Hillary is CRUSHING IT in South Carolina poll

[upaloopa]

Clinton 65
Sanders 27

Blks: Clinton 74-19;
Women, Clinton 67-23;
Men, Clinton 61-32;

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres2016/primary/dem/scdem.html

[bravenak]

1. I heard she was losing and running scared

[Squinch]

9. Yeah. Cause, you know, she does that all the time. Like at that 12 hour hearing where she

made a panel of men who hate her look ridiculous.

She's such a wuss.

[bravenak]

13. Well, that has only been the last forty years she's be tough like that.

It's will end soon and she will be CRUSHED

[Squinch]

14. And her supporters will weep copious tears.

Because the youth will rise up. And I believe that because the youth vote ALWAYS makes the difference.

And all we have to do to make that happen is spout Republican talking points for a while. Easy peasy!

[bravenak]

16. Oh yes. The youth will outvote the rest of us

I'm planning on being soylent green. Over 30 you know? Tick tock!

[Squinch]

22. I'm 54, so I'll probably just be a condiment for the soylent green.

Soylent green is peeeeeeeeple!

Soylent salsa is old peeeeeeeeple!

[bravenak]

26. Oh oh oh!!!

This shit is real shit tho. They really want us old fucks to stfu..
Too bad cause my boring self and boring vote counts just as much, poor dears. Their super forceful booming young strong vote counts just the same as mine.

[Squinch]

33. They never show up. So far in both primaries, they haven't shown up.

What people always hope young people will do, old ladies actually do. They vote in greater percentages. They are primarily voting for Hillary.

Cue someone saying that we are doing that because of our Stockholm vaginas. {Skal, baby!}

[bravenak]

35. My vagina totally makes my game plans

I know that I missed two cycles when I was young. One because I was moving and missed the deadline, the other because I moved BACK and missed the deadline for registering. I wated to go to the DMV. But after that, Was early as hell for the next cycle. Obama won. Now I just go on the way to take my daughter to school, it's a block away. Still the youngest person there usually. That upsets me. I'm pretty old for that.

[Squinch]

44. I'm always horrified in the off year elections. I asked this year what the turnout was in

my district. At 4 in the afternoon it was 5%.

[bravenak]

53. It was quiet here too.

It makes me sad.

[Squinch]

54. Me too.

[Lucinda]

98. I'd rather be salsa than just green goo!

[Squinch]

99. You and me, Lucinda! We complete the meal!

[NurseJackie]

76. Those messages were posted from a VERY remote location ....

[leftofcool]

2. But we heard she only had 14 staffers there.

[roguevalley]

62. she's also low balling SC and NEvada.

[Dawson Leery]

3. Bernie supporters will now demonstrate their double standards.

ARG showed Bernie clearly winning NH. The same Poll shows Hillary crushing him in SC.

[Squinch]

24. Well NOW it's skewed. What do the internet polls say?

Sometimes it's funny!

[JRLeft]

4. As long as we win the White house and the Senate I'm good.

[bravenak]

19. Hell yes. And replace SCALIA.

Thomas can take his ass home too, what the fuck is he there for anyway. To embarass us as a race? Yes. That is his place there, fuck him.

[JRLeft]

37. We need someone to replace Scalia and 3 more justices.

[bravenak]

38. Yep. We need younger ones on our side

We gotta win november

[JRLeft]

40. Then we can overturn all of the voter suppression laws.

Racial injustices can be litigated in the high court.

[bravenak]

41. Thats pretty much the only way

Long time since Dred Scott

[JRLeft]

43. 1st up citizens united

[bravenak]

48. Fuck that it dont matter

If we wanted money out for real we'd actually pay some attention
That's a catch all issue. Sure it would be nice but we just need a supreme court for that and a bunch of lawyers and some patience, we got one. The court is even now soon to be leaned our way.
Get the whitehouse and a dem prez will back us in putting in somebody MODERATELY left. Thats all we can get and long battle wound dems more. We aint durty enough to beat republicans at long matches. They have endurance because they are fucking nasty. We gotta do quick strikes and run before the get us with their tails.

And we need to all vote in local elections and look at local,judges. They don't always list the party but those muthafukers do some damage. Get those repubs off the school board water board health board pta science comittee, thats the only way. Gotta treat them like roaches and eradicate their nests

[JRLeft]

50. Citizens united impacts local elections too, it actually has an bigger

effect.

