Post your predictions for Nevada if you're so inclined.

[DisgustipatedinCA]

Mine:
53% Sanders
47% Clinton

(Take heart, Clinton voters--I can't predict the future for shit).

[Tommy_Carcetti]

1. Carolina 30, Denver 10. nt

[DisgustipatedinCA]

2. Glad I left you enough room to walk that one in. :)

[Tommy_Carcetti]

6. That was my actual prediction, FWIW.

As you could see, it didn't amount to much.

[DisgustipatedinCA]

10. In that case, you may be like me in that my predictions can be awful, but I keep doing it anyway.

[FSogol]

3. I predict that groups on DU will have a massive temper tantrum and fixate on any perceived

injustice (real or imagined) and flood GD: P with hysterical nonsense and pitifully naive solutions, generating many hidden posts and timeouts.

What'd I win?

[DisgustipatedinCA]

7. You win the DU Observational Historian of the Week Award. nt

[Kalidurga]

70. I was going to give you a cookie, but I think this is in order instead

[Qutzupalotl]

4. Sanders by 2

but Clinton gets 6,000 more superdelegates.

[DisgustipatedinCA]

8. right. I hope that doesn't become an issue at the convention.

It would serve to tear the party to pieces. But it looks like they're considering all their options. We'll see.

[2banon]

20. good one! :)

have to laugh at this juncture.. save the crying for later when that actually happens.

[berniepdx420]

57. +420

[winter is coming]

5. Narrow margin (3% or less) either way. n/t

[DisgustipatedinCA]

9. My guess comports with yours. thanks. nt

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

11. Green 00. nt

[Binkie The Clown]

12. Somebody will win, and somebody will lose. I won't name names.

The loser, reeling from the shock of it, won't be able to understand how this could have happened to her.

[DisgustipatedinCA]

14. I'm not good with pronouns. But Fiorina dropped out already. :)

Thanks for your prediction.

[plus5mace]

13. 55 Bernie - 44 HRC - 1 VS

Basis - Hillary's campaign has gone boldly negative, and that seems to be accelerating. This is not necessary or smart unless her internals are telling us something the public polling is not. I don't trust the polling much in primaries. The usual turnout is so low that increased participation can totally throw off the expected result.

Of course I could be wrong. It may be that going fully negative is Hillary's natural campaign style, regardless of whether she is comfortably ahead.

[DisgustipatedinCA]

16. Wow...that's bold. And I hope you're right. Everyone keeps saying NV is difficult to poll.

I'll say that if he wins by 11 points, there will be some serious conversations about her future.

[2banon]

22. I really like the sound of that !

[plus5mace]

26. To be fair, my first prediction was that Bernie had no chance.

He proved my skepticism was tainted with cynicism by doing what he's done. I still can hardly believe it, and it fills me with an anxious dread. We have always been tended to by our betters - are we truly ready for democracy? And Bernie will face a mutiny in the general election. The other half of the McGovern story is how much of the Democratic party worked against him in the campaign. We have many mountains to climb to reach our destination.

[berniepdx420]

59. Sounds great...music to my ears

[R. Daneel Olivaw]

15. There will be a winner and a loser.

[DisgustipatedinCA]

17. ...but that ain't no big deal, cause the simple man pays the bills, the bills that kill?

[ram2008]

18. 51 Hillary 49% Bernie, although I hope the numbers are reversed nt

[DisgustipatedinCA]

19. I appreciate the answer, and in my unfortunate opinion, you could very well be right.

49% would still be a great showing for Sanders, but a win would be better, there's no denying it.

[dana_b]

66. you and I have pretty much the same projection n/t

[ram2008]

68. Looks like what the exit polls are pointing to, oh boy, lol nt

[0rganism]

21. i predict Nevada will become the 36th state in 1864 and remain sparsely populated into the 21st C

hmm, that's not much of a prediction, is it?

ok, here goes: Iowa redux, 49-49, and there will be great wailing and gnashing of teeth in various forums about the unfairness of it all

[DisgustipatedinCA]

23. I'm marking you down for predicting the coin will land on its side. It will likely be very close.

[0rganism]

71. last night i watched the Trailblazers knock over the Warriors by 32 points

this has been a year of surprises so far, i'm probably just going to stop making predictions about politics and sports entirely pretty soon

[frylock]

24. Based on threads posted here today, Sanders by 5%

[DisgustipatedinCA]

25. Are you extrapolating that because you've noted an uptick in Sanders support here...

...it may be reflective of something larger happening? I know the rest of the country will never be 85% Sanders like DU apparently is, but a big swing here can often indicate something shifting underfoot in the larger nation, and I wondered if that's what you were getting at. Thanks.

[frylock]

28. Nah, all the posts about alleged repub shenanigans leads me to believe her internals..

are in the crapper. It looks to me like they're greasing the skids for another loss.

[DisgustipatedinCA]

30. Got it. Boy, did I go with the wrong cue. Thanks for the explanation.

[frylock]

33. Ah, no prob.

[HooptieWagon]

27. Bernie 52, Hillary 48.

[DisgustipatedinCA]

29. Thanks, HooptieWagon.

[virtualobserver]

31. Bernie 61 Hillary 38

I'm from the future....48 hours in the future.....Bernie wins and there are still no flying cars!

[DisgustipatedinCA]

32. a 23-point spread would have newspapers saying things like HISTORIC in very large print.

