PPP: Baldwin leads Thompson by 3 in WI

[TroyD]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/dems-lead-senate-races-in-va-wi.html

The Wisconsin Senate race has been very steady over the last month. Tammy Baldwin leads Tommy Thompson by a 3 point margin, 49-46. PPP's done three polls there since Labor Day and Baldwin's held a 3-4 point lead in every one of them.

No one would have imagined six months ago that Baldwin would have a bigger lead in Wisconsin than Barack Obama. But Thompson has proven to be quite a weak candidate. Only 43% of voters have a favorable opinion of him to 50% with a negative one. Those numbers are quite a bit worse than Mitt Romney's 49/48 spread in the state.
Wisconsin voters only say they want a Democratic controlled Senate by a 46/45 margin, suggesting that Thompson might be running a couple points worse than an average Republican candidate would be.

Baldwin leads mostly thanks to a 52/40 advantage with independent voters. She's up big with women (50/43) while managing to run about even with men, trailing only 48-47. She's running even with white voters at 47% and leads with non-whites 65-30.

[WI_DEM]

1. Good let's keep it up.

[Jennicut]

2. She is a very good candidate. I have seen her on The Ed Show many times.

Clear, intelligent but very positive and likable.

[TroyD]

3. I hope she can keep the momentum for 4 more weeks

And Thompson has made a few screwups just over the past few days which could help her further.

He's admitting to being tired and needing lots of rest and time off during the campaign.

But most important was his revelation that he forgot how many houses he owns. Turns out he owns FOUR houses. He could only remember THREE at first.