2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhat is most important about today's Gallup Poll...
is not so much the likely or even registered voter preferences, but Obama's job numbers. The voter preferences is over the course of seven days, so still includes Romney post-debate bumps.
The job numbers are 3-day rolling averages, which means that they are Sat, Sun & Monday as the new unemployment numbers came out. Today Obama's approval went up 2-points. It's hard to think that a president with a 53/42 job approval would be behind, and my guess is that going into this weekend and early next week we will see improvements for Obama in both the registered and likely voter categories as well--reflecting these job numbers. (Also a good debate by Biden would help!).
GALLUP DAILY
Oct 6-8, 2012 Updates daily at 1 p.m. ET; reflects one-day change
Obama Approval53%+2 Obama Disapproval42%-2
TexasCPA
(527 posts)I think voters were turned off by Obama's perceived weakness in the past debate. He needs to come out stronger in the next debate to reassure the public that he is not a total wimp.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)leftynyc
(26,060 posts)to actually call Romney a liar? I'm torn over that. I'm more a fan of fact vs fiction as an argument.
TexasCPA
(527 posts)just like Ted Kennedy did it.
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)Strong debates by Biden this week and Obama next Tuesday should help solidify those numbers.
Maybe the president has learned his lesson.
The president is sitting on an approval rating over 50%. It is indeed hard to believe that people approve of him but are not likely to vote for him. That's a ridiculous assertion, which leads me to believe that you're right: the Likely Voters are 3-day rolling averages that haven't fully captured the good news on the economy.
I have the same opinion of the new Reuters/Ispos that was just released.
Julien Sorel
(6,067 posts)It's all part of the amazingawesomechessgrandmaster's Brilliant Plan. I know, because I read it here. If he goes out and has a great debate, that will be part of the plan; if he goes out and has a(nother) terrible debate, that, too, will be part of the plan. If more polls come out and he's behind, that will be part of the plan; if more polls come out and he's ahead, that will be proof of the amazingawesomebrilliance of the plan. If he wins the election, that will prove the plan was amazingincrediblechessgrandmasterly; if he loses, that, too will be part of the plan. Just trust to his amazingawesomechessgrandmasterlybrilliance, and all will be well.