2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumWhich Gallup number/tracking poll is the most recent?
RCP won't include the +5 Gallup poll in its average - only the Tie 47/47 one.
RCP says: "*Gallup released two tracking poll results on October 8. The more recent results (reflecting post-debate interviews)
are included in the RCP National Average."
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)the 3 days don't include Sunday. And Obama must've polled very well on Sunday for his lead to move back up to 50-45 in the 7 day average.
WI_DEM
(33,497 posts)Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)It stopped polling on the sixth, so, Saturday. I don't know why RCP is showing that one ... considering Gallup's seven-day average includes samples from Sunday.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)But on the main page of Gallup the Obama (+5) poll is listed.
http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx
And it appears to be Oct 1-7
http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx
budkin
(6,703 posts)Obama had a huge Sunday after being tied for 3 straight days
woolldog
(8,791 posts)I'm a little depressed about the PEW poll, but taking solace in the Gallup job approval ratings.
The spread was as high as +12 and narrowed to +2 or so after the debate. It's now back up to +7 and Obama is above 50%. It's a 3 day rolling average so it's a very good sign that there's a floor underneath those debate numbers and he should be working himself back into the lead, imo. And polls subsequent to Pew should be reflecting that.
He's also in a strong position with the electoral college, with a lot more flexibility in getting to 270 than Romney.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)It is incorrectly stating that the Oct 4-6 poll is the most recent.
And as a result, Obama's national lead is down to 0.5%
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html
Even though the Oct 1-7 poll is listed by Gallup here:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx
woolldog
(8,791 posts)Either Obama's numbers improve or they don't. What the RCP average is today or tmmrw doesn't matter.
TroyD
(4,551 posts)As long as Obama goes back up, it doesn't matter whether RCP wants to admit it or not, BUT . . .
Polling averages can affect the national narrative. And Obama has held onto a lead in RCP all this time. That lead is being kept down by manipulation and could harm morale if Romney overtakes us in the RCP average.