Why Bernie Sanders Is In Deep Trouble In South Carolina

[MrWendel]

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/bernie-sanders-black-voters_us_56c61282e4b0c3c550541904

Without the black vote, Sanders doesn’t stand a chance.


A new Monmouth University poll shows that Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders has struggled to make inroads with black voters in South Carolina.

Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders has spent months trying to win over black voters -- a demographic that is essential to winning the key primary state of South Carolina -- but a new Monmouth University poll released Thursday shows the Vermont senator has made minimal inroads with the group since November.

The poll, in which Sanders trails former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton by 29 percentage points, shows that black South Carolina voters have remained unconvinced that he would do a good job addressing concerns pertaining to African-Americans. Overall, 43 percent of black voters are confident in Sanders compared with 73 percent who are confident in Clinton.

A larger portion of black voters have arrived at a decision on how well Sanders would address the concerns of African-Americans since a November Monmouth poll. Fourteen percent of black voters now say Sanders would do an excellent job -- up 6 points since November -- and 29 percent think he would do a good job -- down 3 points. That’s an overall improvement of 3 points.

Thirty-four percent say Sanders would do an "only fair" job -- up 2 points since November -- and 11 percent say he would do a poor job -- a 4-point increase.

Comparatively, black voters continue to place a great deal of faith in Clinton and her ability to meet the needs of African-Americans. Three in 10 black voters say she'd do an excellent job while over 4 in 10 say she'd do a good job. Twenty-two percent think she'd perform an "only fair" job and just 1 percent say she'd do a poor job.

(More in link)

[EndElectoral]

1. Bernie won't win deep south Dixie votes. HRC will, but those Dixie States will be Repub in the GE!

[uponit7771]

11. They're only dixie states in the context of a GE not a dem primary where progressive voters come

... out and vote

[EndElectoral]

14. My point is they're lost states in the GE anyway. HRC winning SC, does nothing to help in the GE

SC delegates help impact the primary choice, but electing her based on SC preferences does nothing in helping win in the overall GE.

[uponit7771]

18. K, the GE isn't the subject in the primary... so what we'll lose those in the GE... two different

... contexts

The people who vote in the primaries in the swing states are going to be the GOTv folk

[brush]

31. We're not contesting the GE now. Winning SC goes towards winning the dem nomination

That's the point right now not whether SC goes blue or red in November.

[basselope]

27. If they are voting for Hillary, they aren't progressive.

[uponit7771]

29. Typical... everyone else is the devil :rolleyes:

[basselope]

43. not everyone

But to call someone voting for Hillary a progressive is laughable

[kristopher]

36. I think Bernie might take a number of southern states in the GE.

His platform is supported by about 70% of the public - even in the reddest of states. If we can move the voters away from identity politics and turn them into economic issue voters, he wins.

[Cali_Democrat]

2. Blacks aren't easily fooled.

That's why the GOP has given up on even trying to get the black vote.

Now the Republicans try to suppress the black vote by passing voter ID laws.

[Bohemianwriter]

4. Then I hope they won't...

be fooled by Hillary's doubletalk....

[Cali_Democrat]

7. ...

http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2016/02/sanders-campaign-has-crossed-neverland

[Bohemianwriter]

15. Hasn't Mother Jones...

Already endorsed Hillary?

How does this link in any way dispell Hillary's double talk?

And are these numbers that back voters debate on a daily basis around the dinner table?

&list=WL&index=15

[Cali_Democrat]

16. They endorsed Hillary?

Link?

[Bohemianwriter]

20. Must have read it..

in a post from here somewhere...so I can unfortunately not give any link but to speculate.

It's beside the point anyway.

I call that article for what it is:

Concern trolling.

People who never gave a flying F about the economy before all of a sudden portray themselves as economists "concerned" about economic growth and costs.

Never even entered people's minds when the war drums against Iraw was playing, and all dissent was suppressed. But when it comes to actually helping people, then the quasi economists crawl out of the woodworks. Never mind the Wall Street criminals. They are untouchable. They are after all..."job creators"...

And someone giving their vote of confidence to someone who has made 4 wrong decisions/votes on war that has cost trillions of dollars, millions of people's lives, and more refugees, maimed and wounded does not have the right to say "I am not fooled!"

That's exactly what Hillary voters are. Fooled! Unless they are esablishment and have been gaming the system,
While being more than happy to cheer the same dirty tactics used against Obama a PoC in 2008...

[uponit7771]

19. Yeap, more magic numbers from planet Unicorpia

[Fawke Em]

24. As opposed to being talked down to like little children.

Clinton was hateful last night as she was explaining why we can never do anything.

[uponit7771]

25. Unnnn, they both can be condescending

[Ned_Devine]

26. I disagree. Her mannerisms are very obvious and predictable

Case in point was when the Bernie supporter asked her a question. She became more agitated the longer she went on and ended by somewhat scolding the man who asked her. While I understand she needs to defend herself, I've definitely noticed a pattern of her really being condescending when she is challenged.

[NurseJackie]

6. The mistake is theirs to make. But ...

... I don't think it's an accidental mistake or a mere oversight. It appears to be intentional and calculated. They know exactly what they're doing, and it seems that they (or someone in charge) believes that the rewards are worth the risks.

