STATE OF THE PRIMARY - February 14, 2016

[Chichiri]

[font color="blue"]Delegate Count
Total Delegates (AP): Clinton 394, Sanders 44.
Pledged Delegates: Sanders 36, Clinton 32.
Delegate Targets (Cook): Clinton +7, Sanders -7.


Next Primary
Nevada, February 20 (35 pledged delegates).


Latest Polls
Nevada (TargetPoint): Clinton 45, Sanders 45.
South Carolina (ARG): Clinton 65, Sanders 27.
South Carolina (CBS/YouGov): Clinton 59, Sanders 40.


Current Polls-Plus Projections (538)
Nevada: Clinton/Sanders 50%.
South Carolina: Clinton 99%+.
Michigan: Clinton 97%.
North Carolina: Clinton 96%.


Current Endorsement Score (538)
Clinton 467, Sanders 2.[/font]


[font color="brown"]Quick Glance at the GOP
Pledged Delegates: Trump 17, Cruz 11, Rubio 10.
Delegate Targets: Trump -4, Cruz -5, Rubio -10.
538 South Carolina Projection: Trump 70%, Rubio 14%.
Endorsement Score: Rubio 65, Bush 51, Kasich 20.[/font]


Comments
Happy Valentine's Day.

So Scalia's dead. How this will affect the primary remains to be seen, but I'm positive it will be affected in one respect or another. Meanwhile, I was raised to say something nice when someone dies, even an enemy, so let me say this about Scalia: he was a far, far better man than Mao Zedong.

The Nevada poll was conducted both before and after the NH primary. The SC polls were conducted after. The TargetPoint poll is a pro-Sanders push poll conducted by the far-right Washington Free Beacon. 538's projection is based on it, however, because it's the only recent poll.

Everyone was civil when I posted this in GD-P yesterday, so I'll keep doing it for the time being. If you have a suggestion for a scorecard or model not covered above, let me know.


[font color="purple"]Pun of the Day
I learned sign language a few years ago. It's pretty handy.[/font]

[hr]

[yallerdawg]

1. Well, as they say, deep down Antonin Scalia was probably a good person.

6 feet down.

[jmowreader]

10. I don't believe that, and neither do you

It will take 100 to 150 years to reverse all the damage Scalia and his four confederates on the Supreme Court caused this nation. They say not to speak ill of the dead. That's a nice way to live and in most cases you should heed it, but I can't do it when it comes to Antonin Scalia. He was evil from the peak of his receding hairline to the tips of his cloven hooves. The nicest thing I can say about him is that he can't hurt us any more than he already has.

[mgmaggiemg]

20. allelujia! allelujia!! alleeeeeeeeelujia!!

amen

[workinclasszero]

2. Thanks for the info

[TheProgressive]

3. You wrote 'Total Delegates- what exactly does that mean? And

Can delegates in 'total delegates' change their mind or is it definitive?

[JonLeibowitz]

6. Yes, they can change their mind. It's why Clinton's lead is misleading.

[TheProgressive]

8. Yes,

I know Jon and thanks - I was hoping the author of this tread would possible
update their thread with 'more accurate' information.

Cheers!

[Chichiri]

9. That's why I have both total and pledged delegates.

I think they're both good indicators about the state of the race; if you disagree, you can look at one or the other.

[TheProgressive]

11. Well, since you asked for suggestions...

Since you wrote that you will be posting new versions of your post, may
I suggest this: Include some sort of note that states that there is a difference
in delegates and that 'other than primary and caucus' delegates can and 99%
will change their votes based on who wins the states.

What do you think?

[Chichiri]

13. I have no evidence that that 99% figure is true.

I have no idea where you got it, frankly -- as far as I'm aware, only once has the margin been narrow enough for the superdelegates to make a difference. Some went over to Obama in that case because he won the pledged delegates, but a single instance is hardly a good sample size.

What I will do, though, is disclaim that the supers can change their mind right up until the convention.

[Go Vols]

4. Democratic Delegate Count

Sanders 36

Clinton 32

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

[OhZone]

5. Nice!

Predictwise holding pretty steady!

Predictwise
Dem nomination.
Hillary Clinton 83%
Bernie Sanders 17%

2016 President Winner
Democratic 61%
Republican 39%

South Carolina
HRC 89%
BS 11%

Nevada
HRC 57%
BS 43%

I'm surprised predict wise doesn't have things closer with Nevada, but they were right with Iowa and NH so -

[Quixote1818]

7. Very little polling in Nevada right now. People probably don't know what to think

Most of the other states are too far out for any polling to mean much. People generally make up their mind in the last few days before the election which is why anything passed Nevada is meaningless right now.

[restorefreedom]

12. please correct the dem delegate count, it is incorrect.

the total is wrong. the supers don't vote until the convention. those are intentions to vote, not actual votes.

the totals are

sanders 36
clinton 32


period.

[Chichiri]

14. Actually, there are no actual votes right now.

Even the pledged delegates can change their minds -- they are not technically bound to the candidate they were appointed for. In fact, they change their votes all the time, usually to support the presumptive nominee when their own guy has dropped out of the race, but that needn't happen for them to change their minds.

So all vote counts, total, super and pledged, are all presumptive until the actual vote takes place.

If you want to ignore the total count and look only at the pledged count, that's fine -- that's why I put both counts in there.

[restorefreedom]

16. the pledged delegates vote with their state

and the supers usually go with the popular winner. the totals suggest hillary has more support than she is likely to have at the convention.

its a way to make it appear she is ahead right now when she most certainly is not.

no worries, though. i am confident that by 2020 supers will be gone completely.

[Chichiri]

17. The only way we can know in advance what a superdelegate might do...

...is by looking at what they have told us.

[restorefreedom]

19. true, but since they always switch to the popular vote getter, some have found it confusing

but at least you have it broken down into categories, some in msm are just listing totals with supers which is very misleading

[Chichiri]

21. Only once was it close enough for superdelegates to make a difference.

One incident is too small a sample size. But I don't think we have to worry. I think either Hillary will win by a landslide, or will suffer some personal or political catastrophe and Bernie will be the only one standing. Either way, it won't be close.

[Lucinda]

15. Thank you!

[Chichiri]

18. You betcha. nt