Nate Silver Oct. 9: Romney Erases Obama’s Convention Bounce in Forecast

[courseofhistory]

October 9, 2012, 9:37 pmComment

Oct. 9: Romney Erases Obama’s Convention Bounce in Forecast

By NATE SILVER

Following another day of strong polling on Tuesday, Mitt Romney advanced into the best position in the FiveThirtyEight forecast since the party conventions. His chances of winning the Electoral College are now 28.8 percent in the forecast, his highest since Aug. 29. For the first time since Aug. 28, President Obama is projected to win fewer than 300 electoral votes. And Mr. Obama’s projected margin of victory in the national popular vote — 2.0 percentage points — represents the closest the race has been since June 27.


The forecast model is not quite ready to jump on board with the notion that the race has become a literal toss-up; Mr. Romney will need to maintain his bounce for a few more days, or extend it into high-quality polls of swing states, before we can be surer about that.

But we are ready to conclude that one night in Denver undid most of the advantage Mr. Obama had appeared to gain in September

...

However, the “now-cast” put Mr. Obama ahead by about five percentage points in advance of the debate, meaning that Mr. Romney’s gains are not quite enough to have erased Mr. Obama’s advantage entirely.

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[wisteria]

1. A shame that people don't see through the Romney act.

And, don't appear to have been paying much attention before the debate. No point wring our hands over what was. Lets change what is presently. We can not allow Romney to become president.

[courseofhistory]

2. I agree

Last edited Wed Oct 10, 2012, 12:21 AM - Edit history (1)

If people have a way to get the word out online with tweets, etc. and in person in their communities and neighborhoods, they MUST do it!

[TroyD]

3. It's really too bad that Obama blew it in the debate

We had such a great DNC convention and Bill Clinton gave Obama a good bump, and now Nate says that is gone.

Just like that - in 90 minutes.

Well, the one positive I guess we should look at is that this may wake up Obama HQ to fight back harder next time and for Obama voters who were thinking of staying home because it was 'in the bag' to come out and vote!