270 to Win Presidential Simulator Will Make you Feel Better if You Support Obama

[courseofhistory]

Run it repeatedly and you will see based on current to date (in this case 10/9) polling data, Obama wins by decent margins each time.

http://www.270towin.com/simulation/

[Tx4obama]

1. The MAPS on the links below all look pretty good

Five Thirty Eight: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
(on the right side of the page)

Electoral-Vote: http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Election Projection: http://www.electionprojection.com/2012elections/president12.php

Talking Points Memo: http://core.talkingpointsmemo.com/election/scoreboard

[octoberlib]

2. Thank you for this

I had friends on FB breaking out the vodka and generally freaking after Maddow's show tonight. This should put things in perspective.

[courseofhistory]

3. I ran a few more simulations after posting the OP

and after about 18 more, one simulation showed Romney winning but only after Obama lost FL, OH, NC and VA. Winning any one of those 4 would still give him a win. Show your friends the 270 to Win map and link. I follow the maps more than the rhetoic because the rhetoric is too biased.

[TroyD]

7. The importance of Ohio

Well, Obama is the underdog in NC, and he could lose FL & VA very easily if things were to go wrong, so you can see why Ohio is so important and why it has been priority #1 for the Obama Team. Not just this year btw, but with visits throughout the entire Obama term by Obama or Biden.

As long as Ohio holds throughout this debate fallout, Obama should be able to win it, and presumably some of the other states as well, like NH, NV, IO, and maybe CO or FL, even if NC and VA don't work out.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

17. We are working so hard in VA. I will be devastated if Obama loses. We really are working hard.

[RedStateLiberal]

4. Based on the electoral-vote.com Ras-free map...

...Romney's current best path is to win all of the following: NC VA MI CO FL to put him a 273 EVs.

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2012/Pres/Maps/Oct09-noras.html

I'd say that's a pretty steep hill to climb. NC is currently tied and all the rest are "Barely Dem".

[ranmoo49]

5. i suppoprt president obama

i did not think there was anything that could scare me more than the possibility of a palin inheriting the white house-until now-romney is like trying to debate a 4 yr old that has just been caught writing on the wall and wants you to believe he didn't do it

[bigwillq]

6. Hello

Welcome to DU!

[Angry Dragon]

12. and his back-up is palin with a penis

[driver8]

16. "Palin with a Penis"!! Classic!! n/t

[abumbyanyothername]

8. Any simulator that has VA and NC blue

while PA, CO and FL are red has some serious flaws in its model.

[courseofhistory]

9. They aren't

blue in some of the simulations. You have to run a lot to see the nuances/differences.

[abumbyanyothername]

10. I ran more than one.

I can tell you right now that they are leaning too far right in the north east (one sim even had NJ red) and too far left in the mid atlantic.

Nate Silver's work is the strongest meta-poll site (although he crunches economic news in there too).

Rand has the best tracker.

[MFM008]

11. Ohio before Florida

I think Ohio will be blue before Florida.

[davidn3600]

13. I agree with this

Ohio is ground zero. If we lose Ohio, we are probably going to lose Florida and North Carolina. Which means it would come down to some mix of VA, CO, IA, NH, and NV to get to 270.

If Ohio goes blue, Florida may then follow. And that would make it a rather quick night.

Ohio is the queen on the chessboard.

[VespertineIconoclast]

15. I couldn't agree with you more. n/t

[bushisanidiot]

14. I'm not worried about it.

we've got the electoral votes to win.

republicans rose colored glasses aren't going to help them one bit on election day
when there will be a record number of registered republicans who sit this one out.