Hillary is forecast to win yuuge in South Carolina

[cali]

but I'm predicting she won't beat him by the margin he beat her in New Hampshire. And if he gets within 10 points, I'll be happy.



Democratic presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders has cut into rival Hillary Clinton's lead ahead of the South Carolina primary, according to a new poll.

The CBS News “Battleground Tracker” poll released Sunday shows Sanders trailing Clinton by 19 points. It comes on the heels of other polls that have him trailing the former secretary of State by up to 38 points in the Palmetto State.

Sanders trailed Clinton in the CBS News poll one month ago by 22 points.

The poll reveals that Sanders struggles with recognition in South Carolina, where only 44 percent of respondents agreed that they know him “very well,” compared to 70 percent who said the same of Clinton.


<snip>
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/269443-sanders-narrows-the-gap-in-south-carolina

[INdemo]

1. I predict a tie or Sanders wins by 2%

and that is still a win for Hillary the way networks calculate .....

Was this a push poll? we dont know

"The CBS News poll, which surveyed 1,315 registered voters online from Feb. 10 – 12, has a margin of error of 8.7 percent".

We have to get by Nevada first and if Sanders wins there the momentum gained wiil be huge going into SC.

[yourpaljoey]

2. We shall see how many people wake up between now and then

There is a stirring in the forest... and the footfalls, once singular,
now come from every direction, and at an ever-rising pace.

[MisterP]

3. from today

[Matariki]

4. If he's within single digits, let's just call it a win for Sanders

[TwilightGardener]

5. I used to live in SC. That's just going to be a tough crowd for him, race and religion aside--

Last edited Sun Feb 14, 2016, 04:08 PM - Edit history (1)

culturally, they're not super-fond of Yankees and they love sticking with the familiar. Strom Thurmond, Joe Riley (mayor of Charleston), Lindsay Graham, etc.

[Dawson Leery]

6. 9% MOE.

The ARG poll had a 4% MOE.

Still, I expect Hillary to win the state.
Also, we are working in Nevada too.

[kcjohn1]

7. Look at that poll

They have black voters making up 62% of the electorate. In 08, black voters made up 55% of the electorate. Do you think more black Americans will come out to vote for Clinton than Obama??

If you assume 50/50 white/black electorate, the race is closer at 44/56 even without Bernie making up any ground in terms of black voters.

[mgmaggiemg]

8. I predict a lot of support for both of them

because of the ame church massacre (which also included clementa pickney democrat) and the republicans staying up all night to vote for the confederate flag....and then divine intervention...Scalia dies right before the first republican debate ...which turns out to be a disaster....I think Bernie and HrC will both do well and the republicans will do poorly

[HooptieWagon]

9. I had considered posting that CBS poll until I noticed the MOE.

It's huge. I'm still thinking Clinton wins, but by much closer than imagined, probably single digits.
There are reports the Clinton campaign has mostly retreated their forces. I don't know what this means, other than campaign is saving $ realizing now it will be an extended battle. It could be Vlinton is well ahead and they're willing to let Sanders close the gap, or that Sanders has already closed the gap and the state is a lost cause for Vlinton. Either scenario is possible.