Pew: Romney +4

[cash__whatiwant]

Mitt Romney no longer trails Barack Obama in the Pew Research Center’s presidential election polling. By about three-to-one, voters say Romney did a better job than Obama in the Oct. 3 debate, and the Republican is now better regarded on most personal dimensions and on most issues than he was in September. Romney is seen as the candidate who has new ideas and is viewed as better able than Obama to improve the jobs situation and reduce the budget deficit.

Fully 66% of registered voters say Romney did the better job in last Wednesday’s debate, compared with just 20% who say Obama did better. A majority (64%) of voters who watched the debate describe it as mostly informative; just 26% say it was mostly confusing.

In turn, Romney has drawn even with Obama in the presidential race among registered voters (46% to 46%) after trailing by nine points (42% to 51%) in September. Among likely voters, Romney holds a slight 49% to 45% edge over Obama. He trailed by eight points among likely voters last month.

The latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 4-7 among 1,511 adults, including 1,201 registered voters (1,112 likely voters), finds that 67% of Romney’s backers support him strongly, up from 56% last month. For the first time in the campaign, Romney draws as much strong support as does Obama.

More generally, the poll finds Romney’s supporters far more engaged in the campaign than they were in September. Fully 82% say they have given a lot of thought to the election, up from 73% in September. The new survey finds that Romney supporters hold a 15-point advantage over Obama backers on this key engagement measure. Supporters on both sides were about even in September.

Coming out of the debate, Mitt Romney’s personal image has improved. His favorable rating has hit 50% among registered voters for the first time in Pew Research Center surveys and has risen five points since September. At the same time, Obama’s personal favorability rating has fallen from 55% to 49%.

more here

[hrmjustin]

1. not good news.

Pew is usually good at polling.

[Cattledog]

2. Carter Reagn type change...O is in trouble.

[WI_DEM]

11. the Carter-Reagan debate was a week before the election and the only

debate they had. Put some perspective into this. It's still nearly a month before the election and there are three more debates (one VP).

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

3. Just came to post this, but it is before the job numbers have had the chance to kick in.

Let's wait a few days to see if the job numbers have an effect.

Yes, Americans are that fucking stupid!!

[SoapBox]

4. Ditto to the stupid.

Squirrel!

[Dawson Leery]

5. Stupid indeed.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. People are putting way too much faith in those jobs numbers.

I don't think they're going to dramatically alter the race nearly as much as many people think.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

10. And neither will that first debate for Romney. Nate Silver warned us that Romney would get a bounce

post-debate no matter what he did. That doesn't necessarily mean that his bounce will last.

[VespertineIconoclast]

19. Thank you for reminding others about what Nate Silver predicted BEFORE the debate.

First Debate Often Helps Challenger in Polls

By Nate Silver

Conventional wisdom holds that the first presidential debate offers an especially good opportunity for the challenging candidate, who for the first time gets to stand on a literal public stage, and a proverbial level playing field, with the incumbent president.
...

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/03/first-debate-often-helps-challenger-in-polls/

[Onlooker]

7. Obama screwed up royally.

All the reports said he did not like the practice and performed unevenly. In addition, he left the debate thinking he did an okay job. He has a lot of work to do, and I hope he's up to it. He's a mediocre debater to begin with, and the Republicans wisely invested a lot of energy to prepare Romney. Obama needs to win the next two debates, or we are going to be stuck with president Rmoney, and sadly it will be Obama's fault. I'm all for Obama, but god damn him for failing us like this. He better make it up. If the Republicans get another foothold in DC, they will use the opportunity to put in Supreme Court justices that make it easier for the states to disenfranchise people and to further corrupt the election process. Pew polls are good and, if anything, they err on the side of Democrats.

[tallahasseedem]

18. I agree.

I'm still perplexed by what happened last week...I just don't get it.

[catbyte]

8. Meh. Gallup has Obama +5

I'll wait to set my hair on fire.

[tarheelsunc]

13. To be fair, Gallup's poll is an RV poll.

[fugop]

16. But it's also 7 days

Realizing Pew was only four days, two of which during Romney's post debate high, settles me down. This is the height of that bounce, unlike others that aren't 50-percent debate highs.

[FrenchieCat]

9. Damn! Thanks for the concerned **warning**!!!!!

BUT WAIT!
HOLD OFF......

I'm beginning to see a new horizon!






AND PEW WILL SOON GET THIS MESSAGE.....







ATTENTION!

[11 Bravo]

12. Just to be safe, I think we need 10-12 more posts about the fucking Pew poll today.

[SoFlaJet]

14. Nate Silver at 538

still gives Obama a 78.4% chance of winning. Who do YOU belive more?

[underpants]

15. Yeah but it was 83% before the debate

my head is reelling spinning

[Tcbys]

17. We're doomed...... :(

[AverageJoe90]

20. I'm sorry, but I gotta call serious bullshit on the Pew Poll.

Obama's worst day so far was Wednesday, and even then Romney wasn't ahead, at least not by that much.

Something is seriously wrong with this, this kind of stuff does not just happen unless something truly groundbreaking has happened in a particular candidate's favor. And Romney had no such luck. And in fact, he's already been hurt by this Big Bird fiasco, for one. And two, Obama didn't make any major screw-ups and despite the fact that he could have done a little better defending himself, the President DID hold his ground rather well.

To be honest, I don't think this was "skewed" or whatever. It just seems that Pew really screwed the pooch on this one; shoddy research does not a good poll make. So, I think I'll be ignoring them as a stand-alone for the rest of the season. And in fact, here's a breakdown of the poll, courtesy of KGardner of DailyKos:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/08/1141800/-PEW-somethin-stinks

Also, today's Gallup poll showed really good ratings for the President:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/08/1141653/-Big-Fat-Bump-for-Obama-in-Gallup

So yeah, nothing to worry about after all.