I know Hillary is favored to do well in the South but what about states like CA, CO, OR, NY, NJ, PA?

[Quixote1818]

Has there been any analysis on other NE and Western States? Some of these seem to be a good fit for Sanders, especially if he won NH by a 20 pt. margin. We already know it has tightened up in Nevada.

[TDale313]

1. I've seen her running ahead in CA

And we did go for her in '08. That said it's way early. We don't vote till June.

[Quixote1818]

2. Those huge leads are name recognition and most people don't look close at the election until about

two weeks before it occurs.

[gwheezie]

4. Then we'll know better 2 weeks before their primaries

Why ask now? I see all states tightening up.

[TDale313]

5. Yep. I think Sanders will do well here if it's still a contest by then. n/t

[jfern]

13. She was up only 11 points in Field a month ago

If it's 2008 redux, Bernie wins California.

[6chars]

3. the question is whether winning the south will give her the momentum

or whether different states are different states

[leftofcool]

6. She is anywhere from 20-50 points ahead in those states.

[Quixote1818]

8. Name recognition.

Nate Silver has said over and over that people don't look at the candidates closely until about two weeks before their election and then make their final choice one to two days before. Any poll beyond two weeks out from the primary is absolutely meaningless.

[Bluenorthwest]

12. In your fever dreams. The last Oregon polling I know of was in August and Hillary had a 5 point lead

44-39. That was polling done end of July, so that slight lead is long shot to hell. Here's a link, what do you have?
"The July 25-27 survey by Portland-based DHM Research shows Clinton, the former secretary of state, leading the Democratic primary in Oregon with 44 percent of the vote to 39 percent for Sanders, a Vermont senator."
http://www.oregonlive.com/mapes/index.ssf/2015/08/oregon_presidential_poll_hilla.html

[HooptieWagon]

7. I think she loses all those.

Plus Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio, and several others. She'll still do well in the Confederate South, but a single digit loss by Sanders in SC could weaken her firewall in the south, and cause Blacks to take a closer look at Sanders before deciding. I'm guessing she's safe in Florida.

[DCBob]

9. Depends on what happens on Super Tuesday.

[Quixote1818]

10. Good point. However, if Sanders wins Nevada and if he wins CO, MN, MA, VT,

Clinton would have TX, OK, AR, TN, AL, GA, NC, SC, VA

Sanders would have: NH, MA, MN, CO, NV, VT,

This puts it at 6 to 9 with one tie.

VA might go sanders too but doubtful.

Iowa basically a tie

It still looks like a horserace and moves to more neutral territory after that. It then ends up a horserace until the last few states.

My mistake as I thought WY and AK went on Super Tuesday but only for Republicans.

[DCBob]

11. I dont agree with the list of states you gave to Bernie.

Those will certainly be more competitive but I doubt he wins them all.