[bravenak]

52. Courts.

We can get a justice now. Time to move on a case. Scalia is fucking good and DEAD. He's the ringleader.

[JRLeft]

55. Thomas lost his brain, what will he do now?

[bravenak]

56. My oh my whatever shall he do?

Hold a silent protest? For the rest of his time on the bench?

[bettyellen]

112. YES YES and YES!!!

[bravenak]

114. .

[fun n serious]

5. k&R nt

[uponit7771]

6. Sanders has 19% with blacks... what the hell!? That's GOP territory... Maybe West wasn't the

... best choice of a surrogate

[JustABozoOnThisBus]

85. That's a large and strange variation based on a demographic. I wonder why. nt

[bigdarryl]

7. Let's see if this poll matches up with PPP poll that's going.

To be released on Tuesday.

[morningfog]

8. If she wins by that margin, it would be crushing.

[stopbush]

49. Bernie absolutely needs to win NV or he's toast.

The primaries after NV all favor Hillary. If Bernie loses NV then gets crushed in SC, he'll be one win out of 4 and heading into Super Tuesday where Hillary's numbers are daunting. The media will rightly point to NH as an outlier and harp on the fact that Bernie can't win outside of lily white person country.

[Bonobo]

10. The Deep South is conservative.

I hope Bernie can close it to within 20. That would be a victory.

[DCBob]

73. Hillary winning by 20 or more points will not help Bernie.

I think if he closes within 10-15 then he would have an argument he's gaining significantly in the south.

[Bonobo]

74. It's all about expectations.

The Clintons are souther politicians.

NY Jews not terribly popular in the south. I know, I've felt it.

2- point spread would be meaningful indeed.

[redwitch]

94. CBS poll says 59-40

Add independents and who knows. I think she will probably win SC but the margins may be by less than expected.

[DCBob]

96. That indicates he's made a bit of progress.

We shall see soon but I think she wins big.

[AtomicKitten]

11. She was once 'crushing it' in New Hampshire.

[kstewart33]

18. Very true, but this poll is 7 days before the primary, not a few weeks. nt

[Funtatlaguy]

25. Actually its 14 days until SCarolina

And 7 days to Nevada.
If these numbers hold, though, and Hillary wins Carolina by 30 or more, it's over for Bernie.

[kstewart33]

61. Thanks for the correction! nt

[Logical]

64. LOL, 7??? Nt

[Nonhlanhla]

12. Much as I like those numbers

I don't trust this poll too much. I do think she'll carry SC handily, but I'm pretty sure the race will tighten, and that other, more trustworthy, pollsters, might show a tighter race. We'll see.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

15. This must be part of the nostalgia craze.

Campaigning with poll results is reminiscent of last fall.

[upaloopa]

20. Bernie will lose SC and with nostalgia I will look back on it.

[Admiral Loinpresser]

21. Hope you're wrong. ;-) n/t

[upaloopa]

36. Who ever is our nominee I hope we can work together to elect him or her.

[Fawke Em]

59. Nope.

[pandr32]

17. I thought she was getting desperate and has been losing The African American vote!

Good thing I do not place any value on the main pages of DU posts

[Lucinda]

110. Wise. They can be interesting, but the spin can make ya dizzy!

[Lucinda]

23. I'm not big on polls...but these are great numbers!

It looks like they may have oversampled women, but her numbers with men are just as high, so it evens out.

[Iliyah]

29. Ok, I'm not big on polls too.

[bowens43]

27. said, so many deluded people.....she's quite the accomplished liar

[leftofcool]

30. Yes, we know, all of us including POC have Stockholm Syndrome.

[Squinch]

42. ESPECIALLY people of color. Because, you know, they aren't well informed enough to have

heard of Bernie. It's all about the name recognition. They don't know enough to vote for him.

Someday they will finally hear the good news of Bernie. And then they will all join the revolution.

[mcar]

28. K&R

[EndElectoral]

31. A state the Democratic Party has no chance of winning in the GE.

[oasis]

47. So delegate votes from the S.C. Democratic primary won't count

at the Democratic National Convention to elect our nominee? That's not fair.

