Hillary Clinton’s Firewall May Be Missing Some Bricks
By Philip Bump February 17 at 11:50 AM
If you were to scoop up a handful of Democratic primary voters from any one of the early primary states, they'd generally contain a pretty similar demographic mix, for the most part. 2016 so far is shaking out like the electorate in 2008: Slightly more women, generally older, a more liberal electorate now than then, and a mix of educational attainment, but not huge differences.
Until you looked at race. In some states, like Iowa and New Hampshire, everyone would be white. In others, like South Carolina, most of the voters would be black.
Quinnipiac University released a new poll on Wednesday which shows how those various groups look at the two remaining Democratic contenders. The biggest gulfs between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders fall along ideological, age and racial lines.
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Since ideology and age don't vary as much between states, let's set them aside for a second. Let's instead focus on race.
Iowa and New Hampshire, as we've noted before, are far whiter than most other states -- including Nevada and South Carolina, the next two states to vote in the 2016 contest. A new CNN/ORC poll in South Carolina shows that Hillary Clinton has a gigantic lead among non-white voters in the state, and therefore a gigantic lead overall. South Carolina is the first brick in what's become known as Clinton's "firewall" -- the states with big non-white populations where she should have a big advantage.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/02/17/hillary-clintons-firewall-may-be-missing-some-bricks/
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