Nate Silver's Response to the Polls Today

[Doctor Jack]

No major analysis yet but we do have a twitter post from a few minutes ago

According to Twitter, Barack Obama went from a huge favorite at 1 PM to a huge underdog at 4 PM. Get a grip, people

[hrmjustin]

1. That is what i say. Remember the averages of polls scewed because they are...

... counting the two gallup numbers in RCP. Plus you got this new pew poll so things are not like they were a week ago.

[tarheelsunc]

3. RCP isn't including the 7-day tracker in their average right now.

[hrmjustin]

5. they are such scum. It figures that they wouldn't

[TroyD]

12. This is the first time I've seen RCP really fix the numbers though

Yes they may have leaned right in the past, but I've never seen them be as deliberately dishonest as they have been over the past few days since the debate.

I guess this is their one opportunity to give Romney a national lead and the stakes are at an all-time high.

They naturally list the PEW poll showing Romney ahead before the polls showing Obama ahead.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

[former9thward]

16. They always list the latest poll on top.

Not everything in life is a conspiracy.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

18. "Not everything in life is a conspiracy."

Who paid you to say that?

[former9thward]

22. Your next door neighbor.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

27. So that's what he did with $200 I loaned him!!!!

[former9thward]

30. I only got $100.

Don't know where the other 100 is.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

33. Probably donated it to Romney!!!!!

[TroyD]

20. Actually, I've been following RCP for months

And they always list Gallup & Rasmussen first.

They've been deliberately putting pro-Romney polls on top this week - that's why the Pew poll is there.

[former9thward]

25. Untrue.

Normally the Gallup and Rasmussen are listed first because by definition they are the latest polls since they are daily tracking. But when another poll is released they put it on top.

[SoFlaJet]

2. And Nate Silver

Knows his shit-I trust him more than any poll I have seen out there and he has Obama at a 78.4% chance of winning and Romney at 20...who do YOU believe?

[oswaldactedalone]

4. From 87% win chance to 78% in five days

Let's see 28 days until the election, can Obama hold on or is the tide turning too strongly to fight back?

[RBInMaine]

7. In other words from certainty to near certainty. Just chill everyone.

[Doctor Jack]

15. it sounds like that number is bottoming out

Obama may only be at 70%-75% by election day but that that is enough. Better than being in romneys position. Think about how all of you would feel if obama was at 20% right now

[regnaD kciN]

28. Already down to 75.1% this afternoon...

...but I'll be satisfied if he's at 60% or higher by 11/6.

[frazzled]

6. Maybe it's time to just sit back and ...

savor the natural mellowing agents of ...



for the good years

[southernyankeebelle]

8. Polls really mean nothing in the end. We have to get the vote out. Simple and Plain.

This gap that Todd keeps talking about isn't believable to me. We see people going to see Obama all over the states. That says something to me. Todd really leans right and carries water for them.

[AverageJoe90]

29. Yep. Just look at the $181 million he raised last month.

Disillusionment? Yeah right. Chuck Todd is full of crap. He can go spew his shit somewhere else(no pun intended).

[southernyankeebelle]

34. I agree with you. Todd is an ass. We all have to show up at the polls and make them

eat their words. It is that simple. We all need to keep our eye on Nov 6. everything else is noise.

[Baitball Blogger]

9. Wait a minute. Before I went out for errands we were 50-45.

How did Obama become an underdog at 4 PM? What did I miss?

[TroyD]

10. Nate can be annoying sometimes

Is he being sarcastic?

What is he saying?

[budkin]

11. His newest article is up

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

[TroyD]

13. So Obama has dropped to 75%

But Nate says that after the Romney bounce and Obama recovery we may see a return to a 2-point Obama national lead:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/08/after-conventions-follow-the-bouncing-poll-numbers/

[Doctor Jack]

14. A win is a win

I don't care if Obama wins by 2 electoral votes or 500. As long as he gets 4 more years, I am happy

[TroyD]

19. That's the most important thing of course

But we want a comfortable win - not a bare win.

Obama has enough trouble being viewed as a legitimate President.

If he doesn't win comfortably he'll be told he didn't win much of a mandate.

We were on track to win 300+ EV and 51% of the vote in November, and I want it to stay that way.

[modrepub]

23. Obama will never have a mandate

If the first election didn't constitute a mandate I don't know what will. Obama's not going to win by as much as he did last time given the circumstances. The repubs are motivated just by him being in the white house. I try to keep a level head by remembering this is largely a popularity contest. The election of the POTUS has never been not exercise in choosing the best person for the job (someone like Tsongas would be my choice but like I said this is a popularity contest).

[obxhead]

17. Polls are used for one purpose

creating a story the pundits can discuss.

They're pointless.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

21. It wasn't that long ago when the big doners were walking out on Mitt.

So, of course there's going to be a panic to get the horse race going again.

What Romney supporters don't get is this just pushes the ground game in the swing states for Obama even harder.

BTW: What ever happened to Ron Paul supporters? I knew of several that believed the choice was either him or the end of America.

Oh,...and then there's this little gem:

[TroyD]

24. 'What Romney supporters don't get is this just pushes the ground game in the swing states for Obama'

How come?

Explain please.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

26. People see Romney get a bump and the Obama People double their efforts.

[MADem]

31. The corporate big dogs really NEED a horse race. All that fundraising money, and the ad buys are

plainly not meeting expectations...!

[WCGreen]

32. The national polls are skewed because of the almost even breakdown

between the camps now.

Romney has managed to solidify and strengthen his base after the debate. And that is going to be measured in.

It's the states that count.