Explaining the two different Gallup Poll Numbers

[powergirl]

From the Huffington Post:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/08/gallup-poll-obama_n_1948705.html





"WASHINGTON -- Early Monday morning, Gallup released the latest results of its national daily tracking poll, showing President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney in a tie, with both men supported by 47 percent of registered voters. Just three days before, Gallup also noted, Obama had led Romney by five percentage points (50 percent to 45 percent).


"Then at 1 p.m. Eastern time on Monday, Gallup updated its daily tracking results again, this time showing Obama once more leading Romney by 5 points (50 percent to 45 percent).

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"In showing Obama and Romney tied in its initial Monday morning release, Gallup broke from its typical practice of reporting presidential vote preference on a seven-day rolling average and instead compared vote preference on two sets of three-day averages. Looking at the results from interviews conducted Oct. 1 to 3 (just before the debate) and the results from interviews conducted Oct. 4 to 6 (just after), Gallup found the race had narrowed from a five-point Obama lead to dead even.

"Nevertheless, as of Sunday night, Gallup's seven-day rolling average continued to show Obama leading by three points. "Even on this basis," wrote Gallup's Jeffrey Jones, "the race has become somewhat more competitive compared with before the first debate." In the eight days prior to the debate, the polling firm's seven-day averages had shown Obama leading by 4 to 6 points.

"But on Gallup's latest seven-day results, the numbers reported on Monday afternoon, Obama's lead again expanded to 5 points. Given the consistency prior to the debates, the latest result at least suggests a slight rebound for Obama on Saturday and Sunday."

[bushisanidiot]

1. Looks like romney's "bounce" was more of a blip

I think that's what rinse preibus likes to call a "sugar high"

[yellowcanine]

3. Or a dead cat bounce.

[TroyD]

4. It seems to have been bigger than a blip

It caused a huge collapse of support in a variety of polls and states across the country, including Democratic ones.

Luckily the worst of it appears to be over and Obama seems to be going back up.

But what happened was very dangerous and we have to make sure it doesn't happen again.

Obama also knows that he messed up and promised in California last night to his fundraisers to come back strong:

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-pn-obama-race-tightens-20121009,0,5839675.story

[fugop]

2. Gosh, I wonder why Gallup would break from its typical practice??? NT

[Jennicut]

5. Get ready for more confusion today as Gallup switches to LV #'s.

Romney will no doubt increase, could be a tie, slightly ahead or slightly behind.

Gallup really screwed this up for themselves. Should have just posted the regular tracking poll #'s and then stated that the LV model will be shown today. People will freak out today because they have no idea.