3 hrs ago: CBS/YouGov poll So Carolina Hillary 59% (-1) Bernie 40% (+2)

[AtomicKitten]

Last edited Sun Feb 14, 2016, 07:10 PM - Edit history (3)

On edit: In the same poll, 100% of 18-29 year-olds think Bernie is honest and trustworthy.
Page 66: http://www.scribd.com/doc/299246340/CBS-News-Battleground-Tracker-South-Carolina-February-2016




http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/2/14/1485047/-CBS-Yougov-Poll-Clinton-59-Sanders-40-in-South-Carolina

CANDIDATE / WHITES / AFRICAN AMERICANS

SANDERS 63% (+3%) 26% (+4%)

CLINTON 36% (-2%) 73% (+3%)

Sanders' gains are a bit bigger when you break it down by race because CBS/Yougov has a larger African American sample in this poll than the last one. In the last poll, they had African Americans as 57% of the sample. In this one, they have African Americans all the way at 62% of the sample. In 2008, African Americans made up about 55% of South Carolina Democratic primary voters, according to exit polls.

The Poll finds that many African Americans in South Carolina still don't know very much about Bernie Sanders, so with further campaigning there is potential for Sanders to make further gains among African Americans. While 70% of whites "feel you know Bernie Sanders and what he stands for," only 28% of African Americans say that they "feel you know Bernie Sanders and what he stands for.”

Yougov was quite accurate in New Hampshire and Iowa. In New Hampshire, the last Yougov poll had Sanders ahead 58-35, and in Iowa, they had Sanders ahead 47-46

[tokenlib]

1. The more they get to know Bernie..we will gain..

As long as we don't let the Clinton people define him.

[PonyUp]

2. Clinton's people have so many years of experience telling lies. nt

[Hortensis]

29. Nonsense. Hillary started alone in the race because the Right

started "running" her for 2016 in 2007, hoping that people would be tired of her by now. Remember all those years when a week didn't go by without the news talking about Hillary, her multudinous crimes, and her run for presidency in 2016?

Their tactic failed, though, and her support coming into 2015 was tremendous. BUT, Bernie coming on stage offered voters a new option to consider. Of course, in such a varied party some people are going to like the alternative he offers.

Where you are setting yourself up for severe disappointment is in not realizing that this does not mean Hillary's very real support is NOT collapsing. It's just reaching an appropriate level for a frontrunner in a two-person race.

BTW, see how it is possible to talk about this without badmouthing the "opponent"?

[kcjohn1]

3. What is Clinton problem with White voters?

And what is her plan to win them over? It's amazing Sanders detractors are saying he can't win without doing better with POC, but so far its looking like he is winning whites by 30+ in NH/SC. If that trend holds, Sanders wins this easily.

[thereismore]

4. Really tho, Clinton has a white problem. I haven't seen anyone be troubled by that.

How should Clinton talk to white people? What is she going to do to fix the gap?

[bigdarryl]

14. If I remember correctly she won most of the white.vote against Obama

And he still won the.delegate count.

[thereismore]

15. I am not sure I follow. She is not winning the majority of the white vote now. nt

[Dawson Leery]

5. 9% MOE.

Still a sizable lead though.

[kcjohn1]

6. I don't doubt she is overwhelming favorate

But even this poll should be warning sign for her.

They have black voters making up 62% of the electorate. In 08, black voters made up 55% of the electorate. Do you think more black Americans will come out to vote for Clinton than Obama??

If you assume 50/50 white/black electorate, the race is closer at 44/56 even without Bernie making up any ground in terms of black voters.

[thereismore]

9. That's what I think too. nt

[speaktruthtopower]

23. It looks like..

they massaged the numbers to stem Bernie's momentum.

[riversedge]

41. 2016 South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary - Clinton 65%, Sanders 27% (ARG 2/12-2/13)

Didthey massage this poll also?



2016 South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary - Clinton 65%, Sanders 27% (ARG 2/12-2/13)

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/arg-23748

[Nanjeanne]

7. She is definitely the overwhelming favorite

But I think Sanders will do well in Nevada and that might help him gain in SC.

We shall see.

[AtomicKitten]

13. Last poll I've seen in Nevada has it 45/45.

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/02/12/bernie-sanders-surge-moves-west-nevada-caucus-tied-45.html

Polling in Nevada is notoriously spotty and sparse, but I think we can safely assume he's got a shot at the title.

[DCBob]

8. So virtually no change from their previous poll.

Means Bernie is still not connecting with folks there and he is running out of time.

