2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forum61-39. Suddenly DU doesn't look all that unreflective of the real world.
Last edited Thu Feb 11, 2016, 12:53 AM - Edit history (1)
I have always believed that DU is not quite the bubble that some people have portrayed it as.
To some extent, it is, of course, a select group of people that are politically junkies and it is nearly certain that its number of minorities is relatively low percentage-wise.
But on the whole, I have always felt that it -at the very least- is a meaningful window into the mood of the Democratic electorate.
The results of NH suggest this is true. Something very very significant is happening here and Bernie's popularity on DU from early on is evidence that DU has its finger right there on the pulse.
We are in a very heavily slanted battle against the power-brokers in the Democratic political establishment. They are, like the Republicans, rich, powerful and not terribly committed to rocking their comfy boat. ("What do we want? Incremental change!"
"When do we want it? In due course!" .
But their boat has been rocked. Make no mistake about it. The only thing that can really keep the 99% down is the false belief that they are divided. Naturally there are non-economic issues that are used to maintain that divide -issues that capitilize on racial divides, sexual divides, religious divides. But behind the scenes, there is the massive inequality that destroys, shortens and steals lives. THAT inequality is what Bernie Sanders is striking out against.
We are, once again, becoming a party that stands in opposition to the unfairness of a system that steals all the meat and throws away the gristle to the dogs waiting in fear and desperation under the table for their masters to bestow it upon them.
This is a time of change. The emergence of Trump shows it, the emergence of Sanders shows it. Opposed diametrically to each other, the one thing they have in common is the resounding message of opposition to the politicians who have been playing us all for fools.
merrily
(45,251 posts)JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)merrily
(45,251 posts)Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)Folks here pay a lot more attention to politics than out in the regular world. So we see bad things coming faster, we watch politicians kicking the can down the road time and again, we see the disconnect between what they say when campaigning and what they do in office. We get frustrated sooner, and we know where to target that frustration.
Things had to get bad enough that more people started paying attention, and started paying attention ENOUGH to know where to direct their frustration, rather than continuing to fall for the usual divide and conquer tactics. And, to be completely honest, we still don't know if enough people ARE paying attention, and won't know for sure til November.
Bleacher Creature
(11,257 posts)Ok.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)And of course a Republican is assured to win SC in the GE. As an important bellweather state, South Carolina is way down the list.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)in November- not sure where these silly ideas are coming from!
It will show a part of the picture that is totally missing in NH, and Iowa to a slightly lesser extent.
jeff47
(26,549 posts)ChairmanAgnostic
(28,017 posts)Why does it exist? I thought it started off as a place to remove troops from their wages after WW2. Has that changed?
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)That will be a good test of Clinton's appeal to Latinos.
Bonobo
(29,257 posts)Just as not all White folk are the same as SC White folk.
Think about it.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)Bonobo
(29,257 posts)Care to try again?
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)One will have to wonder why you need to do that though. Is this about your fear of people hating white voters? I did not understand where you came up with that yesterday.
Bonobo
(29,257 posts)I'm quite happy to draw attention to your own words and let anyone draw their own conclusions.
I think you're spitting poison.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)don't like that people notice it, eh? How does this tie into that theory of Clintons people "hating whites"- I would love to hear you expound upon that idea some more here. To me there seems to be a connection.
Bonobo
(29,257 posts)You show a very clear pattern of twisting words.
Since I was NOT born yesterday, I know that to engage with someone prepared to be dishonest in a conversation is ultimately not worth it, both in terms of time spent and in terms of making one's message clear.
So you can continue to try to distort what I say, but I don't think you are very credible at this point.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)was an actual strategy. I would love to understand how that does not dovetail really nicely with this OP about who is important in our party. I think a lot of people would love you to explain!
Bonobo (27,644 posts)
17. Yep! Iowa and NH = "Yawn, they're white".
They are hanging onto a desperate hope that the disparity between white voters and black voters will continue.
But, overall, it is not a smart strategy to keep saying "Fuck White people. They're not important."
Bonobo
(29,257 posts)With anyone that is prepared to actually have an honest dialog that doesn't START from the position of "Oh, you're a racist AND a sexist".
Betty, you are not such a person.
