Princeton Election: this week "definitely not" reason to panic, re-elect probability 93%

[Chichiri]

http://election.princeton.edu/2012/10/10/time-to-panic-rejoice-neither/#more-7259

Romney fans hope for last week’s trends to continue all the way to Election Day. The Popular Meta-Margin for President Obama hit a high on October 3-4 (+6.2%), from which it has fallen to a near-low (+1.8%) in just 6 days. At the current rate of fall, on November 6th Romney’s popular vote margin will be a 60%-40% win.

Um, obviously that is unlikely to happen. What is wrong with the reasoning?

For one thing, now is exactly the time when a shock to the campaign should start to settle out. In the case of past large swings, getting enough state polls takes 10-12 days. Here are two prime specimens, the Ryan VP nomination and the 2008 Palin VP nomination.

(snip)

Today’s Meta-Analysis now has fresh polls in all swing states, mainly taken 10/4-5 – immediately after the debate. That means the initial shock is well baked in. We should have the full measure by Sunday.

[Charlotte Little]

1. If only the MSM would stop the negative...

I think this may have been posted in other threads as well, but here is more good news:
Dems out-registering Repubs in Florida & PA

Everyone supporting the reelection of President Obama needs to start walking & talking as if he is winning...because he is. The media is just giving him a damn good whipping for not playing the expectations game correctly. But I am confident that he will become the favorite again, barring any outrageous game changer - and the first debate was not it. What it was was a bunch of hot air blown out and up Romney's ass and now he's floating. Let's bring him back down to earth.

Spread the news as to why you are voting for Obama and keep positive. Remember - it's the ground game that is going to win it.

Obama/Biden 2012

[Chichiri]

2. +1

[Surya Gayatri]

4. Thanks for your FORWARD-looking perspective, Charlotte...

"Spread the news as to why you are voting for Obama and keep positive."

There you have it!

[bigdarryl]

3. SUNDAY!!! by that time the Vice President debate will be over what the heck are they talking about

[regnaD kciN]

5. That's a very interesting article...

It looks like, if nothing else, this election might turn out to be a showdown between this guy and Nate over their respective models -- since I sense the latter will have the race tied by Friday.

[yellowcanine]

6. They base it on what happened in July and August.

As compared to 2004. Interesting Analysis.

Of course Lichtman's Keys analysis says the same thing.

It is really hard to believe that one debate could be a game changer so I tend to think these guys are correct. People talk about the Reagan-Carter debate in 1980 but that election definitely fell within the predictions of Lichtman's Keys analysis. Reagan's performance may have given him a larger win but he would have won without any debates, imo.