Paul Krugman: Bernie Sanders needs to disassociate himself from fantasy economics right now

[Cali_Democrat]

Krugman and his silly facts.

Who the hell does he think he is, anyways? Some sort of Nobel prize winner in economics? Pffffftt!


------------------------------------------

The open letter to Sanders and Friedman by former CEA chairs didn’t get into specifics, and I’m already hearing from Bernie supporters accusing them of arrogance, or high-handedness, or something. But here’s what Friedman has said, in what the campaign’s policy director calls “outstanding work”:

– Real growth at 5.3 percent a year, versus a baseline of around 2
– Labor force participation rate back to 1999 level
– 3.8 percent unemployment

OK, progressives have, rightly, mocked Jeb Bush for claiming that he could double growth to 4 percent. Now people close to Sanders say 5.3??? Even those of us who believe that there’s still significant slack in the US labor market are aware that much, probably most, of the decline in labor force participation since 1999 reflects an aging population — prime-working-age LFPR has reclaimed most of the lost ground since the Great Recession, and there’s probably a long-term downward trend even there. It’s possible that we can get unemployment down under 4 percent, but that’s way below any estimates I’ve seen of the level of unemployment consistent with moderate inflation.

The point is not that all of this is impossible, but it’s very unlikely — and these are numbers we would describe as deep voodoo if they came from a tax-cutting Republican.

Sanders needs to disassociate himself from this kind of fantasy economics right now. If his campaign responds instead by lashing out — well, a campaign that treats Alan Krueger, Christy Romer, and Laura Tyson as right-wing enemies is well on its way to making Donald Trump president.

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2016/02/17/what-has-the-wonks-worried/?module=BlogPost-Title&version=Blog%20Main&contentCollection=Opinion&action=Click&pgtype=Blogs

[Kalidurga]

1. Apparently he thinks he is relevant

I am still waiting for someone to come to the realization that we have plenty of money if we deflate the bloated Pentagon budget.

[workinclasszero]

3. Bernie could start this by gutting the F-35 boondoggle

Oh wait...

[Kalidurga]

8. I really don't care where the cuts are so there.

[oasis]

7. "Bloated Pentagon budget". Good lead off statement for Bernie in

the next debate. Will he dare use it or......

[think]

20. He should go after our bloated military budget. It's disgusting how much America spends on war.

[Arazi]

23. In this day and age, I think the Defense Dept and MIC qualify as "establishment"

so let her rip Bernie!

[Chichiri]

2. K&R. nt

[mgmaggiemg]

4. great point. thanks ;)

[JRLeft]

5. Krugman isn't the only economist, others disagree with him.

[oasis]

11. Name someone with Krugman's bona fides.

[JRLeft]

15. Robert Reich is comparable.

[oasis]

64. Nope. Krugman is head and shoulders above him.

Edit: to explain: not a reference to Reich's stature. So don't go there.

[frylock]

67. Because you said so?

[oasis]

69. Yes I say so. Hillary has my back on that.

[frylock]

70. Ah

[oasis]

71. Yup, James Carville too.

Thanks for the reminder.

[frylock]

74. Yeah, 1996 called.

[Fawke Em]

16. Robert Reich.

[cherokeeprogressive]

18. bona fides = number of books written?

[frylock]

37. Joseph Stiglitz

[Art_from_Ark]

79. And James K. Galbraith-- and 169 other economists

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/01/14/170-economists-bernie-sanders-plan-reform-wall-st-rein-greed.html

[frylock]

80. Yep. An impressive list.

But we're supposed to disregard that because celebrity economist, TV's Paul Krugman, says so.

[frylock]

38. Thomas Picketty

[oasis]

65. Picketty is the second coming of Karl Marx. No thanks.

[frylock]

66. That's what conservatives say about Obama.

hmmmmnnnnn...

[Kall]

78. Is that you, Rush Limbaugh?

[redstateblues]

81. Socialists stick together

[frylock]

82. Ooooooooh! Bern!

[Fumesucker]

6. Very Serious People are very serious

Atrios coined the mocking term and Krugman popularized it, now he is invoking the Very Serious People.

Oh how the worm turns when it comes to driving Miss Hillry.

[Cali_Democrat]

19. How can we get the LFPR to 1999 levels when we have an aging population?

[Fumesucker]

25. Chuckles has it figured out

[iwannaknow]

9. 170 Economists Endorse Sanders's Plan (incl. Robert Reich)

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/01/14/170-economists-bernie-sanders-plan-reform-wall-st-rein-greed.html

"
170 of the nation’s top economists have released a letter endorsing Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders’s plan to reform Wall Street.

