Despite the haranguing, I have yet to see anyone produce a viable map for Mitt

[morningfog]

You can call it "tied" and foam at the mouth, but I have yet to see an actual map that would give Mitt 270 that fits with reality.

Even if Mitt took FL, OH, VA and NC, he would still need one more swing state (CO or IA or NV).

He simply can't do it. Ohio has been steady for Obama. Romney has NEVER had a lead in the OH poll averages. Nor has he in NV or IA.

There are essentially 4 statistically true battleground states: Florida, Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia.

Even if Mitt swept those, it would not be sufficient to reach 270.

Colorado is tight right now, but I expect it to (re)open up in Obama's favor shortly. I have said for months now, Mitt's path to 270 is extremely narrow and extremely difficult. It is getting more narrow and more difficult daily. Despite this week of hand wringing and meaningless national polls.

Romney got a week of free non-stop promotion in the media and national polls and he is still no closer to a viable path.

[progressoid]

1. Mitt wins New York AND California

[muriel_volestrangler]

2. If he won, from those, FL, VA, NC, CO, IA and NV it would be 269-269 by my count

The only recent IA poll I can see is Rasmussen (7th Oct), which has Obama 49, Romney 47. Nevada is fairly close too - RealClearPolitics averages Obama at +1.6: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nv/nevada_romney_vs_obama-1908.html

It's not 'tied', but if Romney went up 1% in those 2 states, and Obama 1% down, it could be. And the Republicans could retain the House, which breaks the tie.

Or take Nate Silver's projected figures for the states:
CO: Obama +0.1%
FL: Romney +0.4%
IA: Obama +1.6%
NC: Romney +3.5%
NV: Obama +2.2%
OH: Obama +1.9%
VA: Obama +0.7%

So he sees Ohio as more likely to fall than Nevada. But it's roughly the same - a swing to Romney of 2% would give him the election.