Amid Volatile Polling, Keep an Eye on Election Fundamentals-Nate Silver 10/8/12

[courseofhistory]

Amid Volatile Polling, Keep an Eye on Election Fundamentals

By NATE SILVER

...

Mr. Obama got a bounce coming out of Charlotte, and it had some staying power — with his national lead appearing to peak at about five or six percentage points. But polling released immediately after the debate seemed to suggest that Mr. Romney had drawn into a rough national tie.

By the weekend, however — after the release of a favorable jobs report last Friday — Mr. Romney’s bounce seemed to be receding some. Tracking polls released on Monday by Gallup and Rasmussen Reports actually showed a shift back toward Mr. Obama, although another poll by Pew Research showed Mr. Romney with a four-point lead among likely voters.

Polling data is often very noisy, and not all polls use equally rigorous methodology. But the polls, as a whole, remain consistent with the idea that they may end up settling where they were before the conventions, with Mr. Obama ahead by about two points. Such an outcome would be in line with what history and the fundamentals of the economy would lead you to expect.


Electoral College Forecase
Romney
235.2
+17.3 since Oct. 1

Obama
302.8
-17.3 since Oct. 1

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[powergirl]

1. I always thought this election was similar to W vs. Kerry

And it looks like that is what Nate is telling us. Also, the media wants to make this so dramatic to keep up the viewer numbers. Good information and thanks for posting.

[TroyD]

2. 'I always thought this election was similar to W vs. Kerry'

That's not good.

We need it to be more like 2008.

[still_one]

3. I do not agree, I think we are much more together with the facts. No question the first debate was

Dismal, but there are 3 more to go, and no way will we make the same mistakes

[powergirl]

4. With Obama being the incumbent

he should be the winner based on the W vs. Kerry model. And the challenger, in this case Romney, loses based on Nate's explanation. I remember that election well since I voted for Kerry, of course. It is good to be on this side of the math.