fivethirtyeight has Bernie pulling ahead in Nevada

[UglyGreed]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/nevada-democratic/

[cali]

1. Interesting

No wonder the smell of flop sweat is wafting so strongly from the Clinton campaign

[UglyGreed]

3. I was wondering

where that was coming from

[Paulie]

18. This flop sweat business

Every time I see it I snort outloud. Right now on the commuter train and last night at midnight reading DU and WHAM see flop sweat and scared the cat.

[dana_b]

22. Yes, Bernie and we are ruining their plans for a third term!!

oops!

[amborin]

26. LOL

[Trajan]

2. Oh Hell yeah ...

If he wins Nevada, Clinton is in serious trouble ..

If, by the smallest chance Bernie wins BOTH Nevada and SC? ... We could see a departure from the field ...

[thereismore]

25. I wonder why SC is such a big deal. It does not have demographics close to national average. nt

[HooptieWagon]

27. If Sanders does well in SC, it destroys the meme.

He doesn't even have to win...just get into single digits in margin of loss. That would mean a substantial number of AAs do support Sanders, and cause the others to give him a closer look.

[thereismore]

29. Exactly. That's all he needs. And he's going to get it. nt

[HooptieWagon]

32. I'm pretty sure he will.

[cannabis_flower]

135. I'm thinking

He will do better than expected in SC. SC is an open primary state. You have to register by January 27, but you can vote in either primary (but not both). Most recent polls contacted likely voters. I'm not sure but I think that they mean voters likely to vote in the Democratic primary, but if there are a lot of crossover votes that could be inaccurate.

[HooptieWagon]

138. I think so too. He'll get within single digit gap in the results.

Which is one hell of a rally from being down by 30 or 40 at New Years. And it also means he's gotten 40+% of black vote...they're taking a closer look at him an liking what they're seeing.

[Trajan]

28. It would be a very public psychological blow

The campaign would crumble under the weight ....

I can see them limp along afterward, but severely diminished ...

[nxylas]

121. It's an early state

And, more importantly, politics tends to be divided along racial lines. There are individual exceptions, of course there are, but in general, the white folks vote Republican and the black folks vote Democratic.

[demwing]

38. Clinton will not drop before Super Tuesday

she's much too ambitious.

but if sh does poorly in both states (even if she wins SC) there will be calls from here team to go for the jugular.

Shit is about to hit.

Should be interesting.

[Indepatriot]

48. You're dreaming, Hillary and the DNC will fight to the end. They know no bottom.

They will burn it to the ground before we're allowed to push them aside.

[elljay]

99. Agreed

What worries me is that the superdelegates may, for the first time, vote for their candidate rather than for the person who won the popular vote. That would be devastating for the Democratic Party.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

102. The soul of the party really is at stake and for many this election will end their career....

They have been practicing speeches about the American People sending a clear and final message rejecting liberalism for all time.

All hail the practical "center".

[Cal33]

125. It's more likely that the dnc will fight to the end, and it's also likely that they will fight

the way Republicans do, if necessary. I've noticed that some Third-Way Democrats behave more like
Republicans than Democrats in that respect

[Volaris]

132. Not until someone has enough delegates.

Clinton has the money to stay in, and so she will stay in until math says she CANNOT be the nominee.

[me b zola]

4. "Its happening"

I really want that Bernie gif

[UglyGreed]

5. here ya go

[cui bono]

9. if it's worth showing once...

it's worth showing a second time:




FEEL THE BERN!!!


.

[me b zola]

10. Thank you, thank you

This makes me happy every time I see it

[UglyGreed]

16. Any time

[demwing]

40. love that gif, but this one has hands!

[me b zola]

42. That one scares me a little, lol

But thank you for the choice

[demwing]

45. it would be nicer if Bernie was similing

didn't mean to scare you

[dorkzilla]

46. Yeah, that one's gonna give me nightmares nt

[me b zola]

14. WooHoo!! Its happening!

[dana_b]

21. It's ALL happening!!

Woo hoo!!!