[Samantha]

32. I would ignore polling by The American Research Group, if I were you

Several polling firms got notably poor results, on the other hand. For the second consecutive election — the same was true in 2010 — Rasmussen Reports polls had a statistical bias toward Republicans, overestimating Mr. Romney’s performance by about four percentage points, on average. Polls by American Research Group and Mason-Dixon also largely missed the mark. Mason-Dixon might be given a pass since it has a decent track record over the longer term, while American Research Group has long been unreliable. (emphasis added)

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/which-polls-fared-best-and-worst-in-the-2012-presidential-race/?_r=0

Sam

[DrBulldog]

34. i wouldn't worry about it. It really won't matter.

Bill Mahr said it best: "This is the dumb part of America."

[dana_b]

45. wow - that's so rude

It's scary how much I have in common with Maher as far as political views are concerned yet I think he is such an ass at times.

edit - pompous ass - that's better

[LuvLoogie]

86. A quote from the dumb part of Bill Maher

[SoLeftIAmRight]

39. State Education Ranking Shows Vermont #1, South Carolina Last

think about it

Also it is a red state - who cares - $hillary supporters

[mwrguy]

46. Beat like a drum

[Fawke Em]

60. I went to the Middle East and DID NOT cover my head.

Boo. Yah.

[TwilightGardener]

51. I'd bet an unfamiliar democratic-socialist Jewish guy from Vermont is going to lose SC.

I know, crazy, right? If I were on his team, I'd advise him not to put too many resources in the south, but divert resources to northern/western/friendlier states, if he isn't getting movement in numbers by next week.

[DCBob]

69. Give up the entire south??

Then Bernie has zero chance to win.

[Jarqui]

57. Nothing terribly wrong with the demographics in that poll

They don't give enough detail but they were pretty good percentages.

[Fawke Em]

58. I'm not worried.

(Please start researching when I say that)

[bigtree]

63. no way!

...Microsoft Network News says Hillary's conceded the state and Bernie's inevitable there.

[OnlinePoker]

65. This is ARG

They had Sanders at +9 in New Hampshire on the day of the election, so who knows what the real number is.

[DCBob]

67. Do you really expect any pollster to be precisely correct?

Polling is of course not an exact science and most pollsters were off in NH. NH is an odd state with crossover voting and with alot of independents. I think they are probably pretty happy with their prediction in NH.

SC is more predictable.. I suspect they are close to reality unless something big happens in the next few days.

[Bucky]

80. agreed. ARG gives it a 5% margin of error

I expect that to close a few points before the next 2 weeks. Sanders's younger demographic is hard to reach for polling purposes. But still, Clintonians should be happy right now.

[DCBob]

66. I thought Hillary's firewall was being crushed in SC??

[vercetti2021]

68. Huh

k then, polls are mostly bs anyway.

[Jester Messiah]

70. Where was she the last time this poll was taken?

Bet you a shiny penny she was doing better then.

[DCBob]

72. These numbers reflect pretty much the previous polls in SC

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-4167.html#polls

Bottom line she is crushing Bernie in SC.

[kristopher]

71. That seems at odds with the youth demo support for Bernie.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511229651

[workinclasszero]

75. Bernie hits a brick wall in SC

And then comes super tuesday...

[DCBob]

78. Super Tuesday..

[6chars]

81. since it is basically the primary of the South

does that mean if Hillary wins it, the Midwest and West and Northeast may as well stay home? It might make less of difference in the dynamic of a two-person race than in winnowing down a more crowded field (like on the R side).

[DCBob]

82. It means she will have tremendous momentum going into the states following Super Tuesday...

and the bandwagon effect will likely come into play.

[6chars]

90. I'm not so sure

This is just the south. The white liberals in the northeast, midwest and west coast might write it off as just some other region's primary. We'll know by June.

[DCBob]

92. Unfortunately for Bernie he cant win with just white liberals.

[workinclasszero]

104. The democratic party is diverse just like the country

So glad to be moving away from the small 98% white states into more representative states of America.

Bernie is going to bern up in the south.

[Bucky]

77. It's true. She's totally gonna clobber Bernie, by at least 30 points. Expectations set on HIGH

Breaking the 35% mark will be a moral victory for Sanders.

[DCBob]

79. Bernie will need to close within the teens to claim any sort of marginal victory.

imo.

