Intrade Seems To Be Shrugging Off The Pew Poll. I Think I Will Too

[DemocratSinceBirth]

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474


Unless I see confirmation from other polls a twelve point debate swing is just not credible.

[cilla4progress]

1. Really don't understand

how things can change so fast ... on the basis of one debate?

Let's hope Intrade is right, and Repubs overreach!

Frat rats..

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. I'm Not Sure How Much Things Changed

Rasmussen, Gallup, PPP, Rand, and Ipsos tell a very different story.

[Dawson Leery]

2. The pew sample undersampled Democrats.

Also, the Pew poll was taken last week, during the immediate aftermath of the debate.

[Ztolkins]

15. While this may be true...

Why should we complain about it, when last week DU was ridiculing repubs who were decrying this? Because there are more dems in the country generally? How do we know this?

[flamingdem]

3. Follow the money

A lot of people got creamed last night with the Hugo Chavez Intrade, so caution is the word today

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. I Had No Dog In The Chavez Fight.

Did intrade get it wrong?

[flamingdem]

11. I read that on twitter but didn't fact check it

.. can believe it though because the monied set and right wing was simply certain the poor of Venezuela would see things their way! The Neo-liberal way that Capriles wanted after they'd got used to free health care, free education, low cost housing.. etc.

It's strange though because the polls were exactly the way the election turned out, paranoia and distrust did not pay off for Intraders with Hugo.

[tarheelsunc]

13. I looked on Sat. and Chavez was trading for $8.00, his opponent was at $3.45, not sure about yest.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

14. Intrade Pretty Much Got It Right-Look At The Graph

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=763809

This is a gambling site where people bet real money.

[Fgiriun]

5. How often does PEW release polls? Monthly?

[MANative]

6. InTrade started the day around 62 and when I checked...

about five minutes ago, it was over 66.

[WI_DEM]

8. Pew is a pollster I really respect, but I am having a hard time

understanding how he could have gained so much ground, too. Are the American people really this fickle?

[gabeana]

9. its just noise

one good week for Mittflop, thats all it is

[budkin]

10. Josh Marshall of TPM tries to explain here

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/10/so_whats_it_mean.php

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. I Disagree With His Analysis A Bit

"Or (Pew) perhaps it’s just a better poll — live calls, rather than robo-polls and a more methodical approach."


Gallup is most certainly not a robocaller.

[TroyD]

16. We can't 'shrug off' the Pew poll

It was one of the best pollsters for Obama all year, so if he lost his lead in Pew that is a big change that we should take seriously.

As Nate Silver says, one can't just throw out data one doesn't like - one has to look at all of it.

However, as Nate says, the Gallup & Rasmussen polls show a recovery for Obama over the weekend, so he may end up going back up in Pew as well.