[ms liberty]

119. Wish I could rec this

One of my favorite movies.

[ladjf]

6. Go Bernie!!!!! ------> nt

[Matariki]

7. Yeah, but it doesn't count

because Nevada is all white people. Or something

[azmom]

8. Wonderful news.

[thereismore]

11. Nevada is NOT representative of the country and definitely NOT part of her western firewall.

[KingFlorez]

12. They changed that days ago due to Rove's poll

Nothing new here.

[cui bono]

15. Welcome to the thread!

.

[cui bono]

13. And fivethirtyeight can't be knocked by Hillarians since they were proudly stating it was right!

after Hillary 'won' Iowa.



.

[jeff47]

78. I think you overestimate the value they put on consistency. (nt)

[in_cog_ni_to]

17. BAM! By Saturday, that will be ever higher!

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

[ejbr]

19. Could Nate be pulling our chain?

We were kinda harsh about his predictions up to now.

[HooptieWagon]

30. Sanders votes have been exceeding polls so far.

[SheilaT]

33. No. Nate Silver, for all his flaws,

is completely honest in his assessment of these things. He was incredibly correct back in '08, and notice he's posting new information/polling as he gets it.

He's still showing Clinton with a 99% chance of winning in SC, but the story there is going to be all about the actual voter breakdown. She won't win 99% of the delegates. She'll most likely get more than half, but Bernie will get the rest, and all the crowing her supporters -- especially the ones here -- will do after that primary will be designed to obfuscate the fact that she will have done much worse than projected even a few weeks ago.

[Land Shark]

118. Silver's figure has declined to 69%.... not what you quoted. Nt

[SheilaT]

120. I obviously looked at an older

post of his.

But I still say he does not game his own system. He calls them as he sees them. It's possible that each year the metrics (if that's the correct word) change a bit, and that polls that were highly reliable in the past are less so now.

I do think what a lot of people are missing is the entire momentum factor. This early on there are still voters out there who haven't really heard of Bernie Sanders. Not the huge numbers as last summer, but since he's only recently gotten much media attention, those who aren't political junkies like those of us on DU, are only now learning much about him.

Another huge factor that I also think is overlooked is that most people want to vote for a winner. So a lot of not every engaged voters who are currently saying they haven't decided who they'll vote for, will decide on the front-runner, whoever that may be. But people don't express themselves exactly that way. We do have an awful lot of people who are sticking with Hillary, despite their genuine misgivings about her, because they see her as electable in November, but not Bernie. They are wrong about that, but meanwhile around 70% of Dems still say they expect her to be the nominee.

It's more subtle and more complicated, especially this far out, than is generally acknowledged.

[senz]

20. Makes me feel so so so

Yeah. Happy.

[me b zola]

34. "Here come bad news talkin' this n that..."

"...well give me all ya got and don't hold back. I should probably warn ya I'll be just fine. No offense to you, don't waste your time."

Because....

[vdogg]

23. Based on a single 45/45 poll?

I'm not sure how they are calculating this? How does 45/45 translate into 51/49? All the older polls were lopsided towards Clinton so this appears based on a single result.

[HooptieWagon]

36. 51/49 is % chance of winning, not a poll.

I'm guessing it's based on momentum, since Sanders has closed from 20 pts down to a tie in 6 weeks.

[yourout]

62. Another trend is working class independants going heavily to Bernie in the 1st two primaries.

Many polls are party specific.

[HooptieWagon]

63. Yes. And day of caucus registration for Dems.

No one knows how many indies will show up to caucus for Bernie.

[yourout]

66. I'm guessing Bernie takes this easily.

5 to 10 percent.

[HooptieWagon]

67. That would be my guess.

Though delegates could end up like 50/50. The caucus precincts don't have equal turnout, and idk how Nev awards delegates.

