Democratic Delegate Scorecard

[Stuckinthebush]

From The Cook Political Report
http://cookpolitical.com/story/9258

A useful tool for both camps to use during the primary season:

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[Lucinda]

1. :)

Good to have in GDP!

[Stuckinthebush]

4. Hope you don't mind :)

You provided a very valuable resource, Lucinda!

[Uponthegears]

2. Keep pushing

the inevitability meme. It's all Hillary has.

Here's the bottom line, if Hillary does not have a majority of elected delegates by the time of the convention, and uses super delegates to change the outcome (f/k/a the smoke-filled room), she will destroy the Democratic Party and we will end up with a Republican in the White House.

[Stuckinthebush]

3. Who is pushing anything?

I present data. You decide.

[Uponthegears]

5. We present, you decide

Last edited Sun Feb 14, 2016, 06:40 PM - Edit history (1)

Where have I heard that one before?

[Stuckinthebush]

6. Show the bias

I'm open to critique of the Cook Report. They are rather neutral and seem to be simply showing mathematical realities.

[Uponthegears]

7. Explain the relevance

of super delegate totals?

[DCBob]

8. The relevance is if its close the super delegates could determine the winner.

[Uponthegears]

11. Well thank you

Bob.

So the OP really was a message to potential Bernie supporters that they might as well stay home because Hillary will resort to smoke-filled room/Tammany Hall anti-democratic "politics" to secure (notice I did not say "win&quot the nomination even if the people are against her?

THAT is what the OP wanted people to "decide."

Thank you for that ounce of honesty.

[DCBob]

17. Not at all.

What do you think should happen if the vote is close but neither candidate has the majority needed to win.

[Stuckinthebush]

18. You may want to take a time out

The primary race has messed you up a bit.

Every OP is not some veiled means of decreasing or increasing support. To think that a post would keep people from voting is very off.

Take a break.

[Iggy Knorr]

28. Fake delegate totals, deflection & smears

that's all you Hillary Supporters got.

[Stuckinthebush]

33. Seriously

Take a time out

We've all had to do it time and again. You are losing sight of who the real enemy is. It's not our candidates or our party

[Stuckinthebush]

42. Liar, is it

You are way off. It's sad

I hope you find your way back to reason and calm. Best of luck to you.

[Iggy Knorr]

44. Take your fake compassion for me

and spend it thinking of how much the country will be so much better with Hillary in charge. Make it your meditation. Om, All is Hillary, All Praise Her Superdelegates!

[Stuckinthebush]

45. I don't think you'll be around long

Best to you

[Iggy Knorr]

46. And Best To You

And all the other fake emotions you can muster.

[Stuckinthebush]

47. Here's what you aren't getting

This is a blip. This ends. If you really care about Democratic ideas then you will want to be here for the long haul. You can't be here with that attitude for long.

[Uponthegears]

34. Gutless

Did you seriously just call me "unhinged" while hiding over in the Hillary group? I'll tell you what cowboy, IF Hillary ends up with fewer elected delegates by the time of the convention and changes the outcome with super delegates she will end the Democratic Party. There is one number that matters and that is the number of elected delegates. Cook can do all the calculations it wants, but unless Hillary has more elected delegates when she walks in the convention door nothing else matters.

[Stuckinthebush]

37. I'm right here

And you are acting unhinged.

I know not what will happen not do you. But to treat data and speculation as a fight is rather unhinged.

Take a break

[Uponthegears]

40. Snore

I guess I could link to your "it's all over" and "super delegates are there to stop popular candidates who dont meet the criteria from the party bosses" posts just to show where you're coming from, but that would seem like piling on.

Have fun in the Hillary group, we'll count the delegates when they come in and then we'll see if the DLC/Third Way has the guts to steal the nomination IF it doesn't work out their way.

See ya.

[Stuckinthebush]

43. Oh, I do believe it's over

No link necessary. I do believe he's done before he started.

But this OP stands on its on. We aren't alwyas fighting when we post in GD-P.

[leftofcool]

51. Nope, not true.

Firstm she won't end up with fewer delegates and these are the Party rules. Deal with it.

[MoonRiver]

53. So you are now in charge of the process for choosing our nominee?

Who knew?

[leftofcool]

54. The Democratic Party is in charge. Is this your first election?

[Uponthegears]

55. I noticed you

didn't say "Democratic voters."

Order more cigars. The smoke-filled rooms are firing up already.

[restorefreedom]

12. never happen. nt

[Rocky the Leprechaun]

25. Right now, they are irrelevant, and they will continue to be irrelevant in the Convention

when Bernie secures his nomination by winning the pledged delegates.

