RCP Electoral Map Changes

[JaneQPublic]

Please don't shoot the messenger, but...

Today, Real Clear Politics removed the following states from the Obama column: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire. (Ohio was already removed 5 days earlier, taking Obama's Electoral numbers from 269 to 251.)

As a result of today's changes, Obama's Electoral total went from 251 down to 217.

The good news is that still Romney has 181 (no increase). The toss-up states now total 140 points.

Here's the map, with the count changes documented below the map.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

Having said that, I would wager these latest changes are all resulting from Willards short-lived debate bump, which of course will be turned around when polls come in showing the response to the lowered unemployment number and Biden's win of the debate on Thursday.

[FBaggins]

1. I don't see moving PA/WI to the tossup category.

That's way too large a range. It ceases to be meaningful.

Even Rasmussen has PA as O+5. That's simply not a tossup.

Wisconsin I can see IF a couple more polls (or additional national movement) back up PPP.

I see that Rasmussen has a tie in NH... but they had R+3 less than a month ago and even with a couple post-debate days, the other poll still has O+6.

[JaneQPublic]

4. Yeah, I thought a 5 pt lead = "Leaning" in RCP.

Apparently, their decision process is more arbitrary than that.

[bornskeptic]

7. They also have Missouri as a tossup, where Romney's lead is 5.2,

so it looks like they are being consistent.

[FBaggins]

9. Consistent... but unreasonable.

They just moved Michigan into the tossup column as well. That's just crazy, even if you accept Gravis as a reliable pollster.

This doesn't just redefine the notion of "tossup"... it makes "leans" meaningless.

[TroyD]

12. And Romney insiders have conceded New Hampshire is probably lost anyway!

Which is why RCP shouldn't have it in the Toss-Up Column.

This is why Nate Silver's model is still the most accurate. He doesn't just look at the current fluctuation in the polls, but their entire history and state fundamentals. Considering that Obama won New Hampshire in 2008 by almost 10 points, the fact that it's unemployment is lower than the national average, & the fact that the Republicans haven't won it since 2000 (and even then it was only by 1%), the history of the state indicates it is about 70% likely to vote for Obama.

[Drunken Irishman]

2. RCP is a fraud...

Removing Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire from Obama's corner is absolutely, positively bullshit. They're trying to drive the narrative this race is tightening ... and while it is in the polls, Obama's lead in those three states are:

+5 in Wisconsin
+4 in Pennsylvania
+4.5 in New Hampshire

Those are not 'toss-ups' ... those are 'lean-Obama'.

What a fucking farce. The media in this country is just horrible.

And conversely, I would move North Carolina, based on this definition, to lean-Romney. But those three states SHOULD be lean-Obama. Having a 4-plus average lead DOES NOT MAKE IT A GODDAMN TOSS-UP.

[TexasCPA]

5. Their threshold is somewhere around 5.5%

There have been a lot of Republican leaning posting issuing post-debate polls.

[graham4anything]

3. BADLY titled article Romney still has to sweep the board just like last week, nothing changed

except the phrasing.

Romney gains nothing at all. Not one vote.

and so many of the pollsters are rasmussen or his alias'

the old glass half empty
glass half full
and every single article coming out is looking at a glass half empty to demoralize

however, look on the bright side-nobody is listening in the real world as romney is not gaining.

Obama wins.end of story.

[hrmjustin]

6. I bet RCP could not wait to change their map.

[AndyTiedye]

8. They Are Adjusting Their Numbers to Account for Voter Suppression and Election Fraud

[BelieveMe3]

10. But

PA and Ohio aren't toss-ups!

[JaneQPublic]

11. They are now on the Real Clear Politics Electoral Map

As stated in the original post, they were recently moved into the toss-up column. See below:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html

[budkin]

13. PA? Ludicrous.

[bamacrat]

14. Bullshit site.

PA, OH, MI and NV all moved out of Obama's column?????? Even the most right wing of the pollsters have Obama winning all of those. This is utter bullshit.