[Duckfan]

105. He should

A lot of homeowners are likely pissed at the fact Wall Streets collapse hurt of lot of home owners in Las Vegas hard. I believe LV had the highest foreclosure rate in the country. I just hope Bernie reminds voters of the housing crisis.

[George II]

89. Well, sir, they just adjusted it this morning to 69/31% for Clinton. Maybe because of momentum?

[stopbush]

37. 538 is weighing the fact that Clinton had huge leads in every poll taken recently

against the fact that this one latest poll shows a tie. That translates into momentum which looks to be in Sanders favor.

However, the poll he is using is a push poll that was conducted by a Republican outfit for a Republican organization. Even though the other polls he cited were done by organizations that display no obvious bias, he is giving this poll the same if not more weight than more-impartial polls because it's more recent.

The big problem with polling in NV is that there basically isn't any. The push poll 538 is using is all that's available. It could indicate a trend or it could be worthless.

Jon Ralston said over the weekend that while there has been movement in Sanders' direction, Hillary is still leading comfortably. That said, he is not entirely dismissive of this poll being cited by 538. He just feels it's being given too much weight, all things considered.

So, Sanders supporters should feel good about 538's analysis, but they should also hold out a modicum of skepticism considering everything mentioned above.

[uponit7771]

60. what the hell is silvers doing weighting that poll so heavy?!

[stopbush]

69. Well, he isn't really giving Sanders an edge at all.

51-49 today, who knows what it will be tomorrow.

It's not even a poll. It's a trend based on a poll.

Since Sanders didn't do the ground work in NV, he's trying to catch up with a heavy TV ad buy. I don't see how that gets people out to caucus for you.

[uponit7771]

77. Whaaaaaat?! I thought Sanders gg in NV and SC was really heavy... that's surprising...

... I like Sanders but his crew is lax

[firebrand80]

24. Curious what his numbers with Hispanics are nt

[stopbush]

41. The big number in Vegas is the union number, many of whose members are Hispanic.

Hillary has all the union endorsements except Culinary, which refuse to endorse anyone.

I lived in Vegas for 3 years. It is a BIG union town. If union members turn out to caucus, Hillary will have a great night, no matter what else happens.

[jeff47]

79. You left out a step.

If union members turn out to caucus, and follow union leadership, Hillary will have a great night

[stopbush]

82. Why wouldn't they follow the leadership?

Ever been in a union? I have. People have a collective sense of what the group should do.

And of course there's pressure to do what the group thinks. May not matter in a secret vote, but it matters in a caucus where everybody in the room sees exactly who you're supporting.

[jeff47]

83. Well, so far the unions that actually polled their members back Sanders

The unions where the leadership made the choice back Clinton.

It's not unreasonable to believe that dichotomy might show up on election day.

[stopbush]

86. Do you have a source for that claim?

Thank you.

[jeff47]

87. The individual endorsements from each union.

I'm sure you can find them.

[stopbush]

91. Not going to bother. If you can't provide the source to back your own

statement, why should I bother?

[jeff47]

92. Yes, you shouldn't waste your beautiful mind on that.

There's how many union endorsements? You want me to link every single one for you to peruse.

And once you read every one and find that I'm right, you will claim the membership voted for the leadership, so they must all agree with the leadership on everything.

'Cause this has come up before many times on DU. And apparently you're so aware of union issues you've missed every single one.

[lunamagica]

100. Actually, Hillary won union members i Iowa. eom

[jeff47]

101. And shey may win them in NV. But IMO we should not assume the membership

will blindly follow the leadership.

[lunamagica]

104. Of course we shouldn't assume that. But so far, the actual voting

has the union members favoring Hillary.

[jeff47]

106. In IA, but not in NH. (nt)

[Kalidurga]

31. I am waiting for Saturday's poll to come to any conclusions.

[JackRiddler]

44. Yeah, that would be the one.

[hoosierlib]

35. There's a reason HRC cancelled her Florida trip last weekend

Her internal polls must be showing something...

