstrates fiscal responsibility to recognize where your money is better spent.

Hillary campaigned hard in NH because she needed the vote to be as close as possible after Iowa.

And she won the state last time, despite not being the favored winner. I'm sure she hoped for a repeat.

MANCHESTER, N.H. — Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton won New Hampshire's Democratic primary Tuesday night, pulling out a stunning victory over Sen. Barack Obama in a contest that she had been forecast to lose.

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/22551718/ns/politics-decision_08/t/stunner-nh-clinton-defeats-obama/#.Vs3JIlKuzzM

[CorporatistNation]

11. Sound Management Of Bernie's Time And Resources!

SMART!!!

[brooklynite]

16. Well, if Sanders is going to pull his resources out of all the States where he won't do well...

Last edited Wed Feb 24, 2016, 01:45 PM - Edit history (1)

...he should be able to save quite a bit of money.

[workinclasszero]

39. Good point

Bernie can potentially save a TON of money!

[Firebrand Gary]

76. Yuge!

[Punkingal]

2. And Hillary has been off doing fundraisers.

So fuck that shit.

[virtualobserver]

6. these "written off" posts are pretty ridiculous....12 states vote 3 days after SC

Is Bernie supposed to focus exclusively on SC, then visit 12 states in 2 days?

[brooklynite]

17. ...and you begin to see the problem.

He had nine months to build up strength and support in IA and NH. Now, the States get bigger (more expensive to campaign in) and come more quickly. Almost all of the large ones seem to be heading Hillary's way.

I don't criticize him for withdrawing from a State where he won't do well; I note it an another example of his apparent limited ability to find a path to the nomination.

[HooptieWagon]

30. Clinton has probably surrendered VT, MN, and AK.

It's no big deal...you're harping on about nothing. All the time candidates will write off states where they're well ahead or behind, and focus their resources on states with a narrow gap. To claim a candidate should concentrate on a state where they're 20 points behind is just plain ignorance of how campaigns are run.

[brooklynite]

34. Except that she hasn't...

...she'll definitely "lose" Vermont, she may "lose" MN and Alaska...

...but she's actively campaigning in all of them, to get a share of the delegates. She's learned the lesson from 2008 about blowing off low-delegate States.

[virtualobserver]

56. It isn't a problem, and he didn't withdraw

He is spreading his time among all of the states.

In my home state of Texas he has been building an organization for months....

You might be in for a surprise on Super Tuesday.....It might not be as super as you expect.

You might be surprised in SC as well.

[brooklynite]

59. "Sanders campaign bracing for SC loss"

COLUMBIA - Bernie Sanders’ campaign is bracing for a loss in South Carolina’s Democratic presidential primary Saturday.

“I wouldn't focus on the margin because it's not going to be that close,” Ben Tulchin, Sanders’ pollster, said Tuesday of Saturday’s primary. “But we're going to make it as close as we can. ... If we had three more months, we could close the gap more.”

[virtualobserver]

60. Brace yourself for a surprise.

[DrDan]

61. please explain his visit to KCMo today

that primary is on the 15th I think

[virtualobserver]

64. and the Kansas caucus is on the 5th

It's a two-fer. Bernie is trying to win the election.

He is not running for President of South Carolina.

[DrDan]

66. 18 state primary before Missouri - 10 in the South

I think there is a clear message there

[DrDan]

68. 12 state primaries before Kansas - and 8 in the South

[virtualobserver]

69. Oh my!......

[NurseJackie]

3. Things aren't looking good for Bernie. I don't think he's going to win the nomination.

Go, Hillary! We love you!

[Trajan]

4. Wow .. Hillary 'campaigned hard'

In a state she was expected to win ....

Is it really wise to 'campaign hard' in a state you are expected to win, especially after your competitor has left the state? ...

She will have her glorious victory in South Carolina ... In fact, she should win every republican state in the south ... But even then, there will be other contests in other, more populous states where her success is seriously in question ...

So, get your jollies now ... Enjoy the Super Tuesday states, because we are preparing for the big crush after Super Tuesday ...

Go Bernie! ....