I think it reveals much more about their character and intentions than they believe.

People are paying attention. We're watching. Proceed with caution.

[kristopher]

39. So you don't approve of people who try to suppress the AA vote?

How do you reconcile this:

In 2008, it was clear to her campaign manager, and close family friend, Mark Penn, that Obama was going to dominate the Black Vote. So, in an internal memo leaked by campaign staff and a memo that Hillary would have read and had to have condoned as her campaign strategy, it said this:

1) Start with a base of women.
a. For these women you represent a breaking of barriers
b. The winnowing out of the most competent and qualified in an unfair, male dominated world
c. The infusion of a woman and a mother’s sensibilities into a world of war and neglect
2) Add on a base of lower and middle class voters
a. You see them; you care about them
b. You were one of them, it is your history
c. You are all about their concerns (healthcare, education, energy, child care, college etc.)
d. Sense of patriotism, Americana
3) Play defensively with the men and upper class voters
a. Strength to end the war the right way
b. Connect on the problems of the global economy, economics
c. Foreign policy expert
d. Unions
Contest the black vote at every opportunity. Keep him pinned down there.
Organize on college campuses. We may not be number 1 there, but we have a lot of fans—more than enough to sustain an organization in every college.

Thanks to Berni McCoy from bringing this out.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511272815

[mythology]

42. That interpretation requires some serious pretzel twisting

Nobody who doesn't either blindly follow Sanders and/or blindly hates Clinton would make that leap.

[BillZBubb]

3. Clinton's "firewall" holds. It must be nice to be taken for granted.

No surprise that Clinton will do well in the red states. She's more conservative than Sanders.

[uponit7771]

13. Nah, how bout Sanders not associating his campaign with someone who calls Americas first black prez

... "n-word-izzed"?!?

For starters?

[noretreatnosurrender]

30. Understandable

I can understand some Obama supporters not liking Cornell West for his statements against Obama but for me he is one voice among many who support Sanders. I agree with some things Mr. West says and disagree with others. Now if Bernie had Kissinger supporting him and advising him I could not support him because I think Kissinger is a war criminal. Others may make a different decision.

Each voter has to make up their own mind about what is in their best interest or even to vote against their best interest if they want. It's their vote not mine. As I've said before I don't expect Bernie to win SC. That's too big a lift. I do expect him to campaign hard in SC and make his case. I of course hope that he will earn more black votes than the polls would indicate because it's important to me to have a campaign that represents all of us.

[uponit7771]

32. Unnnn, Bigga is more of a microcosm of the Sanders critique; not relative. People wanted and FDR

... president with an FDR agenda and didn't deliver the FDR congress which was 70 - 80% on average.

[noretreatnosurrender]

35. Sorry

I don't understand what your saying in your post?

[bvf]

41. What?

[KingFlorez]

5. Black voters are not all that liberal

At least not the activist type of liberal that goes for the sort of rhetoric that certain candidates put out.

[Bluenorthwest]

8. South Carolina is one of the most conservative States, also a bastion of Christian intolerance

They have the strongest anti gay laws in the country and are very unlikely to vote for any candidate who is not laced with old time religion, Jesus flavored.
SC 08 was Clinton campaign bashing the Obama 'fairy tale' while Obama ran rallies with venomous anti gay preachers to gain some votes. Then of course in the General it went to McCain with 53.87% because it is a conservative State. So all the gay basing and racist dog whistling was done just for Democratic delegates there. Charming politics they have.

[uponit7771]

10. That doesn't describe the progressive voters in that state at all

[w4rma]

21. South Carolina doesn't have many progressive voters.

Neoliberals, maybe.

[uponit7771]

9. That and the rest of the SEC states

[AgingAmerican]

12. We have heard predictions of doom from Hillary supporters for seven months now

None of which have come true.

[dana_b]

40. and his numbers overall keep going up, up, up

However no, he won't win SC, GA, Fl and the deep south.

BUT more and more POC (who live in all states, not just the southern states) are now listening to Bernie, taking him into consideration and will make up their own minds very soon. I don't think that Hillary has them wrapped up like she think that she does.

[HooptieWagon]

17. Sanders won't win SC, but he'll do well enough to call the 'firewall' into doubt.

He's been steadily making up ground, it's possible the gap on primary day will be in single digits.

[Orsino]

22. He began a relative unknown.

I'd say he's now in the least amount of trouble he's ever been. And will be in less tomorrow.

For now, the momentum is his; I hope the trend continues.

[Fawke Em]

23. He's not.

He'll be in Greenville Sunday. I plan to be there.

[John Poet]

28. "Deep trouble"? Hardly.

Hillary has long been expected to win the South Carolina primary.

She probably will win it.

Big fucking deal. It won't be as if she's beaten any expectations there.

[Gothmog]

33. Good Article

[SoLeftIAmRight]

34. a red state that means nothing in the general election

...

[workinclasszero]

37. Without the black vote, Sanders doesn’t stand a chance.

Quoted for truth!

[Vinca]

38. Given the history of the Clintons, I'm totally puzzled by black voters.