[virtualobserver]

38. Sheldon Edelson's newspaper called it a virtual tie.

[DisgustipatedinCA]

43. Good point. Adelson minus 23 to get to the truth of the thing. I can see that.

[speaktruthtopower]

34. Not sure but..

I think a lot of progressives want to send a message that they can't be taken for granted.

Caucuses are unpredictable.

[DisgustipatedinCA]

40. I think that however the contest turns out, we will hear the message you're speaking of.

[benny05]

35. Clinton by a nose

But I'm hopeful for Bernie!

[DisgustipatedinCA]

39. I am too, but there's also a part of me preparing for a Clinton win.

I posted a guess of Sanders by 3 points, but that doesn't mean I'm certain, and I'm not. But yes, I'm very hopeful too.

[Attorney in Texas]

36. I think Sanders will take Nevada (and Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Vermont, Kansas

Nebraska, Maine, Michigan, Missouri, Arizona, Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, Wisconsin, and Wyoming).

That takes through the next two months.

These results over the next two months will so significantly change the landscape that it is too difficult to predict how the states will play out from that point forward.

[DisgustipatedinCA]

41. Thanks. You're putting it all out there...looking for the trifecta on the Daily Double.

I hope you're right.

[Attorney in Texas]

44. The betting markets and the state-by-state cross-tabs in the national polls are showing a real

groundswell for Sanders in these states.

In Nevada, I think Sanders' win will be closer than in New Hampshire but not tied like Iowa was (that gives me a 22% margin of error - I'm pretty comfortable with that).

[Live and Learn]

37. I think you are right. nt

[DisgustipatedinCA]

42. If I am, then we split the prize money. We just need a prize money donor now.

[Chichiri]

45. Hillary 6, Bernie 19, Vermin Supreme 78.

Given how hard it is to poll Nevada, my guess is as good as anyone's.

That said, and for what it's worth, 538 projects Hillary 52, Sanders 46. Very weak confidence, though.

[DisgustipatedinCA]

46. Kicking for caucus day. Who want to get their predictions in while it's still early?

[TSIAS]

47. I think Sanders will win

I'll admit that's not based on a whole lot of evidence. Just speculating based on the attitudes of the respective campaigns.

[DisgustipatedinCA]

49. We're all a little in the dark in Nevada. They say it's really hard to poll.

So I was totally pulling numbers out of my...ear. I just like to make the prediction anyway. Thanks for your prediction--I hope we're both right.

[Matariki]

48. YUUUGE!

Well actually, probably close to a tie. But my tea leaves said 'yuuuge' this morning. We'll know soon enough.

[geek tragedy]

50. (share of 2 person vote) 54 Sanders 46 Clinton

Bernie's supporters are a lot more motivated and he overperforms polls while Clinton underperforms. There's just not that much enthusiasm for a candidate running as a cautious legacy keeper.

[DisgustipatedinCA]

51. Thanks, gt. I assigned some real weight to a story I read this morning

It was about the union that isn't making an endorsement this time around because their leadership wants to endorse Clinton, but their rank-and-file don't. I can't translate that into some number of votes, but it made my ears perk up. Thanks for the reply.

[morningfog]

52. Sanders 51, Hillary 49.

[DisgustipatedinCA]

54. I'll take it. A Sanders win changes the news cycle, and it puts a big question mark over SC.

To be clear, I still think South Carolina will go for Clinton, but it may become very tight.

[morningfog]

56. I think Bernie needs to keep SC within 15, ideally within 10z

If more than 15 point spread in SC, the story will be "his problem with African Americans."

[DisgustipatedinCA]

58. My personal belief is that if the South Carolina primary was held today, he'd lose by about 7%.

I arrived at that number by carefully studying the recesses of my brain and then making up a number I thought sounded about right.

[berniepdx420]

53. I second your prediction of 53 bernie 47 clinton... could be as good as 55 - 45

[DisgustipatedinCA]

55. You're the second person to say that. Now we'll have to split the prize money 3 ways.

Note: we're still looking for a benefactor to dole out the prize money.

[CentralMass]

60. Someone will win and the results will be mired in controversy

[CoffeeCat]

61. I predicted that Bernie would win NH by 22; and Iowa by 1

so I am doing better than most polls.

I'll say, Sanders by 6.5 percent.

Here was my NH prediction:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1179773

[DisgustipatedinCA]

62. Then you're as close to Nate Silver as we've got, and I LOVE the 6.5% prediction. Thanks!

[SoLeftIAmRight]

63. Sanders will do much better than Hillary and the Machine would ever imagine

...

[Hassin Bin Sober]

64. Pain

https://m.

[dana_b]

65. 49% Sanders 50% Clinton

I do think it will be a nail biter but she may just pull it out. I hope that I am wrong!!!

fingers crossed...

[DisgustipatedinCA]

67. Maybe. I'm really starting to feel a Sanders win, but I've been wrong too many times.

Here's hoping he blows it away and we don't all chew our nails off hoping he edges her out.

[BainsBane]

69. Clinton by 3-5 points.

[DisgustipatedinCA]

72. Thank you. nt

[BainsBane]

74. Looks like my guess is the closest.

With 95% of precincts reporting, Clinton is up 5.5 points.

[Btrain]

75. Clinton by 6%

6%.

[tgards79]

76. I wish I'd seen this in advance....

...because we nailed it!
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2016/02/nevada-d-and-south-carolina-r-go.html

[SidDithers]

77. Well, you got the numbers right...nt

Sid