[HooptieWagon]

39. Florida is probably safe for her. Closed primary.

[Fuddnik]

55. Today was the last day to change party affiliation.

The trend the last few years the trend has been people leaving parties. This cycle, almost 2,000 in my county alone switched from Indy to Dem. The repukes, a hair higher. And you can bet they weren't changing affiliation to vote for Hillary.

I dropped off 2 absentees for Bernie yesterday. I was wearing a Bernie shirt, and everywhere I went yesterday, Best Buy, Lowes, a restaurant, grocery store and, a bar, I got compliments.

[HooptieWagon]

57. Correctomundo. I double checked mine online.

I'm hoping in a few days the Sec of State will release the numbers of new registrations and party switches. That will give us an idea of how close Sanders is going to be.

[sadoldgirl]

43. As much as I would like

to believe it, I don't.

Reason: small caucuses are extremely
hard to predict.

So I just cross my fingers and hope, hope, and hope!

[azurnoir]

47. Here's hoping he's right

[dwrjr]

49. Did 538 remove their prediction?

The op link to fivethirtyeight.com goes to a page that says they have no current prediction for the nevada democratic caucuses. Maybe they have removed that latest poll for being too biased?
Anyway, on their blog their pundits all agree that if the results are like iowa, it's "bad, bad news" for Clinton. And, if Sanders wins there, it's "bad, bad, bad news" for Clinton. They have no idea who will win!
Feel the Bern!

[wryter2000]

103. Welcome to DU

[dwrjr]

140. Thanks from NZ

American living in NZ.
Feeling the Bern all the way "down" here.

[wryter2000]

144. Lucky you!

Love New Zealand.

[kstewart33]

130. DWR, take another look. Clinton 69% and Bernie 31%. nt

[WillyT]

50. HUGE K & R !!! - Thank You !!!

[Feeling the Bern]

51. And boom goes the dynamite and then boom goes all Camp Weathervane's supporter's heads

They are beginning to realize that it's going to happen twice. . .the coronation won't happen. It didn't in 2008 when she was overthrown by, as Obama said in the 2004 Keynote, "A skinny black kid with a funny name."

And it's going to happen again with a Brooklyn born Socialist!


Go Bernie! Go! Sanders/O'Malley 2016!

[saltpoint]

52. Would love to see Bernie do well

there in Nevada. Hell of an interesting state what with the Renos, the casinos, and the palominos.

Quite a damn few horses out in Nevada. I'm pretty sure they're Bernie supporters. For more information, please contact quardropedsfordemocraticsocialism.com.

I happen to like horses. And I happen to like Bernie Sanders.

[MisterP]

53. we've got to lose that sax solo

[saltpoint]

56. o my god. In that one scene the

horse is actually turning away, as if to say, "Dear god, let me out of this contract, wouldja please? Life is too short."

those high-vibrancy sparkle jackets would look good on Rick Santorum, wouldn't they? Would that he had gotten himself a couple of those... he might still be in the running.

[SciDude]

54. Did you see that trend line??

As recently as the past few days it was trending 50% (Clinton) to 38% (Sanders) and that lead just vanished.

Clinton has to be having a stroke and deja vu from 2008.

[6chars]

58. there's been a lot more about so. car. in the news the last few days

not that much about Nevada even tho it's this week. curious.

[AzDar]

59. Go, Bernie GO!!

[JRLeft]

61. 51% you might as well call that 50/50

[nadinbrzezinski]

64. It is in play

and that will be very interesting to watch

[George II]

65. No, 538 doesn't have "Bernie pulling ahead in Nevada".

What they do show is the "probability" of Sanders winning being 1% "higher" than that of Clinton winning.

But this comes with a pound of salt.

First, they still show Clinton ahead in both their "Polls-plus forecast" and "Polls-only forecast".

