My Super Tuesday Delegate estimate

[brooklynite]

Last edited Thu Feb 25, 2016, 09:36 AM - Edit history (1)

Vermont: Sanders 80% (15) Clinton 20% (3)
Massachusetts: Sanders 54% (49) Clinton 46% (42)
Minnesota: Sanders 55% (43) Clinton 45% (34)
Oklahoma: Sanders 51% (20) Clinton 49% (18)
Colorado: Sanders 51% (34) Clinton 49% (32)

Texas: Clinton 70% (155) Sanders 30% (67)
Virginia: Clinton 58% (56) Sanders 46% (39)
Georgia: Clinton 60% (60) Sanders 40% (40)
Alabama: Clinton 58% (32) Sanders 42% (21)
Arkansas Clinton 58% (19) Sanders 42% (13)
Tennessee: Clinton 60% (41) Sanders 40% (26)

Total Delegates: Clinton: 497, Sanders: 367

[leftofcool]

1. I think Hillary will win Oklahoma and possibly Colorado

[Thinkingabout]

2. Thanks brook, she is gaining and will get to the ultimate goal of the presidency.

[HillDawg]

3. And, honestly..

this is probably on the generous side for Sanders.

[NurseJackie]

18. That was my thought as well.

[stevenleser]

39. Particularly when you consider that a huge South Carolina win will move the numbers in

Hillary's favor.

[Eric J in MN]

4. What is your delegate prediction for the SC primary? NT

NT

[brooklynite]

7. Clinton 33, Sanders 20

[DemocraticWing]

5. That's a fairly reasonable prediction

I'm not sure what numbers you actually mean in Virginia (those percentages add up to 104) and I think Bernie might make a push to close the Texas gap some owing to that poll out today that has him down 10.

I think Minnesota and Tennessee might be closer too.

[kstewart33]

24. Bernie will win some states.

It's the proportional allocation of delegates that are hurting his chances for the nomination.

[thesquanderer]

37. On the contrary, I think proportional allocation is HELPING Sanders, at least at this point.

Look at that list in the OP, and imagine if Bernie got 100% of the delegates from his wins, and Hillary got 100% from hers. Bernie would end up a lot further back.

[kstewart33]

40. May be right so far.

If Hillary wins big in the Southern states on Super Tuesday, it will be difficult for Bernie to catch up. Bernie seems to have stepped away from those states.

But who knows?

[morningfog]

6. I think Hillary will be shut out in VT.

And TX and VA will be closer.

What's funny is thinking back to your predictions that Bernie would only win one state, lol.

[brooklynite]

8. About as funny as the folks who claimed Sanders would win all 50 States, huh?

[morningfog]

11. I certainly never made such a silly claim.

Nor do I remember anyone with any credibility making such claim.

Good to see you have honed your predictions some.

[brooklynite]

13. I never claimed Sanders would win only one State...

...and in fact I stated early on I gave him 40% odds of winning New Hampshire.

The reference to Vermont was in response to asking a Sanders supporter which specific States he/she thought Sanders would win. I never gave a judgement on any other locations.

[brooklynite]

9. Sorry - VA should be 58 Clinton / 42 Sanders

[jmowreader]

42. I don't think she'll be shut out, but if she goes over 10 percent I'll be surprised

Vermont is his home state and he is liked there.

However, I expect a near-total blowout in Texas - the only large area that leans toward his style of governance is Austin.

[morningfog]

44. Under 15% she gets no delegates from the state.

[CoffeeCat]

10. This is very interesting...

I've looked at these individual races, but I haven't listed it out on one page, as you have.

It's fascinating to contemplate that this will go down in a matter of days.

Isn't Texas closer? Last I heard/read there was a 10-point different, with HRC in the lead.

As a Sanders supporter, I don't agree with some of your assessments, but it's evident that so much will happen on March 1; and also on March 5th.

[workinclasszero]

12. Cool

We will see how it works out.

Interesting post thanks.

[HerbChestnut]

14. If that turns out to be accurate

Then it'd be a great day for Sanders. We all know Hillary has the edge on Super Tuesday so if they almost split the states and end up reasonably close in delegates then that's a win.

