PPP: movement towards Kaine in the VA-Sen race (51-44)

[TroyD]

Tim Kaine leads 51-44, up 6 pts from 47-46 last month:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/dems-lead-senate-races-in-va-wi.html

There's been a big shift over the last three weeks in Virginia. After months of polling showing a tied race, Tim Kaine has now broken open a 51-44 advantage over George Allen. Just three weeks ago the candidates were separated by only a point at 47-46.

The big shift over the last three weeks has been with independent voters, who've gone from being effectively tied to supporting Kaine by a 53/40 margin. Kaine's also cut Allen's lead with white voters almost in half from 16 points at 55-39 to 9 points at 52-43. Any Democrat who can hold a Republican to a single digit advantage with white voters in Virginia is going to win handily. Kaine's also leading with both women (53-41) and men (49-47).

Three weeks ago Allen's favorability was 41/41 and now it's 44/45, not a particularly significant shift. The movement towards Kaine has more to do with voters warming up to him. 50% see him favorably now to 41% with a negative opinion, up from a 42/44 spread on our last poll. Kaine's in the driver's seat heading into the last month of this race.

[bushisanidiot]

1. Awesome news!

.

[TroyD]

2. Bumping thread

[11 Bravo]

3. Apparently I'm not the only one who remembers the Confederate flag waving, n-word dropping ...

macaca motherfucker's last go round. I'm beginning to hold out hope that my beloved Old Dominion is gradually coming to its collective senses.

[TroyD]

4. It certainly looks like Kaine is in good shape - I'm not worried about him

What is most important is for Obama to win Virginia.

[hrmjustin]

5. hope we stay ahead there.

[ohheckyeah]

6. I got polled by Freedom Watch or some

such polling place (one backed by the Koch brothers.) I told the young lady I wouldn't vote for Allen if he were running against Satan. She gasped and then started laughing.

I can't stand George Allen.

Go Kaine!

[Tcbys]

7. If Kaine wins election would that automatically have Obama Carry the state?

[TroyD]

8. I don't think anything is 'automatic'

Sometimes there is a correlation between a Senate win and a Presidential win in a certain state, and sometimes there isn't.

It depends.

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) is going to win West Virginia by a landslide, but Obama is not going to even come close there.

In the case of Virginia though, it's certainly a good sign that Tim Kaine is doing well. But it doesn't mean the state is in the bag for Obama yet.