3rd Recent Poll Shows South Carolina Cooling the Bern

[Stallion]

3 recent polls
Clinton +18
Clinton +38
Clinton +19

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/south-carolina-democratic/

[Dawson Leery]

1. She is still averaging 61%.

If that's the case, Berns is done.

[RobertEarl]

13. SC belongs to Hillary

If she doesn't get more than 75% of the vote it means she is losing the south.

Bernie is a Yankee! And he's not a bible beater! And he's against the military and he's a socialist.

Yep, if Hill doesn't score at least 75% it's a sure sign she's really lost.

[KingFlorez]

2. The odds of Sanders winning there remain long

Those expecting a repeat of New Hampshire are going to be sadly mistaking. Sanders definitely isn't going to win by 20% here.

[Dawson Leery]

3. I've been told that Berns is going to have a repeat performance of NH in SC.

Hillary will win here, both the popular vote and delegate count.

[JI7]

4. i don't think anyone thinks he will get same results in SC

as he got in NH.

[Fawke Em]

6. You've not been told that here.

I don't expect it, but I do expect him a closer second that these polls currently show.

Why? Because there are still a lot of people who haven't made up their minds, yet.

And, if he wins or ties in Nevada, that number will go up even more.

I expect him within 10 points of her in South Carolina, which still isn't the drubbing he gave her in NH.

[KingFlorez]

9. And when he doesn't repeat New Hampshire, fraud will be claimed

Wait for it, because you know it is coming.

[Punkingal]

16. Oh for Christ's sake. No one will claim any such thing.

[KingFlorez]

19. Sure

On primary night, a different tune with be sung.

[earthshine]

21. Straw-man statement. You have no basis for saying this except to express your frustrations. nt

[KingFlorez]

23. Ok

We'll see what happens after the South Carolina primary.

[earthshine]

32. I see you want to have the last word. Okay! Write back. nt

[workinclasszero]

26. You know it's coming

It's a conspiracy

[Jester Messiah]

10. Not by anyone credible you haven't.

I think Bernie will narrow it up a good bit, but a win in SC would be surprising. I've got high hopes for Bernie's odds in NV though.

[cali]

11. Bullfuckingshit. Not here you haven't

[kath]

27. Allow me to re-express that for you:

[Arazi]

20. Link? I haven't seen anyone say that eom

[99Forever]

29. Post a link to that claim or be outed as a liar.

Put up or shut up.

[thesquanderer]

14. I've never heard anyone say he'd win by 20%. He'd be very lucky to win at all.

Back in October I posted, "I'd be impressed if he reduced the spread with HRC from its current 50 points to even get within 20." Two of these three polls say he'll do it. So even that really isn't bad, considering.

Though the spread among these polls is unusually extreme!

[SDJay]

5. That's Interesting...

I have not seen one thing anywhere on the innerwebs stating that Bernie would see a repeat of NH in SC. Does anyone have a link so I can take a look at that? I'm curious as to how anyone could think that.

Thanks in advance.

[Fawke Em]

7. No one does.

They're putting words in Bernie supporters' mouths.

[nc4bo]

12. *crickets* nt

[doxyluv13]

8. South Carolina is a Tiny State and a Republican Stronghold

Hope they don't have too much impact on who gets the nomination.

[Stuckinthebush]

15. The Dems there are pretty damn Demy

So I think their influence in the nomination of the Dem is warranted.

[kath]

18. The only polling outfit that has done more than one SC poll in the past 3 months is YouGov, and they

Show Bernie steadily narrowing the gap:

Bernie behind by 47 in Nov, 36 in Dec., 22 in Jan., and 19 now.

[jfern]

22. 20 points is much closer than before

And ARG is a terrible pollster

[Kentonio]

24. If he can get it to within 10 I'll be happy

Within 5 and I'll be ecstatic. A win of any size, and the race is basically over.

[workinclasszero]

25. Feel the heartbern

Bernie

[kath]

28. Does HRC have positive momentum in ANY state? Seems that her numbers just go down, down, down,

,,while Bernie's go up and up.

[Paulie]

34. The state of entropy?

[hoosierlib]

30. A good trend...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-4167.html

Bernie should get it below a 10% margin of victory...

I still don't think the African American vote will be higher than the historic average of 48% (it was 55% in 2008 and most polls are using models assuming 52%)...

[noretreatnosurrender]

31. Making Progress

The +18 and +19 are most certainly an improvement. I don't expect Sanders to win SC. I do expect him to narrow the gap with Black voters.

[Stallion]

33. PPP Makes it 4

just saw Clinton +20 on Maddow

[mhatrw]

35. If Clinton can not win in a primary which is closed to independent voters and in which blacks

make up 55% of registered Democrats, then in which state can she win?

[Stallion]

36. She's Going to Win Just About all of Them

Last edited Tue Feb 16, 2016, 05:32 PM - Edit history (1)

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