NATE SILVER: "It's possible Bernie Sanders will win every single caucus from here on out"

[FourScore]

Nate Silver 5:35 PM

While Clinton has won the first two caucuses in the Democratic race — while losing New Hampshire, the only primary — it’s possible that Bernie Sanders will win every state caucus from here on out.

Here’s why I say that. The remaining Democratic states to hold caucuses are: Alaska, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Kansas, Maine, Minnesota, Nebraska, Washington and Wyoming. Other than Hawaii — where I’m not going to pretend we have any earthly idea what’s going to happen — those are a bunch of really white states that otherwise look favorable for Sanders and which he could win even if he slightly trails Clinton nationally.

Clinton is probably favored in the territorial caucuses in American Samoa, Guam and the Virgin Islands, however, as territorial caucuses tend to heavily favor “establishment” candidates.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/nevada-caucus-south-carolina-primary-presidential-election-2016/?#livepress-update-16903922

[Rosa Luxemburg]

1. Well isn't that something!

[roguevalley]

12. he's up 14 points over her here in Alaska. I'm going to the fucking

caucus in March if I have to walk there.

[AngryAmish]

37. If there is a fucking caucus I am moving to Alaska

With lube.

[A Little Weird]

42. Lol! n/t

[roguevalley]

46. BWAHAHAHAHA! AngryAmish, you can sit next to me. :D:D:D

[MohRokTah]

2. It is possible.

It's also just as possible that Hillary will win them all because all of those states are very conservative and may not go for a Socialist. I know it is extremely doubtful he could win in Wyoming, for example.

[k8conant]

6. You forget that...

Wyoming's conservatives are Republicans.

[MohRokTah]

7. So are Wyoming's Democrats

I spent more than half my life there and my family still lives there.

The politics in Wyoming are just slightly to the right of Ghengis Khan.

[k8conant]

9. Well, I hope my brother's family will cancel out...

your right-wing family.

[MohRokTah]

10. Lifelong Democrats all.

Sanders has no ground game in the state. Hilary has workers all over the state.

[roguevalley]

13. she hasn't got a prayer in Alaska

[MohRokTah]

17. For the most part, agreed eom

[Ken Burch]

23. And Alaska is heavily multiracial

Alaska Natives(Native Americans of Alaska), Filipinos, Latinos, Samoans, significant AA communities in Juneau, Anchorage and Fairbanks, a surprisingly large Muslim community,...we are Not "a really white state".

If we were, Jesse Jackson wouldn't have won our caucuses in 1988.

[Blue_In_AK]

18. Bernie would do much better in the general here,

I'm sure of it.

[roguevalley]

19. I agree and he would get cross over repubs. Hi, Blue. :D

[Lorien]

14. No wonder you think Hillary will play well there. nt

[MohRokTah]

15. It's not Hillary playing well, it's Sanders playing poorly. eom

[Betty Karlson]

39. "Socialist!" has no scary ring to it for anyone born after 1980.

Did you get the memo about the end of the 20th century?

[Skwmom]

3. Not if the fix is in. n/t

[bobbobbins01]

4. She probably just wants to fix it enough to give her that little push.

Now that people are wondering why she seems to eek out caucus victories, she'll probably back off to avoid suspicions.

[BreakfastClub]

27. There's no "fix." I am not believing the conspiracies around here!! nt

[Recursion]

5. OTOH Samoa has a posed off pro independence bloc

Which I could see supporting Sanders.

[Blue_In_AK]

8. I read here a few days ago

that Bernie has a 14-point lead over Hillary in Alaska. And this state is not as lily-white as they imply. Not as many AAs here as some other places, but we do have a large Native Alaskan, Pacific Islander and Asian population.

[Buzz cook]

11. Given my past experience

I'd say Sanders has a very good chance to win Washington. Our caucuses tend to be more liberal than the party as a whole.

So Washington is Sanders to lose.

[artislife]

20. I amgoing and my pricinct is in Bellevue.

I got two more Bernie supporters going, too.

[fun n serious]

25. Only Seattle really. nt

[Eko]

16. Cool,

Sanders would be great!!! Plenty of my friends, some of who have been republican until recently, are rooting for him. Clinton would be good but Sanders would be great!!!

[Ken Burch]

21. Alaska and Colorado are NOT "really white states"

Unless Latinos, Filipinos, Pacific Islanders and Native Americans are all white now...which would be news to them.

And today's results totally discredit the "only white people support Bernie" meme.

Bernie is only

[bettyellen]

22. Bernie lost every majority latino area....

most by large margins. the polls were way the hell off. they didn't poll urban areas- whoops.

[Ken Burch]

24. He carried Latinos in Iowa and Nevada. That is not in dispute. n/t.

[bettyellen]

26. Not in Nevada, nope. That polling was of by 8% or so in total, named Bernie the winner....

Hillary won everywhere there is a heavy Latino presence. Bernie swept the whiter precincts. The poll was useless again.
Why do you think people were yelling at Huerta to "get off the stage"- because they were winning?