[HillDawg]

10. I'm assuming her approach

is more about narrative than anything else. She wants to run up the score, so she can get a good chunk of delegates and also steal the headlines. There is no Republican things until Super Tuesday, so her dominating SC would steal the headlines, and it would also continue to raise the question about support from the black community. Plus, she has the money so her spending money there really isn't going to hurt her.

[hill2016]

42. can you elaborate

what were his mistakes in Nevada?

He seems to had a good ground operations set up

[workinclasszero]

43. Great analysis of the importance of Nevada

It will be looked at in the future as Bernie's Waterloo, I bet.

Really enjoy your insights and comments on the primaries.

I hope you will be breaking down South Carolina and the Super Tuesday contests as well.

[workinclasszero]

50. Oh you were a local?

Cool.

Well it sounds like you know your way around politics anyhow.

[workinclasszero]

55. Hillary would have been in serious trouble, agreed.

That was Bernies one shot to take over the race and make the revolution a reality but he put all his eggs in the youth basket.

The most unreliable voters did what they always do except in rare cases like Obama in 2008.

They didn't show up at the voting booth/caucus. And his campaign is over, whether he or his supporters know it or not.

It will be become readily apparent real soon.

Hey you been around politics 40 years, so I still would like to hear your breakdown of SC and Super Tuesday.

[workinclasszero]

62. SC will be a huge win for her...I can't wait!!

"Super Tuesday will be a Bernie blood bath"...Yes totally.

[flor-de-jasmim]

77. She won by just over 400 votes - that is not a tremendous mandate.

[Lizzie Poppet]

14. In a state she'd get eviscerated in in November.

It's a primary-winning, GE-losing strategy: pander to AA voters in Southern states that aren't in play in November. The problem with this strategy can be summed up in two words: "President Trump."

[firebrand80]

5. SC will be where the "Once they get to know him" argument

will die it's well deserved death.

[whatchamacallit]

7. "Bernie is wasting his time in SC he can't win"... "Look what a pathetic quitter Sanders is"..

The weathervane squeaks.

[restorefreedom]

8. WRONG. He addressed it this morning. press meme. nt

[mhatrw]

9. Where else was Clinton supposed to go if not New Hampshire?

Harry Reid was taking care of Nevada for her and she already had South Carolina won.

And the is more of the puerile "analysis" our corporate media loves. All about the horse race and nothing about the ideas or the records of the horses or how these ideas and records would affect the people the "horses" are supposedly racing for.

[Adrahil]

12. Sanders needs wins.

Let's be honest. He's going to lose in SC< probably by a large margin. OTOH, he does have a good chance to win MA. If he wants to have a narrative of viability, he needs wins on Tuesday.

I suspect that he knows the best he can do in SC is to try and get it closer. Now he still gets proportional delegates, so even losing he gets delegates, but he needs to win the narrative. And to do that, he needs some W's on Tuesday. At least 4.

[SoLeftIAmRight]

15. Hillary does well in red states that she will not win in the general

A smart person would understand what this reflects

[Agschmid]

19. And Bernie doesn't.

Yet you expect him to be elected on a wave...

[SoLeftIAmRight]

23. The election will be decided by the swing states.

that is just the way it is

[Agschmid]

25. Are you sure this season you know exactly which states those are?

There has been almost nothing predictable in this election so far... I'd be careful calling states swing states anymore.

[SoLeftIAmRight]

26. No - Do you think Hillary can win SC in the general?

???

[Agschmid]

27. I don't know yet.

We don't know who the nominees are... How can we possibly know?

[SoLeftIAmRight]

28. LOL

we are done - SC for Hillary - take a bite of reality

[Agschmid]

36. ...

Yup, didn't say that.

[NuclearDem]

31. The primaries and the general election are not the same things.

[BeyondGeography]

51. That's really not a smart post

See, "Obama, Barack, 2008 Presidential Primary," for exactly why.

[SoLeftIAmRight]

72. Money - Mouth

Want to make a bet - I will give you a three for

Alabama - Mississippi - South Carolina

1 to 3

Hillary will win none of these in the general

She wins even one you get 3
She wins none I get 1

[BeyondGeography]

74. Obama won those states and he won the GE

Without winning the South and a host of other deep red states that he didn't contest in the general, he never would have been the nominee. His dependence on those states had nothing to do with his ability to win in Nov.

