Who wins if the GOP goes to a brokered convention? Obama, probably.

[babylonsister]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/post/imagining-a-brokered-convention/2011/08/25/gIQA9SbsHR_blog.html

Who wins if the GOP goes to a brokered convention? Obama, probably.
Posted by Ezra Klein at 11:41 AM ET, 02/16/2012


Let’s say it happens. Let’s say there’s actually a brokered convention this year. Who wins?

The Democrats, probably. A brokered convention is most often considered as part of a white-knight scenario. The idea is that Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul take this all the way to Tampa, and none of them have enough delegates to win on the first ballot. At that point, one of the Republican Party’s heavyweights — Mitch Daniel or Paul Ryan or Chris Christie or Jeb Bush — jumps in to unite the GOP and challenge Obama. But this is rarely looked at from the perspective of the potential draftee. To him, this would be a suicide mission.

The Republican Convention begins on Aug. 27. The election is on Nov. 6. A candidate who emerged during the convention — or even slightly before it — would have two months and some change to hire a national campaign staff, raise money, get on the air, craft a message, study up on the issues, decide on an agenda, introduce himself to voters, build out a ground game, etc. They would have two months, in other words, to become competitive with Obama’s ferocious campaign organization. And none of the potential candidates have ever run national campaigns before. In Ryan’s case, he’s never even run statewide in Wisconsin.

Nor would this candidate have had a smooth coronation some imagine. Brokered conventions are, almost always, angry, ugly things. The candidates who have been campaigning for the nomination don’t give up without a fight. Their supporters aren’t happy seeing months and months of work tossed aside so the establishment can choose someone new. Dozens of party actors — like Sarah Palin, who has been pushing the brokered convention idea hard — need to be bought off or otherwise mollified. The press is swarming everything, writing about the tensions and conflicts and doubts and concerns.

Prior to the 1970s, brokered conventions really were brokered. There were rooms, and cigars, and older white men making the decisions. But since then, both parties have rewritten their rules to emphasize public participation. So today, a brokered convention would be a fairly public — and, for the party, quite embarrassing — spectacle.

For all these reasons and more, top-tier candidates rarely want to get involved in convention fights anymore. That’s partly why contested conventions often go to one of the existing candidates rather than to a new choice. That’s what happened in 1984, when Walter Mondale was 50 delegates short of the nomination. That’s what happened in 1976, when Ronald Reagan fought Gerald Ford all the way to the convention. And in both those cases, of course, the party that couldn’t settle on a candidate before the convention lost the election.

[Art_from_Ark]

1. Mondale would have lost in 1984 anyway

He blew whatever chances he had when he announced "I'm going to raise your taxes" (Yes, he actually said that). Being closely connected with the much-maligned (at the time) Carter administration didn't help, either.

Ford would have lost regardless of the fight with Reagan, because of his perceived ineptitude (Poland is not under Soviet domination... Wait a minute, I guess it is), his association with and blanket pardon of Nixon, and backlash from his image as "America's first truly unelected President".

[Drunken Irishman]

4. Democrats could've run Jesus in '84 and they would've lost in a landslide...

That election, like '64 for LBJ, is about as close to unwinnable for the opposing party as you'll ever get.

[Art_from_Ark]

5. That's probably true

And it drove me crazy to see so many people falling hook, line and sinker for Saint Ronnie's spiel.

[customerserviceguy]

2. Agreed

That's why it's in our best interests to have this happen.

[OmahaBlueDog]

3. Counterpoint

Nor would this candidate have had a smooth coronation some imagine. Brokered conventions are, almost always, angry, ugly things. The candidates who have been campaigning for the nomination don’t give up without a fight. Their supporters aren’t happy seeing months and months of work tossed aside so the establishment can choose someone new. Dozens of party actors — like Sarah Palin, who has been pushing the brokered convention idea hard — need to be bought off or otherwise mollified. The press is swarming everything, writing about the tensions and conflicts and doubts and concerns.

Yes, but one thing has become clear -- nobody in the GOP cares about the hurt feelings of the current slate of contenders. Except for Ron Paul, I'm not sure Republicans give much of a damn for any of these candidates. The only GOP candidate for whom I regularly see bumper stickers and yard signs? Ron Paul. The irony - I see plenty of anti-Obama stickers, but almost none touting an actual opponent.

Prior to the 1970s, brokered conventions really were brokered. There were rooms, and cigars, and older white men making the decisions. But since then, both parties have rewritten their rules to emphasize public participation. So today, a brokered convention would be a fairly public — and, for the party, quite embarrassing — spectacle.

I about did a spit take here. Quite the contrary, the first brokered convention in what -- 40 + years, would be electrifying. It's like watching a Pope get elected, or a new English monarch getting crowned -- it's something so rare, few would be able to take their eyes off it -- even Dems.

For Klein to think this still won't be decided in back rooms is absurd. The moment it becomes clear that there wonuld not be a first ballot nominee, every PAC head would be meeting feverishly with the current and prospective candidates, party leaders, the former Presidents, and the other GOP celebs behind the scenes to find out who would bring the most electricity to a retooled 2012 campaign.

The idea is that Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul take this all the way to Tampa, and none of them have enough delegates to win on the first ballot. At that point, one of the Republican Party’s heavyweights — Mitch Daniel or Paul Ryan or Chris Christie or Jeb Bush — jumps in to unite the GOP and challenge Obama. But this is rarely looked at from the perspective of the potential draftee. To him, this would be a suicide mission.

Yes, a suicide mission. But no one actually dies. Someone will actually get an 18-wheeler load full of PAC cash and be told to go forth and slay the dragon. Ryan would have little to lose; Daniel might never get a shot this good; same with Jeb.

The Republican Convention begins on Aug. 27. The election is on Nov. 6. A candidate who emerged during the convention — or even slightly before it — would have two months and some change to hire a national campaign staff, raise money, get on the air, craft a message, study up on the issues, decide on an agenda, introduce himself to voters, build out a ground game, etc. They would have two months, in other words, to become competitive with Obama’s ferocious campaign organization. And none of the potential candidates have ever run national campaigns before. In Ryan’s case, he’s never even run statewide in Wisconsin.

Let's take this one point by point:

"The Republican Convention begins on Aug. 27. The election is on Nov. 6." -- Yes, but it should be clear that the convention will or will not be brokered by June, so that gives the come-latelys two more months, by my rekoning.

"A candidate who emerged during the convention — or even slightly before it — would have two months and some change to hire a national campaign staff, raise money, get on the air, craft a message, study up on the issues, decide on an agenda, introduce himself to voters, build out a ground game, etc." -- Not necessarily. First, the crafted message isn't the issue; the issue is the messenger. Nobody over there has found one in whom they're particularly confident. Second, the campaign staff and ground game can be solved by grafting a new nominee to one of the current candidates. Mitch Daniel is nominated, for example, and names Santorum as his Veep. He takes over the rank & file Santorum organization, but brings in his guys for the top advisory spots. The introduction to voters takes care of itself at the convention. Money -- at least initially, would not be a problem. If the new nominee fails to connect quickly, though, the money will dry up and find its way to downline races.

[DCKit]

7. The point of "Aug. 27- Nov. 6" is well taken.

What's more dangerous than a candidate who hasn't been vetted?

We need to do our background research on all the possible picks NOW, or we'll have no ammunition in the case of a brokered convention.

[DCKit]

6. No matter what, hilarity (and a healthy dose of outrage) is ensured until November.

We need to be paying far more attention to Congressional elections than we have been. The (R) pResidency race is on autopilot and, even when President Obama wins his second term, he's going to need some backup, or we'll have another four years of nothing getting done.