2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumNot To Be A Poll Truther But We Screw America And Gravass Is Messing With Some Senate Poll Averages
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brooklynite
(94,588 posts)DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Their polls are contradicted by every pollster in the field except , guess who; Rasmussen.
Jennicut
(25,415 posts)Which is healthy. We don't refuse to look at every poll and call it a lie.
I think the race has tightened but that Mitten's bounce was not big enough to overtake President Obama. Now we have the VP debate Thursday and then the 2nd Pres debate next week. Things will bounce around again.
But Gravis and We Ask America are pretty deliberate in their crappy polling. Gravis has ridiculous internals (could be fake) and a sham of a company. We Ask America links to Drudge and brags on their front page that so many hits from them and Real Clear Politics made the site meltdown and crash for awhile. Kind of obvious. No internals ever. I have search for them all this morning from any of their polls, even the ones that were positive for Obama. Nothing. Speaks volumes.
alcibiades_mystery
(36,437 posts)It's quite another to raise a skeptical eye at Doug Kaplan and his merry band of know-nothing fax-spammers. The trick that makes a con work is to associate it with something more trustworthy. Whether Gravis is even running any polls at all is a question, I think, for debate, in a way it never is for Gallup, Ipsos, Quinnipiac, or even Rasmussen. Given what we now know about Gravis, leading into any discussion of their so-called "polls" with a massive disclaimer seems the only reasonable and honest thing to do.
Posting a Gravis poll and simply noting that "this pollster" (is it a real pollster? i don't know that!) simply "leans Republican" strikes me as disingenuous, to say the least. For all appearances, Gravis is a shell company of hucksters - there's no real foundation for even determining that they run any polls at all. That should be reflected in our descriptions of their results.
Denying Gallup and Ipsos and Quinnipiac and Rasmussen and university polls of all stripes in the aggregate is certainly a dubious act of "poll trutherism."
Presenting Gravis as if it may not even be a real poll strikes me now as common sense.
summerschild
(725 posts)http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021489250
He's done some great research! Looks like DAILY KOS raised a bunch of questions and grantcart has answered them.
phleshdef
(11,936 posts)Even with Rasmussen's Republican leanings, I wouldn't call it an unproven firm. Ras does have credibility from time to time. Gallup has credibility. Any of the polls paid for by any of the major news networks or media outlets have credibility. PPP has credibility. Pew has credibility. Any firm outside of those parameters, I don't pay attention to.
bushisanidiot
(8,064 posts)real clear politics is also selectively weeding out pro-Obama numbers from their weekly averages.