Second, they haven't yet discounted a republican-run "poll" by TargetPoint, a right-wing organization with a number of ex-members of various republican presidents' administrations on their "Executive Team".

http://www.targetpointconsulting.com/pages/executive_team

It is also based on a very small sampling of Nevada polls. Here are the only polls released since the fall:

FEB. 8-10 TargetPoint Tie 45% 45%
DEC. 23-27 Gravis Marketing Clinton +23 50% 27%
NOV. 10-16 Morning Consult Clinton +29 59% 30%
OCT. 3-10 Opinion Research Corporation Clinton +16 50% 34%

Interesting that of all the hundreds of polls released since the primary campaigns began, it looks like only one Democratic poll has been released by this "pollster".

To demonstrate the level of sophistication (and obvious bias against Clinton), here is one of the questions from this "poll":

"Recently several news organizations have reported that the FBI could indict Hillary Clinton over her handling of her email server. How concerned are you that she could actually face such an indictment?"

When did the FBI begin issuing indictments? Easy answer - NEVER!

So, throwing out this obviously biased and phony "poll", since the fall Clinton has maintained at least a 27% lead in Nevada. It's most likely only a matter of time before 538 throws this poll out, too.

[DCBob]

68. +1

[Lucinda]

71. They corrected it and have her slightly ahead again 45.2 Clinton to 44.8 Bernie

And all still based on the push poll.

[George II]

74. Without that "poll" Clinton would be ahead by at least 27%. Makes me happy.....

[Lucinda]

75. Well...Republicans can caucus in both primaries - due to some loophole, so I think that's why

there aren't any new polls to speak of. They just don't know what is going to happen.

https://politicalwire.com/2016/02/15/nevada-republicans-could-vote-in-democratic-caucus/

[John Poet]

80. THIS poll showed Sanders within 4 points in late January.

http://overtimepolitics.com/clinton-holds-slight-lead-over-sanders-in-nevada-47-43/

So the "Republican push-poll" was not the only one that narrowed the results.

[George II]

84. Well sir, 538 has now adjusted their chance of Clinton winning to a more realistic 69%.

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/nevada-democratic/

[basselope]

93. Based on the heavy weight it is giving a poll that shows the race within 1

Very odd, since momentum is clearly going to Sanders.

[Sheepshank]

112. I wondered if 538 reputation would be important in providing a correction....good!!!

i suppose the could have tried to hide the mistake and bury it elsewhere in order to maintain a reputation. i am glad they cleared it up though!!!!

[George II]

117. They've been at this game for a long time, they won't do anything to tarnish their reputation.

[MohRokTah]

70. Your subject line is a direct falsehood. Your link says nothing of the sort. eom

[Lucinda]

72. It was when I followed the OP's link earlier - but they corrected it and Hillary has the lead again

And it's still using that push poll, so it is all pretty unreliable anyway

[MohRokTah]

73. NV is impossible to poll anyway.

A candidate can win the raw vote by thousands of votes through huge wins in Las Vegas and Reno, but still lose the caucus miserably by losing the rural precincts.

It's all about the delegates in NV.

[Lucinda]

76. Have you seen the article about Reps being able to vote in both the Dem and their own caucuses?

https://politicalwire.com/2016/02/15/nevada-republicans-could-vote-in-democratic-caucus/


I think it may be why we arent seeing any new polls. With the nature of the caucus system you pointed out, and the prospect of Republican meddling, they just don't know what will happen.

[George II]

85. Clinton SURGES ahead of Sanders on 538, they now have Clinton with a 69% chance of winning....

....and Sanders with only 31% chance of winning in Nevada.

I guess they did their due diligence and discounted the weight of that right wing bogus poll released over the weekend:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/nevada-democratic/

Chance of winning - Clinton 69%, Sanders 31%
Polls-plus Forecast - Clinton 52.1%, Sanders 46.0%

[workinclasszero]

88. Aww Bernie fans haz a sad

[vdogg]

97. Lol

[basselope]

94. Yeah, it's looking pretty good for Sanders.

Latest ORC poll shows the race within 1 re-enforcing the fact that race is now tight and Sanders has all the momentum.

