The thing is, "it's the media narrative, stupid"...

[regnaD kciN]

For me, the most interesting point of the "debate bounce" last week was, not how much of it there was, but when it happened. If you look at the tracking-poll numbers released on Friday (and Ipsos/Reuters on Thursday night), it became clear that, counter to what I was expecting, the Thursday (and, in I/R's case, Wednesday-Thursday) numbers didn't show a big bounce for Romney at all. Rasmussen reported some movement, but not more than a point or so (otherwise, it would have changed the topline numbers in their three-day tracker). I/R showed a one-point Romney gain, but not much more than that.

Friday, however...in Friday's polling (released Saturday, or Friday night in I/R's case), we saw a three-point move to Romney in I/R, a four-point swing to him in Rasmussen, and a similar two-point swing in Gallup. As I explained, such a variance in a tracking poll must be multiplied by the days of the tracking poll to be able to divine the daily numbers, and what these indicated was that Romney gained around 12-14 points over the respective day that dropped off each poll (a different day for each). In other words, it wasn't just a bounce, it was a bloody tidal wave -- one that has, obviously, receded since.

So, what could cause the polls to change barely an uptick on Thursday, immediately in the shadow of the debate, but caused such a huge swing on Friday? Since nothing monumental happened to help Romney on Friday (and the only real news, the jobs report, favored Obama), the only thing I can think of is the growing media narrative -- basically, the public being inundated all Thursday and Friday morning with "OMG!!! ROMNEY WON!!! ROMNEY WON!!! ROMNEY WON!!!" from the news outlets. It's as if people had to be told by the media what they were supposed to be thinking, and then could jump on the bandwagon which the media presented them.

Which is what makes today so maddening. There are clear indications that, not only has the Romney bounce abated, but that things had even returned to the pre-debate status quo, with Obama regaining his Gallup lead and drawing back into a tie in Rasmussen (whose numbers should show even greater improvement for Obama tomorrow, as Friday's numbers drop off the back of their three-day poll). It looked like stability had finally returned to the race, and that this was what was going to be the new media narrative. Then, the Pew poll (which, for all purposes, looks to be heavily front-weighted toward Thursday and Friday) comes out, and what is the main story on the nightly news? "OMG!!! ROMNEY'S WINNING!!! ROMNEY'S WINNING!!! ROMNEY'S WINNING!!!" Worse yet, that same narrative is likely to continue tomorrow night as well, as the main focus of attention will be the PPP/DKos poll, also taken last Thursday and Friday, which we already know shows Romney ahead. (And, in fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see a whole raft of other polls, taken in mid-Romney bounce, emerge by tomorrow showing the same thing.) In other words, this adds up to yet another pro-Romney media narrative taking shape this week, just as it did on the day following the debate. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see yet another Romney mini-surge in the next few days, as bandwagon-jumpers decide to commit to the "winning" side -- which, in turn, is likely to show up in next week's polls from Pew, PPP, et. al., even if, once again, the polling returns to normal by the end of the weekend. It's infuriating...but I don't see any way to avoid it.

[FrenchieCat]

1. You say...."It's infuriating...but I don't see any way to avoid it. "....well I do see a way,

Folks here who are truly on the side of Obama winning reelection
need to stop responding to these folks who are posting all of the negative Obama polling.....

If they don't...they indeed are helping the corporate media build on the media's meme.....
which is what the corporate media wants anyways.

[regnaD kciN]

2. I don't understand...

How can refusing to respond to negative posters here affect the Corporate Media coverage?

[FrenchieCat]

4. Obviously you don't believe that this progressive site as well as others

have any influence whatsoever.

I'm from a difference school of thought.

We don't need to argue about it....and in fact, I won't.

[MADem]

3. +1,000,000! nt

[iemitsu]

5. this situation, which is maddening, may actually benefit the cause of progressives

and of those frustrated with the power of the media to sway public opinion.
americans of all description have discovered during this election season, that romney/ryan and other republicans are lying scum who would steal your grandmother's purse (or rather already have). that their ideas and policies favor the very rich, who don't need help and hurt struggling, working families.
many on both sides of the political spectrum already believed that either the corporate media or the liberal media were nothing more than propaganda tools for their respective sides.
forcing the press to air the fact-checkers conclusions has revealed media complicity in all the lies.
the debate coverage reinforces that notion.
we may be headed for a period of cleansing in america.

[TroyD]

6. We can't ignore the media narrative, we have to shape it

For the first part of this campaign Team Obama did a very good job in controlling the media narrative.

But Axelrod and company have dropped the ball with the debate. They need to pick it back up again and return to the focus to Romney:

1. Hidden tax returns

2. Romney's financial connections to CHINA & IRAN! (why is nothing behind done about this)

3. Incompetence on foreign policy

4. Closeness to the Bush advisers

[brindis_desala]

7. Exactly right.

The media creates perceptions. And those who should know better fall for the spin. There is some very astute manipulation going on.
But we will prevail.