Tonight's Debate is Clinton's One-Question Test: Has She Figured Out What's Wrong with Her Campaign

[Attorney in Texas]

This is a very important test. Failing this test casts further doubt on whether the Clinton campaign has the strength and foundation to win either the primary or general election (and it is definitely not enough to win just one of these two contests).

Clinton must be able to identify the defect is her campaign if she can correct her course, and a course correction is absolutely necessary because even if her super-delegate booster chair can help her squeak by the primary with a broken campaign, she cannot win the general election with a "good enough" campaign.

So what's wrong with the Clinton campaign? Hint: if Clinton cannot answer that question without using the names "Bernie" or "Sanders," then she's in big trouble.

Also, if she's cannot admit she has a problem, then the problem has grown beyond her ability to manage it, which is a fatal condition.

Here are the symptoms of the problem:

The Clinton campaign fumbled Iowa.

A year before the caucus, Clinton had a 54% lead in Iowa, and she had a 12% lead a month before the caucus and a 3% lead on the day of the caucus:



Clinton spent the most on advertising in Iowa's Democratic caucus by $2,000,000, and she had the most field offices and paid staff.

Still, Clinton performed under her polling despite her huge investment.

The Clinton campaign completely blew it in New Hampshire.

A year before the primary, Clinton had a 39% lead in New Hampshire, and she was only behind by 3% six weeks before the primary and was behind by 14% on the day of the primary:



Again, Clinton performed far under her polling when Sanders blew her out by 22%.

Clinton needs to diagnose her campaign's problem, and if she thinks the problem with her campaign is Sanders, she's not going to be able to correct her course. And if Clinton is having problems in the primary, where she has the DNC and the entire Democratic Party establishment pushing her and fighting to tip the scales against Sanders, then she won't have a prayer if she makes it to the general election where the tables will not be tilted in her favor.

[speaktruthtopower]

1. Among other things she needs..

to get into what she did before going to Arkansas with Bill. That she was a rising star before doing that. A few lines about fighting for the rule of law during the Nixon era wouldn't hurt. That she knows what it's like to distrust the establishment.

[Attorney in Texas]

7. Agreed. She also needs to promote her agenda rather than attacking. "Bernie is bad" offers no basis

to erase Clinton's unlikable and untrustworthy numbers.

[TipTok]

9. She is the textbook definition of establishment...

[RobertEarl]

2. They tried limiting debates

That didn't work.
Brought out the fam. Zero
Tried to rewrite herstory. Fail.
Tell every one NO. OMG did that fall flat.

I got nothing. No advice, but to just retire and give all her money to Bernie.

[winter is coming]

3. She's already run for President before.

IMO, she's been intending to run again since 2008, so she's literally had years to analyze her mistakes, test the mood of the country, and construct a new approach. How likely is it that she's accomplished in the past few days what she couldn't manage in several years?

[jberryhill]

4. Here's the problem

I believe the analysis resulted in "Obama did a better job".

What she did WELL, was to establish "inevitability" early on, and use that to discourage other entrants into the race that appeared to have a potential to catch fire.

The problem for her now is that there AREN'T enough other candidates in the race to split the "not Clinton" vote.

It would have been better for her, IMHO for there to have been more candidates in the primary in the first place. Then, the D primaries would probably look a lot more like the GOP primaries are going - with one candidate far above a pack of smaller numbers.

[thesquanderer]

5. Good point... possibly a victim of her success. (n/t)

[Attorney in Texas]

6. I agree. Her belief that she only lost because "Obama did a better job" put the focus on Obama and

failed to analyze what she did wrong. As a result, she is running the same game plan she ran in 2008. She expected a different result because she assumed that her loss was due 100% to Obama and she further assumed that Sanders could not do what Obama did.

This overly simplified failure analysis neglected to account or the weaknesses in Clinton's public perception, the weaknesses in her platform, and the weaknesses in her communication of her platform and campaign themes.

If she had nurtured the field instead of shutting O'Malley, Webb, and Chafee out of the race, she would have looked like a sensible moderate. Instead, she opted for a coronation strategy, which is backfiring horribly.

I expect that she is under the mistaken belief that she's blowing it by not attacking Sanders enough when, in truth, she's focusing TOO MUCH on Sanders and should instead talk about why her plans are a "Goldilocks" option to the left of the xenophobes and bigots running in the Republican primary and to the right of Sanders.

[jberryhill]

13. Agree... I think she might succesfully pivot to an affirmative message

I don't think either candidate is going to do well by attacking the other candidate or by attempting to make "distinctions" that mischaracterize the other candidate.

If she gets the nomination, but in the process turns Bernie into 1980 Ted Kennedy, we will lose the general and it will be disastrous.

[Attorney in Texas]

14. I agree it is not too late to successfully pivot to a message that puts a positive spotlight on her

own platform, but looking at the news today, that does not seem to be her focus.

All I hear from Clinton surrogates is "Sanders this" and "Sanders that" and, if she were wiser, we'd never be hearing Sanders' name uttered by her surrogates, and -- instead -- we'd be hearing "Hillary's proposal to do Z is the bomb because..."

The underdog probably has to offer some contrast with the favorite, but the favorite is better served ignoring the underdog. Clinton is campaigning like she's the underdog, and if she doesn't stop that, she will become the underdog.

[TipTok]

10. She is trusting in her connections and money to scrape across the finish line...

[TheBlackAdder]

15. Yep. That whole Superdelegate tally and DWS / DNC debate thing are coming home to roost.

.


Her hubris is what is doing her in. She wanted to take a commanding lead to show inevidibility and it backfired.


When she would ask Sanders zingers, she sat back with dumb smirks, telegraphing an "I got you now" teenager look.


I think your analysis on this is quite accurate!


.

[closeupready]

8. The problem with her campaign isn't Bernie - it's her - SHE is the problem.

And no, I don't think she's going to figure that out this time, either. I may be wrong, who knows.

[Shandris]

11. Hope she's not booking any Rotary Clubs or Drive Thrus in the near future.

The parallels to Jeb are starting to get scary.

But seriously, it's too late now. "Oh hey, I just figured out what you want to hear!" isn't as evocative as "I've said this for 40 years". Rather, it comes off as "PLEASE FOR F***'S SAKE JUST VOTE FOR ME DAMMIT!" leading into "...p-please?..."

[Arugula Latte]

12. I wonder if she even knows what her campaign is about.

Why is she running? Because she wants to be president. Other than that, I have no idea what she intends other than muddling along in the same old, same old. Oh, but she gets to live in the White House again, so there's that.

Bernie, on the other hand, has a clearly defined purpose and message, with passion behind it, and it shows.

[Attorney in Texas]

16. Her campaign is about her ambition to be the first female president. It seems to end there.

[liberal_at_heart]

17. Has she had enough time to look into her transcripts?

[Attorney in Texas]

18. crickets