Politico: Romeny's Post Debate Bounce, Will It Last?

[Doctor Jack]

A new headline story from Politico seems to cut through the melodrama of the moment and looks at how large Romney's post-debate bounce really is and whether it will actually last much longer.

I think the first few lines summarize the article nicely

It’s now clear that Mitt Romney got a bounce from the first presidential debate. But pollsters warn that it’s far from certain how big or how lasting such a bounce will be.

The GOP presidential nominee certainly has momentum from his performance in Denver last Wednesday — but most of the gains being attributed to him are the result of a single poll released Monday by the respected Pew Research Center that showed a 12-point swing in Romney’s direction. That’s enough to start the cable talking heads and political scribes chattering but doesn’t necessarily mean a permanent groundswell of support for the Republican.


http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1012/82221.html

[hrmjustin]

1. Shame on Pew for doing a piss poor job on that poll.

[Doctor Jack]

2. The article hints that it was probably an outlier

And probably an extreme one at that.

[Tutonic]

6. K/R

Oversampled conservatives, and independents from southern states. It is a piss poor poll that concludes there is a statistical tie in support by women. So Obama went from 22 points up on September 15th to a dead even tie? And those southern independents? Lets just say that this poll heavily included Republican leaning voters. How could PEW release this nonsense at a critical time as this? Bottom line--the Romney and Obama internals show this race leaning in Obama's direction. Romney will keep spinnin and Rachel and Ed will keep carryin water for him. Let's keep looking FORWARD.

[ShadowLiberal]

7. both the earlier poll and later ones were likely outliers

I think the 8 point lead Obama had in the old poll was an outlier, that probably gave him 2 or 3 more points over Romney then he really had (for a 5 or 6 point lead).

The new poll is also likely an outlier, only the other way.

Polls on average have a 5% margin of error, which means 1 out of 20 polls will be an outlier, and there's hundreds of polls published for this election, which means a few dozen outlier polls.

[gateley]

3. This too shall pass. :-)

[Doctor Jack]

4. But the melodrama will linger

[gateley]

8. I hope so! Like somebody else posted, s/he doesn't think politics is

boring anymore!

[thevoiceofreason]

5. Fading already.

Watch Gallup and Ipsos this week - especially Friday and Saturday.

[MowTin]

9. Depends on the next debate

If Obama flops again, the bounce will last. Obama is going to have his hands full arguing economics with a private equity CEO who talks 3x faster than him.