[Ken Burch]

28. Bernie carried the Latino vote.

And it makes no sense that Dolores Huerta is backing a candidate who has no Bobby Kennedy passion for defending the powerless.

The immigration bill she's mad about was morally discredited by the slave labor guest worker provisions.

[bettyellen]

30. Nope. Look at maps, and do the math. The poll you refer to was completely discredited.

[w4rma]

32. CBS News: In Nevada, Hillary Clinton wins black voters, loses Hispanics

That's not to say Clinton can relax after Nevada. Even after her campaign tried to call Sanders' commitment to immigration reform into question and Clinton promised to put forward immigration legislation on the issue during her first 100 days in office, she lost Latino voters to Sanders 53 percent to 45 percent.

South Carolina does not have a large population of Hispanic voters, but Texas and Colorado do, and both will go to the polls on Super Tuesday. If Sanders' success among Latinos extends beyond Nevada, that could spell trouble for Clinton in delegate-rich states like Florida, New York and California and give Sanders staying power.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/nevada-democratic-caucus-hillary-clinton-wins-black-voters-loses-hispanics/

[Metric System]

33. They're basing that on the entrance poll. The actual results say otherwise.

[w4rma]

34. You would like to believe that, but everyone is saying that you are wrong. (nt)

[Bohunk68]

36. That has been debunked all over the place.

[dsc]

43. Iowa didn't poll Latnios at all

and she carried people of color, the category Latinos were grouped in. Not only is it in dispute it is the opposite of a fact. Your are plain, flat out, making shit up.

[Major Hogwash]

29. It's not only possible, it's highly likely.

Because Hillary lost in all of those states in 2008.

[6chars]

31. Is there an election for caucus President?

It's about delegates in every state. This is like saying Hillary has the edge in states beginning with S, T and U.

[firebrand80]

35. He's already President of the Internet nt

[DCBob]

38. And even if he does it will have little impact on final result.

Those are very small delegate states.

[Robbins]

40. no it's not

the fix Is in.clinton will win every caucus.the dem establishment has them all fixed.

Silver is doing what the dem establishment wants.trick people into thinking they have choice.

[kgnu_fan]

41. ol, let's go....

[Igel]

44. It's possible I'll suffocate in the next second

as all the air molecules in the room randomly wind up in the upper SE corner.

If we just talk possibility, then the best we can say it's highly improbable and not impossible.

As for the caucuses, the data I've seen so far (neither ignoring it nor obsessing about it) shows a lot of variation but even stronger divergence between reality and assumptions. Predictive statistics relies on assumptions.

I'll go with a "he'll win some, he'll lose some." And since my opinion's irrelevant and reality doesn't give a rat's assumption about what I think, and since the events haven't been held yet, I'll be a nice observer and observe while letting my adrenals and para-adrenals rest.

[Skwmom]

45. With the planned chaos, ditry tricks we've seen so far?

[Gothmog]

47. Politico has a good article on the Sanders' campaign decision to focus on caucuses

A while back the Sanders team was focusing on caucus states and taking a play out of the Obama playbook in part due to the realization that many more diverse primary states will be difficult for Sanders to compete in prhttp://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/bernie-sanders-iowa-obama-playbook-218137

The Sanders campaign is finalizing plans for its alternative route to the Democratic nomination, a classic insurgent strategy that is heavily reliant on the limited number of states holding caucuses.
Story Continued Below

The idea is to take advantage of the caucus format, which tends to reward campaigns with the most dedicated partisans. The caucuses play to Sanders’ strength in another important way – they are largely held in states that are heavily white, which helps Sanders neutralize Clinton’s edge with minority voters.

With a dozen such contests coming before the end of March – and Clinton expected to perform well on March 1, the first big multi-state primary day -- the caucuses are emerging as an integral part of Sanders’ long-shot plan.

“Caucuses are very good for Bernie Sanders,” explained chief Sanders strategist Tad Devine, likening the 2016 strategy to the one he deployed as Mike Dukakis’ field director in 1988. “Caucuses tend to be in the much-lower turnout universe, and having people who intensely support you in events like that makes a huge difference. You saw that with President Obama in 2008, and you’re going to see it with Bernie Sanders."
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/01/bernie-sanders-iowa-obama-playbook-218137#ixzz40lc9azQk

I have a feeling that Sanders may continue to rely on caucus states but there are too few delegates in these states to make a difference

[MrMickeysMom]

48. Sounds like a fucking race-baiting comment to me...

Nate Silver can go pound salt up where his head likes to go. Meanwhile, it will be because of hard work in remaining states, and not because only white people can hear the message.

Jeebus H K-righst!