Statistical Analysis: Romney has a 14% chance of winning

[Doctor Jack]

This is some kind of statistical analysis that the people at in trade are taking about. Despite some polls showing Romney has taken the lead nationally, his odds of actually winning the electors vote are extremely low. The problem is that the number of safe states for Obama out number the safe states for Romney ( ev wise) and of the swing states, Obama currently has a significant advantage. There are almost no viable paths to 270 for Romney. Getting there would involve romney making major gains in many states where is is still far behind. So based on current polls and historical trends, romneys odds of actually winning are pegged at 14%.

http://www.nerdwallet.com/markets/election

[JI7]

1. hahhahhahhahha

[oldhippydude]

2. thats very close to Nates numbers

[JI7]

4. i thought those were his numbers

[oldhippydude]

6. click on the link

nerdwallet i think.. not nate, but using similar statistical modeling... they should be very close it helps cement the validity, and reliability of both practitioners...

[tarheelsunc]

3. I'm not going to be satisfied until Obama has a 100% chance of winning.

14% is a lot higher than you think. That's still quite a significant chance.

[spinbaby]

5. Too high

I won't relax until Obama's won.