Nate Silver's Commentary update 10/10/12

[courseofhistory]

WE NEED TO UP THE ENTHUSIASM!! WHIP IT UP! OBAMA WILL DEFINITELY WIN IF PEOPLE GET OUT THE VOTE! TAKE A FRIEND, NEIGHBOR OR STRANGER TO THE POLLS. ASK OTHERS TO DO SO, ETC.

Political science research is divided on the impact of presidential debates — the one in Denver clearly seemed to matter quite a bit — but there is even less evidence that vice-presidential debates can sway voters. Even the famous 1988 debate between Senators Lloyd Bentsen and Dan Quayle produced little obvious shift in the polls toward Mr. Bentsen, the perceived winner, and his running mate, Gov. Michael S. Dukakis.

The enthusiasm gap may be a different matter. In general, it is easier to persuade voters to turn out than to compel them to change their minds.

It seems plausible that roughly half of Mr. Romney’s postdebate bounce — which appears to in the range of three to four points on average in the polls — has resulted from the shift in enthusiasm. It will be Mr. Biden’s job in Danville to work on that half of the problem. Then Mr. Obama will need to improve his performance in the last two debates to get back the rest of what he lost in

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/10/bidens-debate-mission-whip-up-democrats-to-blunt-romneys-gains/#more-35845

[woolldog]

1. Found this excerpt telling:

Mr. Obama’s debate performance may also have turned off other types of Democrats who can usually be counted upon.

In particular, according to research by the Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg, Mr. Obama’s performance was viewed poorly by unmarried women, who wanted a more combative tone and a sharper critique of Mr. Romney’s views about the middle class. Unmarried women were a crucial constituency for Mr. Obama in 2008, voting for him, 70 to 29 percent, over John McCain.

Biden won't have a problem taking on that tone.

[fugop]

2. I'm a woman, and I want to smack those women, if this is true.

How dare they. How dare women like that betray women-to-be like my daughter, who will be the one who pays for their fucking laziness or whatever the hell it would be that allows ANY Democratic woman to turn to Romney or to stay home. Because of a freakin' DEBATE? The past eight months - or the past eight years - any of that sound familiar?

THis just makes my blood boil. How dare they. I'm just ... I hope Greenberg is wrong. Because if not, I really will lose all faith in my gender.

[courseofhistory]

3. I'm also a woman

And there are some really, really clueless ones out there who take advantage of everything women have sacrificed who have gone before them and then actually vote for or seriously consider voting for this disgusting man! (I give equal time to men also but at least they aren't betraying their fellow sex).

[Dawson Leery]

4. It is clear based upon the LV/RV models

that many Democrats became discouraged and Rethugs encouraged.

[TroyD]

5. Women have been smarter than men all year when it comes to the Republicans

They have been solidly behind Obama for months and have recognized the dangers of people like Rick Santorum, Todd Aiken, Paul Ryan etc.

Why would they change their minds based on one debate?