Team Clinton tries to lower Nevada expectations with incredible (ie false) claim

[Jarqui]

by Jon Ralston Thu, 02/11/2016 www.ralstonreports.com
https://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/team-clinton-tries-lower-nevada-expectations-incredible-ie-false-claims

After the disaster in snow-white New Hampshire and the near-death experience in colorless Iowa, Team Clinton suddenly was trying to make Nevada sound as if its rainbow of voters did not exist.

“There’s going to be a narrowing in both places (South Carolina and Nevada) — we’re clear-eyed about that,” said Clinton spokesman Brian Fallon told NBC's Chuck Todd, as reported by BuzzFeed's Ruby Cramer. “There’s an important Hispanic element to the Democratic caucus in Nevada. But it’s still a state that is 80 percent white voters. You have a caucus-style format, and he’ll have the momentum coming out of New Hampshire presumably, so there’s a lot of reasons he should do well.”

80 percent white? What?

....
The Democratic caucus population was 35 percent minority in 2008, according to exit polls, and is expected to be as high as 40 percent in 2016, according to local Democratic sources. This is nothing like the 90 percent white caucus participation in Iowa, for instance.
....
One Clinton campaign source explained that some of the campaign's modeling showed an 80 percent turnout in Nevada come Feb. 20. This would be the model constructed after 14 martinis, perhaps.
....
I don't smell a rat. I smell something much more pungent from the Clinton campaign: fear.

There's a better explanation in the full article.

Another deception brought to you by Hillary Clinton ... (seems to be a daily event ..)

I did a little checking on voter registration because it's been fairly hot lately
https://www.nvsos.gov/index.aspx?page=1318
The notable change is that registration of the 18-24 group is up 36% over the last year. It's still 29% below 2008 so they have some work to do but it's encouraging.

[Lucinda]

1. Of course the race will narrow. Anyone who has ever watched an election could tell you that.

and the census supports their numbers

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/32000.html








added census link and removed "n/t"

[madokie]

2. Looks like it might just narrow down to one standing

Senator Bernie Sanders that is

[Lucinda]

3. Eh...depended on more factors than race as far as I am concerned. The west is much different than NE

But the Clinton team is definitely not in error in their numbers

[Motown_Johnny]

9. "definitely not in error in their numbers"

On Rachel's show last night she explained how Nevada is difficult to poll and that pollsters stay away from it because they know it will make them look bad if they try to predict anything there.


Just how is it that the Clinton team can be definite about those numbers when nobody else is? This is the same team that just set a single digit loss in New Hampshire as a win, and lost by more than double that.

Are you sure you are not kidding yourself?

[Lucinda]

10. Polling has nothing to do with the stats on white voters.

The census link above supports the campaign assessment of the rough percentage of white voters in the state.

[Motown_Johnny]

12. But they have extended that to predict caucus turnout.

I don't doubt they hired someone who can quote census numbers correctly. It is their prediction that is in question.

[Lucinda]

16. They are looking at modeling, presumably including

population shifts and voters turnouts over the past election cycles. There doesn't have to be anything nefarious about their projected turnout model.

The article in the OP is incredibly misleading. Not only have they claimed the readily available statistical information on white population is a lie, blown past the fact that Sanders will likely have some momentum as if it's not relevant, but then the author goes on to suggest there is some great fear quaking through the campaign because of the pretty logical assumptions they seem to be making. Seriously crappy "journalism."

[Motown_Johnny]

18. I am not alleging anything nefarious, only incompetence. n/t

[Jarqui]

4. That is not the point of the article

The Clinton campaign had touted how well they were going to do with the Latino community in Nevada and stop Sanders progress there.

The point of the article was Clinton trying to lower expectations with bogus demographics stats. The reporter caught them doing it and reported it.

[Lucinda]

5. THE STATS ARE CORRECT

Read the census link in my post.

[CoffeeCat]

20. Bernie had terrific support from the Latino community in Iowa

I think this little tidbit is widely underreported--or barely reported. However, local Hispanic leaders in Des Moines were overwhelmingly for Bernie. A local Latino-owned coffee shop in downtown Des Moines was turned into a Bernie office, with people canvassing from it. They had a Bernie sign in the front window.

Furthermore, going into the Iowa Caucuses, Hillary only had a 3-point lead with Hispanics against Bernie. They were in a virtual tie.

Only 1,000 Latinos participated in 2012. 12,000 participated this year.

Bernie won 10 of the 15 largest counties in Iowa, and these counties have concentrations of Latino voters. It appears that Latinos may have helped Bernie win those counties and secure his "tie" in the caucuses.