A letter signed by 170 economists including former Labor Secretary Robert Reich, University of Texas Professor James K. Galbraith, Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, DC., Brad Miller, former U.S. Congressman from North Carolina, and William K. Black, University of Missouri-Kansas City endorsed the Sanders plan to reform Wall Street.

The economists wrote:

In our view, Sanders’ plan for comprehensive financial reform is critical for avoiding another ‘too-big-to-fail’ financial crisis. The Senator is correct that the biggest banks must be broken up and that a new 21st Century Glass-Steagall Act, separating investment from commercial banking, must be enacted.

Wall Street’s largest banks are now far bigger than they were before the crisis, and they still have every incentive to take excessive risks. No major Wall Street executive has been indicted for the fraudulent behavior that led up to the 2008 crash, and fines imposed on the banks have been only a fraction of the banks’ potential gains. In addition, the banks and their lobbyists have succeeded in watering down the Dodd-Frank reform legislation, and the financial institutions that pose the greatest risk to our economy have still not devised sufficient “living wills” for winding down their operations in the event of another crisis.
"
...

[SalviaBlue]

17. Thank you for posting this.

[stevenleser]

75. That's his plan to reform Wall Street, not his economic plan. nt

[Wilms]

10. First we scold women...n/t

[ejbr]

12. Does he know

where the transcripts are? Cuz if not, all I hear is blah blah blah

[Fawke Em]

13. And Krugman needs to disassociate his lips from Clinton's butt. eom

[dchill]

56. IKR. That could end up being an economic...

boondoggle for everyone! He doesn't have his facts straight because of where he thinks the wind is blowing from.

[tokenlib]

14. Damn, Krugman really wants that cabinet post...n/t

[dirtydickcheney]

21. Fantasy Economics?

For example:
Like when NAFTA was going to create 700K jobs?

What happens when the USA starts to put a tariff on imported goods that we currently get from 'free trade' agreements?

Is THAT supposed to increase unemployment?

[gyroscope]

22. What part does Krugman consider to be fantasy?

- raising the minimum wage to 15 an hour?

- taxing Wall street high speed trading?

- free college tuition?

- closing loopholes that allow big corporations get away with paying little or no taxes?

- universal healthcare?

- overturning Citizen's United?
---------------

Apparently anything that helps the poor and middle class, is considered fantasy in Krugman's mind.
But cutting taxes for the rich, increasing the defense budget, etc are all perfectly realistic and reasonable things to do.

[Cali_Democrat]

24. This:

5.3% growth rate
LFPR to 1999 levels
3.8% unemployment

--------------

Bernie's economic plan assumes all of this. It's pure fantasy. We laughed at Jeb! when he claimed a 4% growth rate. Bernie tops him by claiming 5.3%.

It doesn't pass the laugh test.

[gyroscope]

26. Bernie's plan doesn't assume anything

Krugman pulled those numbers out of his ass. Talk about fantasy!

[mythology]

43. Then how do his plans add up?

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow-show/the-perils-wishful-thinking

http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2016/02/09/bernies-favourite-economist-predicts-lovely-things-from-bernies-economic-plans/#66469c173f8e

This was the same economist touted by Sanders supporters in a CNN article a few days ago.

[gyroscope]

44. Independent economists came up with those numbers

not the Sanders campaign.

If Krugman has a problem with it he should be writing to them not the Sanders campaign.
Not sure how someone who lacks basic reading comprehension was awarded a Nobel.
They seem to be handing them out like candy these days.

[NCTraveler]

27. Krugman is simply wrong.

Sanders knows his base. His support grows when he knocks planned Parentood and votes for the extreme right wing "audit the fed" legislation as he recently did. He is touted as a hero by his base for blocking a pathway to citizenship for over ten million people simply because the economics didn't work out.

Figure it out folks.

[thesquanderer]

28. The difference between Jeb's mocked growth figures and Bernie's...

...is that Republicans like Jeb think that growth is going to come from lowering taxes on the big business and the wealthy, despite tons of evidence that trickle-down doesn't work; whereas Bernie is planning big spending on infrastructure, which happens to do double duty as economic stimulus. You know, the kind of thing that Krugman has always argued for.

[PoliticAverse]

29. Milton Friedman was a "Nobel prize winner in economics" too. n/t

[Cali_Democrat]

31. Milton Friedman? Who mentioned him?

The person referenced is Gerald Friedman.

