Statewide opinion polling for the Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2016

[Alfresco]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statewide_opinion_polling_for_the_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016



Key: GREEN - Hillary Clinton 27 states + 4 shared

BLUE - Bernie Sanders 4 states + 4 shared

GREY - No polling data in last six months 15 states & D.C.

[hoosierlib]

1. Shocker...the well-known establishment candidate leads...

Until she doesn't...

[RBInMaine]

4. Then why did Bernie JOIN the "Establishment" party????? Establishment Establishment bla bla bla...

[hoosierlib]

6. Because he knows a third party run is not an option...

And he has caucused with the Democratic Party for years...

And HRC is the party establishment's candidate...

[RBInMaine]

12. Why? If his ideas are so great and he is forming a revolution, why need an "establishment" party????

[hoosierlib]

15. Seriously? Only Democrats or Republicans win national elections...

And if you want to govern, you need a political party. Its pretty self-explanatory...

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

2. So, according to the graphic you're presenting us...

Iowa is solidly Hillary, not shared?

Speaks to the quality of the data.

[thomservo]

8. and Bernie likely won the popular vote in Iowa...

http://justicegazette.org/like-gore-in-florida-sanders-won-popular-vote-in-iowa.html

[Alfresco]

9. She was officially declared the winner.

[Erich Bloodaxe BSN]

13. So if 0.2% difference has no meaning, what is the point of even having 'shared states'

on that map? Are shared states EXACTLY 50%, not even 0.2% different?

[Green Texan]

5. I doubt Hillary still has that many supporters in Texas

There are a lot of voters supporting Bernie in Texas now. I don't think we can rely on polls conducted over a month ago, a lot has changed since then.

[Skwmom]

7. Wikipedia is a joke. They tried to hide the fact that Clinton signed NAFTA into law. n/t

[HooptieWagon]

14. Let me talk Florida for a moment.

Our primary is a month away. It is closed, for registered Democrats only, and the registration deadline is tomorrow. Overall, this helps Clinton.
The state party is a DLC machine; if there is anything they can do to help out Clinton, they will.
Voters...there is a sizeable number of liberal/progressives here, primarily around the college cities and towns. Many have left the Democratic Party in disgust, however. IDK how many have re registered as Dems for this primary...I do personally know a few. We're outnumbered a bit by the Third Way voters. There has been no campaign activity here by Sanders team. The organizing is being done by PDA...they've been hosting small rallies, collecting donations, and signing up quite a few volunteers...laying the groundwork. When the campaign rolls into the state this will all be turned over to them. There are many small groups of Sanders activists doing banner waving, light brigades, etc...don't see anything close to the enthusiasm on the Clinton side.
Polling...hasn't been much good polling. Polling last year showed Clinton about 60%, and Sanders, O'Malley, and Biden sharing the rest in changing numbers. The most recent poll, late Jan, shows Clinton at 43%, and Sanders at 29%... Her slipping a lot,, and him climbing
a bit. No other candidates listed, but a great number of undecideds, 31%. Caution...that polling group didn't do any earlier polls to compare to, and I have no idea if they're reliable. I do think the general tone is accurate...that the Clinton support is weak and may be swayed. But in the end I think the state votes Clinton. Sanders will pick up some delegates though.