The superdelegates will not override the will of the voters if they want to stay elected.

The supers will go to Bernie and they should begin right now.

Nevada is Bernie's and so is South Carolina by a squeaker. Then the Super Tuesday firewall will all go to Bernie. No states will give the win to Clinton, but will continue to rapidly lose the magic number needed to secure the nomination.

She will never get it - EVER.

[DCBob]

49. Its not a matter of overriding anything.

The situation I am talking about is one where its close and neither candidate has enough to secure the nomination. The superdelegates would then decide who the winner is. What wrong with that?

[NurseJackie]

9. Things aren't looking good for Bernie! You know...

Last edited Mon Feb 15, 2016, 10:46 AM - Edit history (1)

... I don't think he's going to be the nominee.

[oasis]

16. But hats off to the guy for his incredible journey.

[Go Vols]

10. Election 2016 — Democratic Delegate Count

Sanders 36

Clinton 32

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/democratic_delegate_count.html

[restorefreedom]

13. how are the targets calculated? were they released by the campaigns for each state? nt

[Stuckinthebush]

19. No, the Cook Report folks calculated them

Based on assumptions surrounding demographics of states. They discuss it at the link. It's interesting.

[restorefreedom]

22. ok, thanks! nt

[jfern]

14. Total garbage

Bernie can afford to do worse in a lot of those states, and then win California.

[Stuckinthebush]

20. Total?

Ok. Well, there you have it.

[joshcryer]

15. Clinton loses if she doesn't get all of the voter delegates.

The spread in 2008 was only several hundred, super delegates could have swayed it the other way if they wanted to.

[Stuckinthebush]

21. True

She can lose if she loses a majority of states by 2.5 to 5%. Very true.

The targets shown give what she needs in a state. Some she needs more some less. Of course this changes after every voting day.

It's a good tool to revisit.

[joshcryer]

26. This is a terrible strategy for Clinton.

She cannot rely on a single super delegate.

[Rocky the Leprechaun]

23. Erase that shit. Super delegates means squat at this time.

Here's the scorecard:

Bernie: Iowa; 21 NH: 15
Clinton: Iowa: 23, NH: 9

Total delegates: Bernie 36, Clinton: 31

Bernie is leading in pledged delegates at this time.

You want to confuse people, go confuse the Republicans.

[Stuckinthebush]

24. So Cook is wrong?

That's got to suck being a major political reporting outlet.

You might want to let them know how the superdelagates are meaningless.

[Rocky the Leprechaun]

29. s

They want to be pro-Clinton, sure - let's abuse the superdelegate system.

Let's be clear: Bernie is leading on the pledged delegates at this time. He will continue to gain more pledged delegates, while Clinton starts losing her numbers.

She's both morally and cash-wise broke for her campaign - and she will not even finish this contest without abusing Citizens United and abuse FEC in order to get her power.

[Stuckinthebush]

31. You've got it figured out

Good thing we get to test that hypothesis very soon

[leftofcool]

52. Actually, only one candidate has abused FEC and it isn't Hillary

[berniepdx420]

27. let's discuss the so so democratic Super Delegates... lmfao

[Stuckinthebush]

30. Ok

Let's

[berniepdx420]

32. Do you support the Super Delegates across the board...what do you think will happen with the Super

Delegates in NH who pledged their support of Hillary before she lost by 21% of the actual vote... think they will stick with her..??? and if they do would you support that ???

[Stuckinthebush]

35. I do

My candidates have been burned by it in the past, but it's the system. The purpose being that party leaders get more input into nominees. I'm ok with that.

As for NH, I do think that her supers will remain pledged. No reason to unpledge.

[berniepdx420]

36. Wow.. you support the super delegates even though your candidates have been burned by it in the past

examples please ? Why do you support the Party leaders (establishment) should have more input than the voters..???

[Stuckinthebush]

38. Because it's thir party

I choose to be a member. I have every right to not be a member.

In many states there are open primaries which can and have resulted in crossover for purposes of chaos. The super delegates level that field.

[kydo]

41. Must suck to be Delaware

voting last all by yourself. And I sat on the pity pot for 3 days after ScreamingMeeme reminded us that generation X'ers are getting screwed. No one is pandering us! Boomers, boy everyone pandered them for their votes. Greatest Generation, yeppers, pandered for votes. Now Millenniums, they get pandered. But Delaware, I feel your pain.

[oasis]

48. K and R

[DesertRat]

50. Thank you for this