[Duval]

90. Go Bernie Go! nt

[JohnnyRingo]

95. Don't click on that link

It shows a 2 to 1 win for Hillary.

[still_one]

107. A Caucus is much more difficult to predict, and from what I have read Nevada is even more difficult

for some reason.

Personally I have always viewed Nevada as close, and essentially a tie.

[quakerboy]

96. Wha?

At your link, it has
Chance of winning: Hillary 69/bernie31
Projected results: Hillary 52%, bernie 46%
Polling average: Hillary 47%, Bernie 45%
Not a single poll that places Bernie ahead. One tie, and all the rest in Hillary's favor.

Pulling ahead in what regard?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

98. What is amazing is his polls plus model picked Cruz in IA...

What is amazing is his polls plus model picked Cruz in IA when everybody and their brother was picking Trump.

[quakerboy]

143. What is amazing

is that with virtually no polls (ones from last year seem relatively irrelevant) except a +1 and a tie, they are willing to predict a winner.

[brush]

108. There's another post today that says 538 gives Clinton a 69% chance of winning

This post says just the opposite.

What's up?

[Cheese Sandwich]

109. it changed overnight

[brush]

111. It changed that much?

Here's a link to the 538 post:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511256277

Guess we just have to ignore the polls and wait and see.

[Cheese Sandwich]

113. Yes I saw 538 yesterday they

were saying Bernie had a 51% chance of winning Nevada.

It changed overnight. They didn't add any new polls though.

[demwing]

141. Easy answer

The check cleared

[Betty Karlson]

110. The pollsters feel obliged to catch up with reality? eom

[peggysue2]

114. Another Misleading Headline

Hillary Clinton with a 69% chance of taking Nevada does not a flipped result make. Nor will wishful thinking or misleading headlines make it so.

HILLARY 2016
"I am not a one issue candidate . . ."

[Helen Borg]

115. This is fucked up...

The site only lists two polls with any weight:
Feb 8-10, N=1236, Tie at 45%
Feb 10-15, N=282, C=48%, S=47%

And yet, Clinton is predicted to have a 69% chance to win (6% projected size of win)? That makes no sense...

[Gothmog]

116. The latest Nate Silver projections have Clinton way up on Sanders

[Helen Borg]

122. No new info and projections change...

A bit odd.

[eviliberal]

123. Not today

12:31 PM EST | Feb 17, 2016
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/nevada-democratic/

[UglyGreed]

124. They must of received word to

Correct the Record.................

[Robbins]

126. they suddenly changed it

even though we had 2 polls with them tied or her with just 1 point lead.

And people try to claim MSM isn't biased towards clinton over bernie.

[morningfog]

136. Yep. No new poll but the "polls only" forecast flipped.

Interesting.

[MrWendel]

127. Interesting....

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/nevada-democratic/

[kgnu_fan]

128. growing....

[kstewart33]

129. UG, am I misreading the chart?

I clicked on your link and 538's prediction as of this afternoon (12:31 eastern time) has Clinton with a 69% and Bernie with a 31% chance of winning.

[kstewart33]

131. Very curious as Nate Silver doesn't play games.

Silver doesn't play games as it's his reputation on the line. He correctly picked the winner in every state in the 2012 presidential election.

He must have seen something change overnight or this AM. Wish he'd let us in on it.

[dubyadiprecession]

133. I like woody allen movies, but this one has been going on too long.

[lobodons]

134. Screw Nate Silver!! What does he know anyway!!

He recently reported that my Kansas City Royals will finish in last place next year. Screw Nate Silver!! This guy must be an Amateur I tell you!!

[Persondem]

137. NOT ANYMORE. It's Clinton with a 69% chance for the win and Sanders at 31%

Thank you for posting.

[George II]

139. New update! Clinton's chance of winning the Nevada caucuses...

...was increased to 69% this morning, and just a little while ago was further increased to 70%.

[mvd]

142. K&R

If he gets Nevada, there's a still a chance the momentum will get him through Super Tuesday, which has a lot of tough Southern states.