[PoliticAverse]

33. You seem to think that the "Nobel prize in economics" indicates that the person is an expert...

whose opinion should be held above others'. Did you feel that way about Milton Friedman
also?

[Depaysement]

53. Sailed right over someone's head

Excellent point though.

[Arazi]

62. +10000. Whoosh! eom

[merrily]

30. Well, coming from the guy who warned us against the 2008 crash...oh wait.

[cali]

32. Funny, Thomas Picketty, every bit as well regarded as Krugman,

disagrees.

[redstateblues]

83. Another self avowed Socialist. What would you expect?

[onehandle]

34. Krugman's trying to steal our unicorns. nt

[frylock]

35. RIGHT FUCKING NOW!

Talk about your one-trick ponies. Someone give Krugman a sugar cube and brush his mane ffs.

[whatchamacallit]

48. Haha thought the same thing when I saw the title

[Todays_Illusion]

36. Krugman has discredited himself by endorsing Hillary Clinton. Piketty doesn't consider Sanders'

ideas magical, and says the rich must be taxed more and it is the only way to achieve change.

[OilemFirchen]

59. Krugman has endorsed no one. (n/t)

[frylock]

68. Officially.

[Broward]

39. Krugman is a Hillary shill.

[Jarqui]

40. What does this mean on Friedman's Economic projections

January 28, 2016
Draft: Not to be cited or circulated without permission
http://www.dollarsandsense.org/What-would-Sanders-do-013016.pdf
Is there a more current copy? Why is it a draft?

Was there a thread on this?:
Hillary Clinton Doesn’t Have a Practical Plan, or Any Plan, for Universal Health Care Coverage

[Jarqui]

41. Friedman tweeted these or they were referenced by th article he tweeted

How much would a Bernie Sanders healthcare system cost?

Economist: Sanders Plan Means Millions of New Jobs

The Affordable Care Act and theU.S. Economy: A Five-Year Perspective

Why ‘Berniecare’ Has Legs

2015 Employer Health Benefits Survey Sep 22, 2015

[sadoldgirl]

42. Paul Krugman should dissociate himself from the HRC campaign!

[nadinbrzezinski]

45. Ah yes, from the google machine

Krugman was very dismissive of Obama as well

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/01/20/he-wasnt-the-one-weve-been-waiting-for/

[mvd]

46. Often he does good work, but he is off here IMO

In 2007 he obviously thought single payer is doable, even if he preferred a quicker solution of incremental progress. So sounds like his criticism is just dishonest. There is no reason in the world a country as rich as ours can't have single payer. And obviously I disagree on thinking big. Settling for a lower goal has helped make this country go to the right.

[Odin2005]

47. Says the guy who got his Not-A-Real-Nobel Prize for being as Free Trade shill.

[ozone_man]

49. Krugman is such a chrony capitalist.

He had potential, but has not come a cog in the wheel of our Wall Street driven economy.

[Jarqui]

50. from Obama's site

http://obamacarefacts.com/single-payer/

Would Single Payer Work in America?

Single Payer won’t magically fix our problems alone, but addressing the profit in healthcare funding, our current lack of bargaining power, and the simplifying of coverage options would carry many benefits for the average American.

We know that single payer technically works in America because of the single payer systems we already have like Medicaid and Medicare, whether they currently work better than the private health insurance market and whether of not that would change depending upon how we implemented single payer is another more complex debate.

Certainly single payer would have to come with it’s own set of healthcare reforms that help ensure that the healthcare industry could still be as innovated and effective as it is today. Comparing what a single payer solution for America would be to other single payer systems or even to our own single payer systems can only give us small clues as to what the actual outcome would be like. One of the best ways to look at how single payer would work is to look at previously proposed single payer legislation like the 2009 “Medicare-for-all” bill.

How Would Single Payer Affect HealthCare Spending?
A Single payer system would be expected to lower healthcare spending due to reduced administrative costs and improved bargaining power. We would expect less of a focus on profit, and more of a focus on care and prevention. Since all insurers would be under one roof (the entity that controls the fund), they would have tremendous buying power, which would help to curb the current health care crisis caused by skyrocketing health care costs. We could possibly maintain a healthier population requiring less treatment and spend more money on care and less on overhead.

Would Single Payer Work in America?
Single Payer won’t magically fix our problems alone, but addressing the profit in healthcare funding, our current lack of bargaining power, and the simplifying of coverage options would carry many benefits for the average American.