When all these "interested" people ask me, I will be happy to have that conversation when they show that they are ready to listen as well as attack.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)Bonobo
(29,257 posts)developed such a strong prejudgment about who they "think" I am that it would make it impossible to exchange ideas/thoughts.
It is difficult to get ideas across in text, let alone "feelings".
Such an effort becomes impossible if the conversation is so poisoned with distrust and malice to the other person.
Don't you think?
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)it would shock you that others might think you, a person that has already
developed such a strong prejudgment about who you think they are that it would make it impossible to exchange ideas/thoughts ... so poisoned with distrust and malice to the other person that conversation is impossible.
.
Bonobo
(29,257 posts)zeemike
(18,998 posts)Just like this sub thread has been. There can be no conversation like you said.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)Javaman
(62,530 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)which I'm guessing is a good thing.
But, I'm curious ... how was that comment passive-aggressive?
Javaman
(62,530 posts)and your second sentence, "which I'm guessing is a good thing"; in reference to your first sentence, makes the whole statement, also passive aggressive.
it's an easy trap to fall into.
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)still_one
(92,217 posts)Katashi_itto
(10,175 posts)ChiciB1
(15,435 posts)going to be as cohesive for HRC this time around. As you said, this time is DIFFERENT and I'm sure that there are people here from SC who can testify to that. I've already heard of six politicians have switched to Bernie already. AND, I think it was one of the directors or someone high within the head of the DNC in SC who has already switched to Bernie.
HE himself has said all along that it won't be easy and that he needs everyone to help. YOU CAN'T have a REVOLUTION if YOU DON'T have people who really WANT IT!
I WANT IT... let's show our DEMOCRATIC PARTY who has done very little for so many years that WE stand together to FIGHT back! Do we not think the time has come? Isn't it NOW??? When will we have another Bernie who has stood tall and is ready to take that KITCHEN sink for us?? WHEN??
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)Which of them did Obama not win?
I'm seriously asking -- I don't know.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)No primaries held when Carter, Clinton, and Obama were running as incumbents.
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)as if there were multiple times when S.C. got it wrong.
Apparently the only time they did was with Carter.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)And SC voted for the eventual nomination loser in '76, '84, '88, '00, and '04. They got it 'right' in 2 of 7 tries. Now, that might be a better record than Hillary's war votes, but it neither represents the pulse of the party or pulse of the nation, viewed in total.
forest444
(5,902 posts)Older DUers might remember that Senator Ted Kennedy gave President Carter a bit of a run for his money that year, winning 35% of delegates and almost 38% of the votes.
Carter did indeed win South Carolina (which were caucuses back in 1980), and won by 7,035 (63%) to 579 (5%); the remainder were uncommitted.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)As there was a near 100% certainty of them winning the SC Primary and the nomination. Only example I can think of that not happening is a 'what if' in '68. Had LBJ stayed in to the SC Primary, he likely would have lost...but then he wasn't likely to win the nomination either. That's why he bowed out after New Hampshire.
spooky3
(34,457 posts)AlbertCat
(17,505 posts)Of course it is.
Did you think it was fake?
Liberal_Stalwart71
(20,450 posts)I want to see how candidates perform in more diverse states--one's where the electorate is more representative of the Democratic Party, not in lily white states.
Sigh...
AlbertCat
(17,505 posts)And should we ignore all the rest?
Since NH is only representing the NH Dem party, I don't see why you expect more.
LynneSin
(95,337 posts)New Hampshire-Vermont: These states are next door neighbors. So if anything Bernie had a bit of a home-state advantage being the guy next door who has been a part of Vermont decades.
I'm not saying it's a fluke, but I would have been more impressed and agreed with the OP had Bernie won by that kind of margin in Iowa.
This is not a knock against Sanders, I like both candidates equally. Just expressing my 2 cents.
leveymg
(36,418 posts)Thank you for answering the recurrent question why so.many of us continue to spend so much time here.
I read so much here, but I do believe I puts me ahead of the curve.
There's something odd, though, about seeing things shaping up as one has predicted.
Cher
Response to Bonobo (Original post)
1000words This message was self-deleted by its author.
onehandle
(51,122 posts)Bonobo
(29,257 posts)and started a site where they can be more free to attack Sanders and his supporters.
