Pew a 9pt swing to Romney up 49-45

[Cattledog]

Ouch! Reagan type swing!

[Comrade_McKenzie]

1. ...

[Blue Owl]

2. Peeeeee-eeew, something reeks...

...and it smells like Karl Rove.

[vi5]

3. Is it fishy when they've traditionally had Obama leading?

[applegrove]

39. Is Pew a republican pollster? Cause if you build it it will come. When I want

to go back on my computer from some webpage and it is stuck, I press refresh then the back button quickly and the jiggles everything so that the back button then works. What I'm saying is just the excercise of voters sprinting to Romney en mass is enough to jar independants, who were leaning Obama, and encourage them to Romney. Would a pollster do this for the GOP when it was not true? Who is Pew anyhow?

[FrenchieCat]

4. Thank you for your service......

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251123707

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=124025

[Care Acutely]

25. Ha, that's the least of it - look at this -->

"This race is closer than you think. If you don't think Obama's in trouble you're deluding yourself. The 2008 mojo is gone. If he wins by 2 million I'd be surprised...this just might be another 2000. "
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=580591

"Liberals don't read."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1138790

"No apology. Only spineless liberals apologize."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1017&pid=33985

"Pew a 9pt swing to Romney up 49-45
Ouch! Reagan type swing!"
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251126408

"Carter Reagn type change...O is in trouble."
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=126430

and of course this one, "Romney the new Reagan?"
http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1495497

[djean111]

30. Thank you, sincerely, for this information. Most helpful!

As a relative newcomer, I am not familiar with who says what, relentlessly and with real dedication. I mostly look at post count when I see a real downer, especially if the downer is not based on anything but opinion.

[hrmjustin]

5. It is just one poll.

[budkin]

6. This will rebound like all the others

Don't freak out.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

7. This poll is through October 7. The job numbers haven't taken affect yet.

[TexasCPA]

8. They talked to a lot of Republicans

This month
34.7% Republican
34.0% Democrat
31.3% Independent

Last month
30.6% Republican
37.1% Democrat
32.3% Independent

[woolldog]

10. that's random sampling for you

party ID shifts with enthusiasm.

There's some evidence in the tracking polls that Obama has stemmed to bleeding and recovered. But the media is gonna be all over this poll, esp if other polls confirm this. Obama can turn it around. But damn.

[progressivebydesign]

31. Independents should NEVER get a third of the poll, but they do and it skews it.

Most Independents are Republicans who think they know better. Rarely a liberal. AND they do not constitute 1/3 of the voters, yet these polls include them as if there are 1/3 of voters who are Independents. This happens every election. And it's always BS.

[CitizenPatriot]

9. wow maybe Romney really IS reaganesque! /s

No worries, Romney couldn't pull of a Reagan move for a minute let alone a sustained period of time.

Romney is going to get a post debate bump. It's already been mitigated in other polls. It's not a Reagan swing unless it actually lasts, which not one pollster has said is what they see so far because of course they can't say that. It hasn't been a week yet and Romney is already stepping in it today re foreign policy.

[Lone_Star_Dem]

11. Worth noting it's a smaller sample than the Gallop where Obama lead +5

Could be significant.

[andym]

12. Preventing the Reagan effect

From
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021465897

Besides the high misery index and the hostages, the thing that won the 1980 election for Reagan was his debate performance which overcame the very effective painting the Carter campaign had done of Reagan as a dangerous oaf.

So far the Obama campaign have painted Romney as someone who doesn't care about the middle class (which judging from the 47% tape is correct). Romney's number one goal in the debates was to reverse this. The question is how well did he succeed?


----------------

I'm not liking the answer to my own question. The President has to set Romney on his heels in the next debate!

[woolldog]

13. I guess Obama

wasnt playing some 3 dimensional chess as so many on here said he was when he tanked on Wed.

[WI_DEM]

14. Except that the Carter-Reagan debate was a week before the election &

there only debate. Obama has time to rebound and indications already in other polls are that he is.

[WallaceRitchie]

15. Women voters

Pew had Obama leading by 18 among Women voters before the debate... now TIED?

Yeah, not buying it.

I guess he needs to come out wearing a pink tie in the next debate.

[fugop]

16. I'm having trouble with that one as well

Did women split evenly in either of the Bush elections? Just trying to remember when/if that happens these days?

[woolldog]

17. might have something to do

with Obama looking so feckless during the debate.

[WallaceRitchie]

19. Doubt it

Despite my pink tie joke, I refuse to believe that women are shallow when it comes to this election... that they would need an "I Love Women!" shoutout to continue to support the President.

Obama vowed not to cut Healthcare, Medicare, Social Security, or Education. Some pundits claim the poll swings are due to Obama's failure to mention women's issues during the debate. These are not just male-only topics.

