2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumAccording To Gallup The President Has Two Challenges
He needs to maintain his current five point lead among registered voters and close the five point gap between registered and likely voters. That five point gap between registered and likely voters is large by historical standards. It's usually around two percent.
A decent debate performance will maintain the lead and close the enthusiasm gap which explains the gap between Obama and Romney among likely voters. As of now more of the people who say they will vote for Romney will vote.
As an aside Gallup uses one of the narrowest screens in the business.
mzmolly
(51,010 posts)I'm very glad that Obama is showing his pre-debate numbers in the RV column of late.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,716 posts)A lot of the days we were happy that the president was winning in the Gallup Poll he was probably losing. If Gallup shows a five point gap between likely and registered voters and the president was winning by three or four among registered voters he was probably losing by one or two among their model's likely voters.
I look at a lot of polls and they suggest the African American participation and Latino share of the electorate will be down from 2008. That is disappointing.
I will add if Obama goes into the election leading by at least three percent or so among registered voters I don't see him losing the election.