Initially it was more like 70-30, I think.
nadinbrzezinski
(154,021 posts)they now have two sites, and I am waiting for number three.
StevieM
(10,500 posts)I've seen a lot more attacks on Hillary from Sanders supporters than vice-versa.
What is this other website?
one_voice
(20,043 posts)that decided DU was becoming a hostile place.
There are quite a few of us that are undecided & or former O'Malley supporters that choose to either not post here or post on a limited basis.
DU is still a bubble or clique whatever you choose to call it. But it is definitely not friendly or welcoming.
I think often times bullying tactics are displayed--what I mean is if someone says something that's not deemed Bernie friendly they're pounced upon. It doesn't even have to be negative. It seems anything not positive is negative.
For instance. There's a story about one of his advisers convicted of embezzlement, I haven't heard about this. If I ask questions I'm automatically an enemy because I ask. Not everyone knows everything about Bernie Sanders.
I used to come to DU to find out things. I will find out what I want to know some place else. Which is a shame because here at least Sander friendly people get to explain, to tell the story. But I'm not putting up with insinuations, accusations etc.
Sorry, but that's been my experience & my observation.
AgadorSparticus
(7,963 posts)redstateblues
(10,565 posts)I've been here over 10 years and the nastiness on this site is unparalleled - most of the HRC supporters have gradually drifted away after the aggressive takeover of DU by BSS. I saw an amazing hide today of an OP that was trying to start a discussion about Bernie and the AA community. Shut down. Wow! The characterizations of "that other site" are pretty funny and generally way over the top. I tiptoe around here occasionally but the enforcers here don't permit any discussion of Sanders GE weaknesses so I have pretty much reverted to my lurker days.
Response to redstateblues (Reply #68)
Name removed Message auto-removed
totodeinhere
(13,058 posts)ouit of then air?
Uncle Joe
(58,365 posts)Thanks for the thread, Bonobo.
uponit7771
(90,347 posts)Bonobo
(29,257 posts)2banon
(7,321 posts)Did I forget to mention, that you're SPOT the EFF ON!
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)Bonobo
(29,257 posts)Maybe you should re-read it.
For one thing I said it was "more reflective of the real world" than portrayed by some.
For another thing, I acknowledged that it is disproportionately white.
I know it is easier to see when you flatten everything into a 2D image, but 3D is actually more fun!
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)pretty much exclude people of color. NH is more like DU, but not the USA.
This OP is preposterous.
Bonobo
(29,257 posts)I said it was a "meaningful window into the mood of the Democratic electorate."
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)You know this is complete bullshit but want to parse words to defend it.
It is not hating on white people - as you suggested yesterday- to say they don't run the world anymore. It is acknowledging the real world, instead of pretending it is like NH.
Bonobo
(29,257 posts)Do I think they set the mood?
No. Do I think the outsized win for Sanders reflects an underlying shift in Democratic politics? Yes.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)Interesting. I think I need a better sampling than you do, before going out on a limb.
Interesting bit of wishful thinking though. Sending the POC to a cornfield, in a sense.
Bonobo
(29,257 posts)South Carolina???
Seriously?
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)is reflective of the whole nation's mood.
You're assuming anyone here would make the same silly mistake you just did! Even when we explain how wrong you are.
Bonobo
(29,257 posts)substantive to say about this OP that we haven't already discussed.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)It's funny because I was talking got someone and we were saying NH is a lot like DU. But the rest of the country? Yeah, nope.
hack89
(39,171 posts)he won with Independents. Certainly not a shift in Democratic politics.
Bonobo
(29,257 posts)Do you think they came from nowhere?
What percentage of them were disaffected Progressives that have left the party in the last 30 years as a result of a loss of confidence in change?
Bringing them back into the Democratic party would not be a change in Democratic politics?
hack89
(39,171 posts)every election has a populist that "will change everything." Until they don't.
Bonobo
(29,257 posts)Are we having a conversation, or is this just like, ignore-what-the other-person-who took-the-time-to-respond-to-you day?
You said that Independents supporting Sanders did not count as a change in Dem politics.
I responded.
Your response to me is what now? To say that it doesn't matter because Bernie will lose?