[Bucky]

83. Oh I was being silly. But you're basically right. 40% is the real mark he has to hit to stay viable

He'll win Nevada, she'll win South Carolina, it'll drag on a bit. I'm supporting Sanders, but he's not quite paralleling Obama's game from '08. Remember, 8 years ago SC was a massive win for Obama, taking a 55% majority in a three-way race. It really threw Clinton off her game. She was only able to regather after Super Tuesday and keep it a tight race till almost the end. She is running a much better ground game this time (but her "air" game is still clunky).

This webforum went nutso bananas with the ugly feuding, far worse than the '04 civil war we had. DU is really lopsided for Bernie this time around the track, but it's not near as ugly as it got in 2008.

[DCBob]

84. You really think Bernie will win NV?

I just dont see it. Has there been any polling recently other than that suspect Republican one?

[Bucky]

87. most recent poll was 45-45

But it's a caucus, like Iowa, so turning out voters is the key to winning. Based on what we've seen in Iowa and New Hampshire, Sanders's team is simply superior at GOTV. If Clinton wins the nomination, which I suspect is the case, she'll only win November if she can pull us Sandernistas into her fold. She needs are ground coverage, she needs our grass roots, and she needs our message. One on one in this media environment, Trump will make mincemeat out of Clinton. Sanders has kept her on the defensive the whole time. Trump, ugly as he plays it, is better at attacking than Sanders. Even if he's not nominated, he's going to spend the whole fall campaign attacking Clinton directly in the ugliest of terms. I have my concerns about her capacity to transcend and overcome it.

[DCBob]

88. That poll is suspect... Republican pollster.

I will wait until the next legit poll comes out. Previous polls had her well ahead there. Well shall see.

[Bucky]

89. Actually there were only 2 polls, the one in November was long before Bernie surged

and do you have any reason to doubt the pollster other than it being a Republican firm?

When I was a pollster we took Republican candidate counts too. We didn't make shit up. I had a friend/rival at a Republican polling company and he polled on Democratic candidates. It's a business and you lose customers if you can't get your numbers right. They have nothing to gain and their jobs to lose by putting out bad information.

[DCBob]

91. There was one end of December that had Hillary up 50-27.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-nevada-democratic-presidential-caucus

I suspect the real number is closer to that.

I trust nothing that has Republican associated with it.

[Bucky]

93. Thanks for the link. That December polls is from Gravis Marketing, they're also a GOP firm

As a polling professional, I'd advise you NOT to trust anything they put out. I remember their name from 2014. They blew it time after time

http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2014/05/21/the_worst_poll_in_america.html

[DCBob]

95. I would recommend we wait until a reputable polling firm releases new polling data.

I suspect the new ones will have her comfortably ahead.

[Bucky]

111. Here's a couple more polls. Like I said before, it's all tied up.

You gotta look at polls. According to the polls, Sanders is by a wide stretch the stronger candidate in the fall.

[DCBob]

115. I have to admit Bernie is doing much much better than I had ever imagined.

However, I still believe Hillary is our best candidate.. hands down.

[Gothmog]

97. Thanks for posting

These are great polling numbers

[TTUBatfan2008]

100. CBS Face The Nation reported

Hillary is up 59-40. Very likely to win but Bernie is making up some ground.

[DCBob]

101. Previous CBS SC poll had similar numbers..

so not actually gaining based on that poll.

[TTUBatfan2008]

103. Thanks!

That would not be a bad result for him.

[DCBob]

105. Yes. If that was the result but..

I suspect they are off a bit based on the other SC Polls.

[TTUBatfan2008]

108. Maybe so

ARG was 13 points lower for Bernie in New Hampshire. So if you apply the same thing to South Carolina, it would be a 25 point lead for Hillary compared to 38 in the poll.

[DCBob]

109. I think every state presents different challenges to polling.

However, I would suspect SC would be "easier" than NH.

[Politicalboi]

102. SC where the best and brightest live

[DCBob]

106. Bashing southerners is so fun for Bernie supporters.

[bettyellen]

113. Oh goodness, is this your first election? Way to win hearts and minds.

[BlueMTexpat]

107. Here's a K and

an R!

I so want this to be and hold true.

[bigtree]

116. k&r