2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumPPP Polls: Clinton Has Double-Digit Leads In 9 Of 12 Early March Primaries
PPP has been one of the most reliable polling organizations out there:
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has a substantial advantage over Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) in most of the 12 states where Democrats will vote in early March, according to a Public Policy Polling polls released Wednesday.
The polls showed Clinton leading in 10 of the 12 states, most of which are in the South, with a double-digit lead in nine of them. She leads by 10 percentage points or more in Alabama (59 percent to 31 percent), Arkansas (57-32), Georgia (60-26), Louisiana (60-29), Michigan (50-40), Mississippi (60-26), Tennessee (58-32), Texas (57-34) and Virginia (56-34), while leading in one closer race in Oklahoma (46-44) and losing in one in Massachusetts (42-49). The only strong lead for Sanders in the states polled was in his home state of Vermont, where he stood at 86 percent to Clintons 10 percent.
The PPP poll shows much stronger support for Clinton among black voters than for Sanders, reflecting a potential shift in the political dynamic of their race as it moves into states with more diverse populations than early-voting Iowa and New Hampshire. In states where the black voting population exceeds the national average, the poll shows that Clinton leads among black voters by consistently crushing margins. Sanders strongest showing with this demographic is in Texas, where he trails Clinton by 40 percentage points. His weakest is in Arkansas, where Clinton leads by 62 percentage points.
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http://talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/clinton-leads-12-states-ppp
Topline results here:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/March2016PrimariesPollingProject.pdf
jeff47
(26,549 posts)Ferd Berfel
(3,687 posts)CoffeeCat
(24,411 posts)...up close and person have either been a tie or a big win for Sanders?
The farther you are away from Clinton--the stronger her numbers are. The more people get to know Bernie--the more he soars and she tanks.
We're seeing this happen currently, in Nevada. The more his message it out there, people just flock to Bernie.
Clinton's numbers are soft. They are not based on passion for her candidacy. That is why those numbers so easily erode away. In my state of Iowa, she started at 65 percent and Bernie had 4 percent. In NH, Bernie was behind in some polls, then he beat her by 20+. Now in Nevada, the latest two polls show a tie. Clinton once enjoyed a 20-point lead in NV in December.
When people meet the campaigns--they fall for Bernie. This is NOT good news for Clinton.
Her support, thus far--erodes easily and quickly when the campaigns heat up in those states.
Ron Green
(9,823 posts)Right now there seems to be real momentum for a new political economy, but the forces that have gripped us for decades will not easily relinquish control.