[AtomicKitten]

10. 2 weeks (13 days to be exact) is a lifetime in politics.

I expect him to lose So. Carolina, but 2 weeks is plenty of time to mitigate the damage.

[DCBob]

11. True.

We shall see but I think many/most have already made of their minds.

[Vattel]

25. Why do you think that? Only 28% of polled blacks said that they knew what he stood for.

It seems that he has a lot of room to gain on Hillary through greater familiarity with him.

[DCBob]

27. Perhaps..

However, I believe most are happy with Hillary and aren't really looking for an alternative.

[workinclasszero]

12. This is from huffpost pollster..updated 4 hours ago.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-south-carolina-presidential-democratic-primary

[cherokeeprogressive]

16. I have Family and Friends in SC and NONE of them has ever been polled.

What's more, none of them I've interacted with on Facebook, email, or Instagram knows anyone who's been polled.

Don't write any checks with Hillary's poll numbers... it might bounce.

[MrMickeysMom]

17. This sounds more like the real story, AK...

Thanks.

K&R

[AtomicKitten]

21. he's grinding it out, moving the dial with hard work and more exposure

I don't expect him to win So. Carolina but in 13 days he can narrow the gap. Fortunately Democrats allocate delegates proportionally in states rather than winner-take-all, so he can pick up some delegates there.

[DemocraticSocialist8]

18. This Poll is Much better for Sanders than the +38 ARG poll from the other day

However looking at the last YouGov poll where Clinton had a +22 advantage in SC...+19 isn't that much of a shift post Iowa and NH. It should be a huge cause for concern if she's losing the White vote by such huge margins too. All in all, I think Sanders losses SC. His only hope is that these polls are drastically under-estimating youth turnout and he outperforms the polls.

[Kalidurga]

19. Well this is interesting.

I think that Hillary will still win. But, maybe not by as much as I think. Because polls had Bernie down 5 pts in Iowa and we know how that turned out and had him winning by just 10% in New Hampshire. And here we have a higher percent of a demographic being polled than is likely to show up at the polls, plus that 5% or so the pollsters have been off so far.

[AtomicKitten]

37. I don't expect him to win but he can pick up some delegates.

[Kalidurga]

38. Yep

I am hopeful now that it might be a few more than I expected. I don't have my hopes up too much. I doubt there is going to be a shocking difference between poll results and what actually happens. Still it's the start of an interesting trend that Bernie has done better than expected twice.

[EndElectoral]

20. Don't expect Bernie to win SC or Dems to win SC in GE. More attention should go to Nevada.

[AtomicKitten]

22. Agreed.

The latest Nevada poll I can find has it at 45/45.
http://www.politicususa.com/2016/02/12/bernie-sanders-surge-moves-west-nevada-caucus-tied-45.html

[Arazi]

24. Great trendlines! If he can bring his AA support to 40% in SC, I'll be thrilled

He won't win but if he can just keep narrowing that gap it harbingers great things in NV

[Jarqui]

26. Two months ago +48 Clinton

One month ago +40 Clinton
Today ............ + 31 Clinton (poll of polls), +19 this poll

He's cut between 17 to 29 pts off in two months.

He has 13 days left. Really tough to make up that much in 13 days but it's not absolutely impossible.

It's still important to whittle her down to get closer to splitting delegates

[AtomicKitten]

28. In the same poll: 100% of 18-29 year-olds think Bernie is honest and trustworthy!!

adding to OP

[Uncle Joe]

30. That's truly impressive!

Thanks for the thread, AtomicKitten.

[AtomicKitten]

31. It's unprecedented.

Did you see the exit polling from New Hampshire? He OWNS the independent vote and the under-30 vote.

His rise has been meteoric and accomplished with hard work and determination after the DNC and MSM barely acknowledged him for months. Jaw-dropping impressive!

[Uncle Joe]

32. You said it better than I did.

[Le Taz Hot]

33. And to think, a few weeks ago, he was 60 points behind.

[AtomicKitten]

35. That is the real stunner. He's closing the gap at a rapid pace.

[Nanjeanne]

34. Interesting statistic on Trustworthiness

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[firebrand80]

36. Wait, Bernie supporters are happy with this poll?

I don't see how 20 points down is a good thing

[Kalidurga]

39. Yes we are happy

we aren't the unicorn chasers that we are made out to be.

[vercetti2021]

40. And

A Nevada win will push him closer. Be great if he can pull an upset in SC.