Clinton Leads 10 of 12 States in Early March Primaries, With Overwhelming African American Support

[MrWendel]

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/2/17/1486539/-Clinton-Leads-10-of-12-States-in-Early-March-Primaries-With-Overwhelming-African-American-Support

By First Amendment



PPP polling in 10 of the 12 early primary states found Hillary ahead solidly in most states and her lead among African American voters is massive.

Some thoughts and highlights below.

https://t.co/rYAck7vqpV


www.publicpolicypolling.com/…

New Public Policy Polling surveys of the 12 states that will hold Democratic primaries for President between March 1st and 8th, conducted on behalf of American Family Voices, find Hillary Clinton leading the way in 10 of 12, with double digit leads in 9 of them. Bernie Sanders has an overwhelming lead in his home state of Vermont and also leads in Massachusetts. The race is close in Oklahoma where Clinton is ahead by just 2 points, but she has double digit leads in the other 9 states that will have primaries that week:

(More in link)

[jeff47]

1. PPP's last NH poll: Clinton 47, Sanders 44. (nt)

[MrWendel]

5. Thats ...

slightly larger than the 47-44 one.

Also...



http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/nevada-democratic/

[jeff47]

6. Well, the actual results were 38 Clinton 60 Sanders

The point being PPP's been not doing well this year.

[Beacool]

2. Good to hear.

[Ron Green]

3. 2016 is a big test for America, and we may yet fail it.

Right now there seems to be a real momentum for a new political economy, but the forces that have gripped us for decades will not easily relinquish control.

[livetohike]

4. Looking good!

[CoffeeCat]

7. Yes, but this has been the trajectory of all states that have voted thus far

In Iowa, Bernie began at 4 percent; Clinton had 65. The state primary ended in a tie.

In NH, Bernie was behind in some polls and he ended up winning by 20+ points.

In NV, Bernie was behind 20 points in Dec, now it's a tie, according to the polls.

In the states that get to know Bernie and analyze these campaigns up close--the people break for Bernie. And Clinton loses huge leads.

Doesn't that tell you something?

The states you have listed here have not experienced the full brunt of these campaigns--the television ads, the volunteers, the phone calls, the mailers, the rallies--the whole she-bang.

Experience tells us that her numbers are not holding. They're very fragile and soft and they shift enormously once Bernie comes to town.

And the reality is (as much as many don't like to face it), this is not a black and white issue. This is a PEOPLE issue!! When PEOPLE are exposed to Bernie and these two dueling campaigns--her support tanks and his support soars.

That's a fact.

I have faith that Bernie's message with resonate with ALL PEOPLE and that he will secure the majority of these Super Tuesday states--because he is a good and decent man with the best policies and solutions to help our nation move forward and help the middle class gain back so much of what they have lost.

Just because he's losing in states with high African American populations, does not mean he's losing the African American vote. They're PEOPLE who haven't been exposed to his message. Just like the PEOPLE in my state of Iowa who had him at 4 percent.

Once they hear and learn about Bernie, they will support him.

[fun n serious]

9. I have faith Bernie's anger will show more and more

Also his demand about questions he refuses to be asked.

[CoffeeCat]

12. I really feel sorry for people

who sit around waiting for someone to implode or lose their temper or fail.

It must feel very hollow, to hitch your wagon to such negativity.

[Shadowflash]

8. At the moment.

nt.

[lunamagica]

10. K&R. YEEESSSS! Thank you. Mr Wendell!

[speaktruthtopower]

11. I just can't see..

African-Americans falling over themselves to turn out for Hillary in a post-Obama landscape.

[thesquanderer]

13. If those figures hold true, here's what the delegate count looks like

since delegates are awarded proportionately, if you look at the contests listed, it looks like roughly 504 delegates for Hillary and 334 for Bernie.

But a couple of caveats...

1. There are other contests in early March that are not listed at all: Nebraska, Colorado, Minnesota, Kansas, Maine. There are another 226 delegates at play there.

2. PPP has seriously under-projected Bernie so far. They had Bernie losing NH by 3 as of early January, so they were off by 25. They had him at 40% in Iowa as of late January, so they were off by almost 10.

[bvar22]

14. Most of the states in which Hillary is polling better than Sanders...

...are RED States that Clinton will NEVER win in the General Election.

See: Pyrrhic Victories