We know that single payer technically works in America because of the single payer systems we already have like Medicaid and Medicare, whether they currently work better than the private health insurance market and whether of not that would change depending upon how we implemented single payer is another more complex debate.

Lots of places tout it but notable that it was talked about on the Obamacare website in a positive way.

[Depaysement]

51. Krugman has become

Everything he used to malign. And he is repeating his 2008 Hillary faux pas.

Feel the Bern.

[berni_mccoy]

52. Paul Krugman needs to dissaociate himself from the Internet right fucking now

As well as politics. He should stick to numbers. Oh wait. He was entirely wrong about Obama's stimulus package.

[whatchamacallit]

54. The tools are starting to rattle in the shed

This guy's opinion only has weight with the "serious grown ups" who have already seriously misjudged everything about this campaign and the current american zeitgeist. In other words

[cherokeeprogressive]

55. People get Nobel Peace Prizes for achieving peace. They get Nobel Prizes in chemistry for chemistry

In other words, most people get Nobel Prizes for tangible things.

Krugman got his Nobel Prize for writing books.

[Lucinda]

57. knr

[Billsmile]

58. The Establishment Says.....

OBEY THE ESTABLISHMENT!!!!!


The threatening tone from Krugman at the end of the article basically tells Sanders to play ball & fall in line.

[Stargleamer]

60. Krugman criticizes Bernie's plans/ideas to the hilt, is mum on Hilary's

How can you fully gauge how good or bad Bernie's ideas while not saying anything about Hilary's? Perhaps hers are worse, but he stays mum about that, except for a brief one-sentence mention of her support for the Iraq war. It just seems so unfair.

[Jarqui]

61. Here's part of Bernie's plan

1: If nothing else is done to healthcare and rates and everything else remained the same and they just remove the insurance companies admin and their profits, they would save:
- somewhere between $120 - $280 billion saved of the $1 trillion private heath care dollars
(estimates vary from 15%-31% but 3% would be needed for Medicare admin)
Economists just love the ten year figure so over ten years that is:
$1.2 Trillion to $2.8 Trillion dollars saved.

2: Other things Bernie wants to do like:
https://berniesanders.com/issues/medicare-for-all/
Progressive income tax rates.
- Revenue raised: $110 billion a year
Taxing capital gains and dividends the same as income from work.
- Revenue raised: $92 billion per year.
Limit tax deductions for rich.
- Revenue raised: $15 billion per year.
The Responsible Estate Tax.
- Revenue raised: $21 billion per year.
===========================
$ 2.38 Trillion in additional revenue over 10 years

3: Negotiate lower drug prices because we have the hammer.
https://berniesanders.com/issues/fighting-to-lower-prescription-drug-prices/
$2.9 Trillion will be spent on drugs over the next 10 years if unchecked. Canada pays 60% less. Over the next decade, conservatively, they would save
between $230 billion (8%) and $541 billion (19%).

4: Doctors cost around 20% of healthcare or $5.8 Trillion over the next 10 years. US doctors are paid way more than any other country. Bernie says we can reduce doctors salaries by 10%. To be conservative, I'd suggest a range of 5%-10% through single payer negotiation. So over 10 years that would be $290 billion to $580 billion saved

Those four things add up to a range of $4.1 Trillion to $6.3 Trillion financial improvement in health care with single payer.

So here's the point: at this juncture, nothing else has changed. Everybody is paying their premiums and deductibles to the government instead of the insurance companies.

Bernie has $400-600 million/yr right there to improve healthcare. And he has other areas he can go for revenue or recovery or savings.

This bickering with the economists is smoke. You can argue about the percentages I used or the figures. But it doesn't change the overall story in a big way. Single payer saves Trillions of dollars. The argument is what to do with that money and how much will it cost.

No matter what those economists say, single payer is a no brainer.

They're nitpicking over the other numbers.

[AgingAmerican]

63. He is a Clinton hack

He makes these stupid statements weekly. I bet she has promised him a cabinet position. It's all about pay to play in Clinton land.

[Billsmile]

72. Good FAIR Article About What's Going On With Krugman & Co.

http://fair.org/home/nyt-rounds-up-left-leaning-economists-for-a-unicorn-hunt/

[SidDithers]

73. DU rec...nt

Sid

[stevenleser]

76. And of course, Sanders supporters respond not to the ideas, but by attacking Krugman.

SOP.

[mckara]

77. Krugman Has Been Practicing Fantasy Economics for Years

Bernie's ideas are workable, if there's a will!