Whether the President seemed "feckless" during the first debate, his stances on Women's issues have been clear.

Romney TALKS about supporting women. Obama actually DOES it.

[fugop]

20. As a women, that would embarrass me

Everyone worried women were dumb enough to vote for McCain because he put a woman on the ticket. I said no way, and I was right. We aren't as dumb as that. And I don't believe women who were for Obama suddenly swung to the anti-woman party because Mitt was macho in the debate. That's insulting. Beyond insulting. Either there were more GOP women in this poll (which could be since the sample in this Pew poll completely flipped from majority Dem last time to majority GOP this time) or something else is screwy. I just can't buy that women are flipping in huge numbers to go R unless there's a more substantial reason.

Call me a denier all you want, but when a sample makes such a dramatic swing, it just doesn't make sense. Time will tell, I guess.

[woolldog]

24. I'm nonplussed as well.

Pew is a good pollster. I have no idea what's going on.

I have a sick feeling in my stomach right now at the thought of Romney winning. The economy is going to improve no matter who's in office and I'd hate to see the Rs (and esp Romney) get credit for it.

[progressivebydesign]

32. again. they OVER sampled "independents." they do NOT make up 1/3 of the voters...

plus they're most often conservative or libertarians.

[VirginiaTarheel]

18. Obama better be boning up like no one has ever prepared for a debate in history.

If he loses because of his awful debate performance, he will forever be viewed as lazy, careless, and arrogant. In other words, Newt Gingrich and the crazies will get their nutjob theories of Obama cemented in history.

[fugop]

21. And uppity.

Don't forget uppity.

[RBInMaine]

22. There is NO "OUCH" here. This is BULLSHIT. All other polls have Obama AHEAD. Gallup up 5 today.

Last edited Mon Oct 8, 2012, 06:32 PM - Edit history (1)

It doesn't show Obama's jobs report bounce nor MittTwit's regression these last few days. Maybe a good poll for the TIME it was taken, but things have since settled back again.

[tarheelsunc]

23. The people criticizing the polls are no better than the conservative poll truthers

I assume these are legitimate polls. It's not the polls that are to fault, it's Obama and the electorate. Obama didn't show any sort of fight in the debate, and the electorate in general doesn't seem to care about what is and isn't true.

[RBInMaine]

26. This poll DOES NOT SHOW Obama's jops report bounce nor Mitt's REGRESSION these last two days.

[FrenchieCat]

29. Agenda is showing like a floor length slip under a miniskirt.....!

Either pull the slip up or pull down the skirt!

Some of us weren't born here yesterday....
we all know the fallacy of some of these polls,
as do you.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251123707

[tarheelsunc]

36. No poll is perfect of course, but PEW is pretty reliable

A lot of people think because Romney is up considerably, the poll is wrong. That's exactly what the right-wingers are doing when they say the polls are skewed for Obama. It doesn't do anyone any good to dismiss a perfectly valid poll. It may be attributable to bounce, but 9 points is a HUGE movement and that can't all be bounce.

[FrenchieCat]

37. The poll's timing makes the results invalid as of this time......

even if it was accurate at another point in time.

You know this.....
So Dummying up ain't gonna get it.

[tarheelsunc]

38. Even so, Romney gaining 9 points due to one single event is a huge deal.

I'm not dummying anything up. Even the 47% tape didn't have an impact anywhere near that strong. I don't care how long that bounce last or how big it is, I wouldn't hold my breath expecting the polls to return to the pre-debate levels any time soon.

[progressivebydesign]

33. Can you understand that they have BAD methodology???

Or do you believe that 1/3 of the voters in America are REGISTERED as "Independents." They aren't and yet every freakin' election, we have to go over this for people here. When a poller does 1/3 Independents, it is WRONG. 1) Independents are most often republicans or libertarians who think they're smarter than everyone in the GOP. 2) Look at the data. there are NOT 1/3 of the voters in AMerica who are independents. It's oversampling...

[FrenchieCat]

34. Poster understands.....but poster doesn't care....

Cause caring is not poster's reason d'etre.

[tarheelsunc]

35. Not everyone identifies as strongly with their party as we do, those things can be quite volatile

What they register as is one thing, and what they tell the pollster is another. PEW has historically been a very good pollster and I'm pretty sure if they put out a poll with Obama up 10%, no one here would even question it. I'm quite sure after the last debate, Democratic enthusiasm slipped a bit among the weaker Democrats. I'm not saying their poll is perfect, but outright dismissing it is not really any different than saying it's skewed.

[elleng]

27. wrong

http://www.democraticunderground.com/1014259947

[Blue Yorker]

28. Will Ipsos release its tracking poll today?

It's supposed to be daily. I wonder if it will match Pew's numbers.