[brooklynite]

15. You consider +100 to be "reasonably close"?

Add to which, that doesn't include what Clinton will pick up in SC on Saturday.

[berniepdx420]

16. After super tuesday I believe we will still have 4/5 of the primary left to go... or 80% but

it's late, so those numbers could be wrong..

Still plenty of time and the progressive west yet to weigh in... gonna be close...California could be huuuuge !

[HerbChestnut]

17. Out of the 2400 needed to get the nomination, yeah.

[brooklynite]

19. But Super Tuesday will be a reflection of voters around the Country

Northeast, South, Midwest, West

White, Black, Asian, Hispanic

Young, Middle Aged, Senior

If Sanders can't cobble together a majority in the 10 States voting on Tuesday, where will he in the future?

[HerbChestnut]

20. Actually most Super Tuesday states are from the Southeast

And the ones the Bernie is likely to win are Mass, Colorado, Oklahoma, Minnesota, and Vermont. None of which are in the southeast. One could argue this is an indication of how poorly Hillary will do across the rest of the country after March 1st.

[workinclasszero]

28. You consider +100 to be "reasonably close"?

Bernie math of course.

[thesquanderer]

38. I agree, this isn't a bad outcome for Sanders.

Super Tuesday has not been expected to be especially kind to him. Later contests favor him more. The way I see it, his goal for the next couple of weeks is to stay within striking distance and avoid the perception of a blow-out. Your proposed delegate count for him is not at all terrible, from that perspective.

[restorefreedom]

21. for the most part, i think this is pretty close...

texas and virginia will much closer imo

and i think hillary will get 1 delegate in vermont, at best.

[panader0]

22. A fair estimate--though I think it may be a bit closer.

Certainly not a crushing defeat or enough to slow Bernie down.

[MineralMan]

23. Minnesota may not turn out to be a win for Bernie Sanders.

I can't say for sure, but we'll know next Tuesday night. I predict it will go for Hillary narrowly, once the caucuses are over. I'm not sure where the prediction that Sanders will win comes from, really.

I'm here. I'm seeing a Clinton win in Minnesota, but I could be wrong.

[kstewart33]

25. Thanks for your estimates and please post your changes as ST nears.

Very even-handed analysis.

[MoonRiver]

26. I think I saw a poll recently, on DU, that had her ahead in Mass.

Anybody else see that one?

[firebrand80]

27. Nate Silver has Hillary at 77% to win OK nt

[Funtatlaguy]

29. Bernie would be thrilled

with that result.

[oasis]

30. Reasonable and well thought out.

even handed distribution.

[HappyinLA]

31. nice, here's a little back of the envelope math

with your predictions

This would leave the race as HRC 1006 to BS 477. HRC would have 42% of the delegates needed to win, BS would have 20%.

At this point 1483 delegates would have been accounted for, leaving 3280 up for grabs.

In order for BS to win, he'll need 1905 delegates, which roughly means winning every remaining contest with 58% of the vote. For HRC, she would need to win 1376 delegates, or every contest with 42% of the vote.

[aaaaaa5a]

32. Good post.

I think if you are a Bernie supporter this is his best case scenario for Super Tuesday. Because all delegates are awarded proportionally, all delegate leads are tough to overcome.

Any delegate lead for Clinton bigger than this, and the Bernie camp is doomed. Clinton will only need roughly 40 percent of the vote in the remaining states and Sanders will never catch up.

[OilemFirchen]

33. Followed soon after by...

Michigan (3/8) and, on 3/15, Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio.

A total of 940 delegates, of which Clinton is likely to pick up at least 500. Call it about a grand for Clinton, in toto.

That's pretty much a done deal.

[DCBob]

36. Yeah, it doesn't get any easier for the Bernster.

[ismnotwasm]

34. Thank you for putting the numbers together

[DCBob]

35. I think you are being way too generous to Bernie..

I bet she gets close to 500.

[Lucinda]

41. Thank you for putting this together!

I'm looking forward to seeing how well you did!

[hill2016]

43. bookmark

for next week

[brooklynite]

45. UPDATE: My estimate is now Clinton: 497, Sanders: 367

New poll suggests Texas will be closer to 70/30