You have no point of value to make here.

[SoLeftIAmRight]

79. is that how you say

no

[Renew Deal]

78. It reflects Obama's path to victory

Obama is Blue. Hillary is green.

[bobbobbins01]

18. I find it peculiar that bullshit about Sanders surrendering started hitting GD:P yesterday.

And today politico has a whole article about it. Marching orders maybe?

[Agschmid]

20. Or reality.

[bobbobbins01]

21. Nah, TV ad spend isn't a sign of surrender

I'm a volunteer for Sanders, and we're still very active in all the states listed as him "surrendering". Its nothing but a bullshit attempt at voter suppression.

[Agschmid]

24. It's NOT voter suppression to write an article about how much someone is spending on ads.

What a frivilous line.

You want to know what is voter supression?

- Caucuses
- Voter ID Laws
- Registration Requirements
... Etc.

Not an article which says Sanders is spending less money in certain states. You assertion is pure hyperbole, and what good is a revolution if it can be suppressed by this article.

[bobbobbins01]

35. It absolutely is when you characterize not running TV ads as surrender.

And its not just one article, its many small things that add up to surpress the vote overall.

[Agschmid]

37. It's not voter supression.

But hey nothing like a little hyperbole for lunch.

[brooklynite]

47. Of course, there's also the leaving SC to spend your time campaigning elsewhere thing...

[DrDan]

40. there were also threads asking for HRC to exit - I guess you missed those

[brooklynite]

41. How did you find out?

Yes, we ALL get a private text message on our Clinton-issued smartphones directing us what to post each day on an anonymous blogsite. Because, as DU goes.....

[workinclasszero]

44. Everybody knows that DU determines

the winner of all primaries and elections in the US...amirite?

[kstewart33]

22. Looks like he's stepping away from the South. nt

[hoosierlib]

29. Of course she did...the Democratic Party political establisment has her back...

When things got tight in NV, she called on Harry Reid and James Clyburn and John Lewis to shore up SC.

Bernie's campaign is based on the grassroots and time, money and resources are finite.

Unlike HRC, he doesn't have union leaders or a Super PAC to call on for reinforcements...

[workinclasszero]

46. Unlike HRC...

Bernie doesn't have many friends in the party because he slammed it for decades and refused to lift a finger for democrats ever.

Oh wait....until a few months ago.

Who knew that would ever come back and bite him in the ass eh?

[hoosierlib]

58. Blah...blah...blah...

You know he caucused for them in Congress and the Senate and the he has supportrd and endorsed numerous candidates nationally.

His main critque is that elements of the Democratic political establishment are a) too cozy with business and b) too hawkish...

I agree with him on both and will continue to support him and other candidates that share his beliefs...

[Agschmid]

67. You mean she maintains relationships with democrats...

Which can help her win elections?

Umm...

[SidDithers]

32. Yup...

Sid

[workinclasszero]

65. +1

[Alfresco]

75. +2 Yup.

[ladjf]

33. I think DU has become the snark capital of the world. nt

[DrDan]

38. looks like he has written the south off

[BernieforPres2016]

54. A new Hillary talking point on multiple threads here

I was at Bernie's campaign rally in Greenville, SC on Sunday night, less than 72 hours ago. So let's start the story on Monday. South Carolina is followed closely by how many states on Super Tuesday, 14? Bernie would have to be an idiot to campaign exclusively in South Carolina right up to the primary with all the primaries that are right behind it.

[DrDan]

70. yet he goes to Missouri today - primary on 3/15

[BernieforPres2016]

71. And he was also in South Carolina again today

Kansas City is on the state line of Missouri and Kansas. The Kansas caucuses are on 3/5.

Do you Clintonistas have any new talking points now after Bernie was in SC again today?

[Maedhros]

63. Sorry, bub. Bernie will not go gently into that good night.

He, and his supporters, will fight and claw and scrape to beat Hillary until the convention. We don't want a corporate war hawk as President.

[BainsBane]

73. 538 has a forecast with Bernie winning VT

The rest through March 8 (as far as I checked) all go to Clinton. Except for Mass (61% Clinton to 39 Sanders), the rest are all 98 or 99 % for Clinton to win.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/south-carolina-democratic/