I'm Not Going To Look A Gift Horse, Errr Republican In The Mouth -Rasmussen -Obama -48% Romney 47%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

[fugop]

1. BUT THE BOUNCE! NT

[CanonRay]

2. No matter how close it gets

Romney has no path without Ohio, and he's lost Ohio.

[MountainMazza]

4. Reminds me of

Tim Russert several years ago....."Ohio, Ohio, Ohio"

[GusFring]

7. you would think by now people would've learned nothing is certain.

Doesnt help to say Romney isnt winning Ohio. You dont know that.

[Maximumnegro]

16. But he isn't. Not saying he can't but

the early voting results are not in his favor. There would have to be the mother of all comebacks AND stealing for him to
win. Obama has what 120 offices to R's 38 in OH. So there's no 'jinx' in saying Romney's chances don't look good, they haven't looked for OH, well, EVER. Funny how this week has become the new normal. You'd think the election started a week ago.

[CanonRay]

21. Romney is NOT winning Ohio

People there hate the governor, his approval rating is down with the former VP. Sherrod Brown is completely kicking ass. Last poll, I believe it was the R leaning Rassmussen, had Obama up 7%. I may not "know" it, but I'm 99.9% certain.

[WI_DEM]

3. I have to say Ras has seemed to fair in the days after the debate

in both state and national polling. I don't know if it will last or if he has decided to change his model to a more accurate one, but I'll take it.

[still_one]

8. the question is it because you like his results better, or because they are really better?

[fugop]

9. For me it's the stability.

Ras isn't showing some of the weird wild swings. The lead has shifted back and forth, but it shifts in a logical way. That's how I see it, anyway.

[WI_DEM]

10. yes, I think that is it. Even some of there state polls while they don't give

Obama a big lead is actually showing improvement from their previous polling numbers.

[fugop]

13. Strangely, their swing state numbers give Romney the edge.

Funny, because for the past few days, most of our good news has been Obama's hold on the swing states, while the national numbers dropped. But Ras is showing the opposite: Obama's climbed back to a slim lead in the national number, while Romney is holding a slim lead in their swing state numbers.

As I said yesterday, I wish I knew what they used to get their swing state numbers. It seems that Obama leads in most of them via Ras's own polls. He lists the swing states as Colorado, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa, Pennsylvania (all with Obama ahead in Ras polls); followed by Florida, N.C. and Va. (all with Romney ahead); with two ties in NH and Nevada.

How on earth, when you look at those totals in the electoral college does Romney have a 1 point edge? Especially when he's actually got Pa. and Michigan blue on his map, with Romney's all in purple (and with Missouri showing up purple according to his map).

Anyway, I'm sure there's some kind of methodology since it's a daily poll somehow, but I'm flummoxed as to how he comes to his swing state numbers. Anyone have any insight?

[still_one]

12. Definitely it looks like things have stabilized since the debates, and the constant media melt=down

on it

[Godhumor]

11. I think it is a function of the fact that he weighs on party id

From what I've seen and read, since he uses it s a weight he misses a lot of the overall population trends...he didn't show big convention swings, big 47% swing or a big post-debate swing.

[magical thyme]

5. which either means that O is up by 2-3, or Rasmussen is being more accurate

as we get closer to the end in order to not look skewed.

I'm expecting (and praying) that the more the good jobs numbers hit, the more things swing back to Pres O. We had last weeks good jobs report, today's good unemployment filings report. I think in another week or two the jobs report from last week will be corrected, and is to expected to be corrected upward. That will make 3 good jobs reports in a row on front page in the MSM.

[Alekei_Firebird]

6. What were his pre-debate numbers?

[TroyD]

14. Good to see Obama leading Nationally in Rasmussen again

And it must have upset the Freepers this morning!

Only question I have is that in the report above, Rasmussen claims that after rising be a large amount on Friday after the Jobs Report, consumer confidence has quickly come back down to where it was before.

I hope that's not true. We need to see polling data to back that up from other firms to see whether that is valid.

If it IS the case, then Obama & Joe need to get the message out every day that they have kept their promise and lowered unemployment below 8%!!!!!!

[Marsala]

15. Rasmussen weights by party ID, which frequently damps out bounces that appear in other polls

Usually it has benefited Romney in Rasmussen's poll, but now it's working for Obama.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

17. And For That Reason Most Or All Of The Movement In Rasmussen's Polls Come From Indys

.

[Cali_Democrat]

18. Interesting. I thought pollsters weren't supposed to weight by party ID.

I thought they were only supposed to control for things like race and gender.

[hrmjustin]

19. I still hate the back and forth of it all.

[budkin]

20. Up in Rassmussen but down in Gallup and Reuters?

WTF is going on?