[Jarqui]

15. From your link:

"White alone, not Hispanic or Latino, percent, 2014 51.5%"

C'mon. Throwing around numbers that bury the Latinos when discussing race and voting in the state?

[Lucinda]

17. And you scrolled right past the first number

White alone, percent, 2014 (a) 76.2%

Which is a)
(a) Includes persons reporting only one race.

In order to pick up the percentage of a subset.

[Jarqui]

19. It includes Latinos

It is a deceptive number to pull when they bring up Latinos in the same sentence.

There are only 51% whites who are not Hispanic/Latino in Nevada.

The reporter caught them spinning BS which isn't a surprise. It's a daily event.

[brush]

26. I live in Vegas and worked on both of Obama's campaigns here in '08 and '12

Last year I got a call early on from the Democratic Party network to come back and work as they were gearing up to work for Hillary.

My wife, who had worked side-by-side with me on the Obama campaigns had recently passed so I didn't have the heart to re-up, but my point is that the Clinton campaign has long had the ground game advantage here.

We'll know soon whether the Sanders campaign has made up that advantage.

[Bucky]

24. Lucinda, you're definitely reading the numbers wrong

the 76% who are white happens to include the Hispanics who self-identify as racially white (historically that's about 50% of all Hispanics). But in aggregate, Latinos who self-identify as white for census events still culturally identify as Hispanic for political purposes--I spent 10 years as a research manager in a market research firm that specialized in the Hispanic market.

But even if we take that distorted 76% number, for that fact to have any relevance we'd have to assume that the Democratic Party does not pull in disproportionately more minories and the Republicans don't pull in disproportionately more whites. I think we both know that's not the case.

[Robbins]

6. remember

it doesn't get a lot of attention but bernie is doing better with hispanics than blacks.as well his support among both is growing.

Remember people are ignoring nevada is next.wonder why.

claiming it is 80% white is all about trying to dismiss nevada and say only SC should matter of first 4 states.

There is reason why the nurses union which is spending a lot of time in nevada for bernie has been bashed as super pac.

[Jarqui]

7. I read today that the nurses union has also been active in SC ... nt

[CoffeeCat]

13. Yes, my neighbor participates that that effort

Nurses for Bernie travels around the state in a big, red bus. They did so in Iowa and they garnered incredible media attention.

These nurses know Bernie's healthcare plans inside and out, and they cover a lot of ground--advocating for Bernie's healthcare plan.

They are a huge asset to the campaign and outspoken proponents for Bernie.

I don't think there was a corner of Iowa that they didn't touch. I'm sure they'll do the same in SC!

[SheenaR]

8. I'm not a mind reader

But I don't think she cares about Nevada right now. As a Sanders supporter, I think she needs the following states far more than Nevada. That's from having been on campaigns. I don't know what she is thinking.

[CoffeeCat]

11. And Nevada has same-day registration, the same as Iowa

Nevada caucus goers can register on the same day as their caucus. Just like in Iowa, you can walk right in and register, then participate in the caucus.

There were several polls in Iowa which indicated that Democratic registrations were not up. Many took this as a sign that Bernie would not have the new caucus goers that he needed to win. That was completely wrong!

Many people will register that day. This was the reason that many Iowa caucus sites were deluged and that waiting lines were very long. In my precinct, the lines were out the door a half hour after 7:00, when voting was supposed to begin. It was because of new registrations.

The Iowa Democratic caucuses saw the 2nd highest turnout in our history. Much of that was due to new participants and younger caucus goers.

Hello Nevada!

[Punkingal]

14. I lived in Nevada (Las Vegas) for 9 years, and that 80% white claim is Bullshit.

[whereisjustice]

21. This is a must read. We get more and more clues about how she would govern. It's ugly.

[Bucky]

25. I dunno. She's playing hardball. You kinda need that in a president

I'm not saying she's perfect. I'm not even supporting her for the nomination. I think Bernie's more electable. That said, I think she's showing she's got the chops to do the tough parts of the job once elected. It's only that "once elected" business I'm worrying on.

[whereisjustice]

27. There is a difference between hardball and alienating an entire sector of society...

one which is historically underrepresented and exploited in order to score political points. She's proven she can get ahead by fucking over various components making up the Democratic Party franchise. She hasn't proven she can get ahead by simply doing the right thing.

We need people who can simply do the right thing while conveying to your constituents why you chose the less politically expediant route. That builds trust and that's what real leadership is about.

[jfern]

22. The Hillary campaign can't tell the truth about anything

[WillyT]

23. "I don't smell a rat. I smell something much more pungent from the Clinton campaign: fear."

From OP Article.