Wed Gallup: Obama +5 with reg voters (+2) and tied with likely (+2)

[WI_DEM]

GALLUP DAILY
Oct 7-9, 2012 – Updates daily at 1 p.m. ET; reflects one-day change

Obama Approval 53%- Obama Disapproval 42%- No change from yesterday

Registered Voters:

Obama 50% Romney 45% (1 7-day rolling average)--yesterday was 49-46 Obama

Likely Voters

Romney 48% Obama 48% 7-day rolling average--yesterday was 49-47 Romney

[sharp_stick]

1. Ahh poor mittens

little bounce is fading pretty rapidly.

[TroyD]

6. Please, let's not jinx this

By getting cocky again.

I realize we want to celebrate some good numbers, but I think we should wait and see what's going on. I don't trust the polls just yet.

I need to hear from Nate Silver tonight. What a stressful last week this has been.

[sharp_stick]

9. OK OK

no jinx, no jinx, no jinx, no jinx, no jinx!

That should be enough to ward off the jinx fairies.

[leftynyc]

14. I remember a West Wing episode

It was election day and Toby wouldn't let anyone assume a victory - he didn't want to see any balloons and wrote both an victory and a concession speech. When anybody got cocky, they had to go outside, turn around 3 times and spit (or something like that).

[alcibiades_mystery]

16. ROFL

[Maximumnegro]

10. Like the handwringing, that is an irrational statement

why would cockiness jinx anything. And by cockiness you clearly mean confidence. Why would that jinx. This is not a Voodoo election. We are not electing High Priest or Priestess. Hearing from Nate won't help because the numbers won't change significantly for some days yet. So just resign yourself to the anxiety and paranoia with which you seem quite comfortable - but keep it to yourself. Thanks.

[budkin]

11. I've learned my lesson constantly bragging that it was "over."

I won't be doing that again.

[Maximumnegro]

15. Honestly, think it IS over

hence 'the race is stagnant' comment from the O team. But that's just me. Better throw some salt at the monitor! I think I have some left over chicken blood in the fridge...

[budkin]

2. Finally the "bounce" is subsiding

The likely voters number came down, but if we can get as many people to vote as they did in 2008 it will be the registered voters number that sticks.

[WI_DEM]

5. When I saw yesterday that Obama had a 53-42 job rating

I thought that good news had to come in the horse race polls as well.

[fugop]

3. WHOOP! Nt

[Dawson Leery]

4. It seems Repugs were encouraged by the debate, and Democrats were discouraged.

GOTV. Do not give up just because of one debate. It was Obama's first mistake for the 2012 campaign.

[Maximumnegro]

7. 53% Approval? Hell Yeah. So this means

what I take from this is that people are on his side but want him to close the deal in the debates. Human nature. He has the benefit of the doubt and support, but people officially want to hear Obama make the sale. Unless I'm mistaken 53% is a re-elect number. How much did 2004 Bush win with again?

[WI_DEM]

8. Bush won the popular vote by 2.4% in 2004

[TroyD]

12. Here's the full breakdown in a better visual form : )

GALLUP DAILY [Oct 7-9, 2012]

Obama Approval (53%)

Obama Disapproval (42%)

-------

REGISTERED VOTERS [7-day rolling average]

Obama 50% (+1)

Romney 45% (-1)

--------

LIKELY VOTERS [7-day rolling average]

Obama 48% (+1)

Romney 48% (-1)

[Dawson Leery]

20. GOTV.

Democrats were discouraged by the last debate. These numbers prove it.

[jenmito]

13. K&R! n/t

[fugop]

17. Best part of this?

Thursday and Friday are still in it. So Obama has made up ground once people settled down. That's bad news for Mitt if his two out-and-out best days by far STILL can't hold a lead for long.

[thevoiceofreason]

18. Buried in Gallup's numbers is another gem: Unemployment down .2% to 7.3%

[ncav53]

19. The bounce is fading

[WI_DEM]

21. I hope so and hopefully Biden will whip Lyin' Ryan's ass tomorrow night.