Sorry, but that will probably be the last time I waste my time answering you.
hack89
(39,171 posts)thought I was pretty clear about that. They have no interest in the Democratic Party, just Bernie. Next time around there is no saying what party they will vote for if they vote at all.
Bonobo
(29,257 posts)"They won't stay Dems" largely depends on whether the Dem party gives THEM something to believe in.
It isn't a Bernie Cult. It is a movement based on the hope that the Dems can rediscover their commitment to justice.
hack89
(39,171 posts)can't wait - hopefully DU will return to normal.
Bonobo
(29,257 posts)It isn't right to completely right off Iowa and NH as meaningless.
I'm sure you agree.
hack89
(39,171 posts)the fight is moving to states that are more diverse, more conservative, more religious. We will finally see the true breadth of his support.
ozone_man
(4,825 posts)No matter how many times the conservadems here have tried to paint us into a corner.
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)It was Independents who gave him his large win.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)Bonobo
(29,257 posts)Many have been lost you know.
Not only those Progressives who have become disaffected, but there are also the so-called "Reagan Democrats".
Enlarging the party...when did that become a bad thing?
1StrongBlackMan
(31,849 posts)that a significant segment of N.H. Democrats broke for Kasich. Maybe, N.H. is NOT reflective of Democrats in other states.
I wonder what the Democratic race will look like in the states with closed primaries, where one has to be a Democrat to vote in the Democratic Primary ... especially those where one has to make the decision weeks/months before the primary?
pnwmom
(108,980 posts)So there will be no last minute jumping on that bandwagon. Nevada requires you to register as a Democrat, but that can be done on the day of the caucus.
I think WA caucuses are like Nevada's and Iowa's, with same-day registration. I just can't wait to spend 4 hours trying to vote on a Saturday morning.
StevieM
(10,500 posts)I wouldn't count on a repeat of New Hampshire.
Lil Missy
(17,865 posts)The # of people in your assertion are like a spit in the ocean. WAAAAY to early for such comparisons.
WillyT
(72,631 posts)zentrum
(9,865 posts)Before being stricken with pneumonia Michael had been working to bring justice to Flint, Michigan, in the wake of the water crisis in his hometown. And he was also promoting his first film in six years,Where to Invade Next, which hits a wide release in theaters.
This is the Opening Weekend, starting on Friday February 12, and we need to give it good attendance while Michael is in the Hospital.
Complete List of Theaters here:
http://michaelmoore.com/WhereToInvadeNextTickets/|
See the Trailer:
Pass this On!
RoccoR5955
(12,471 posts)warrprayer
(4,734 posts)Great post!
Katashi_itto
(10,175 posts)Persondem
(1,936 posts)Tarc
(10,476 posts)Crazy times we live in.
SMC22307
(8,090 posts)I have very little patience with that mindset. How many more DECADES of decline are Establishment Dems willing to accept?
840high
(17,196 posts)SMC22307
(8,090 posts)I remember having Wall Street greed and CEO pay discussions with a certain set of co-workers back in the late '90s... nearly 20 freakin' years ago! Then 8 miserable years of W. Nearly 8 years of *pragmatic* Obama (some good, some bad, but overall a wasted opportunity considering the army behind him in 2008).
George II
(67,782 posts)Yes, 60-38 in a state that, as of 2014, is 94.0% White, 1.5% Black or African American, 2.5% Asian, and 3.3% Hispanic or Latino. (http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/33000.html)
Yes, 60-38 in a state where only 247,000 people voted on Tuesday.
Yes, 60-38 in a state whose largest city has only 110,000 people.
Yes, 60-38 in a state with less people than 8 cities in the United States.
Not exactly a cross-section of American ethnic demographics. And certainly not representative of the population/geography/economy of the United States.
Bonobo
(29,257 posts)I said that DU is reflective of the overall mood of the Democratic electorate.
I said that NH is also reflective of a movement.
Distorting what I said in order to make a point only works if people don't pay attention.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)What was it again?
PatrynXX
(5,668 posts)Koch Brothers on the right hate Trump George Soros doesn't like Sanders , and pretty much think the country as a whole is tired of Bush and Clinton zzzzzzz
BainsBane
(53,035 posts)Not even close. No one should have to be told that.
But for your argument to hold, it would mean a significant portion of DUErs aren't Democrats, since that is the group Bernie won. He and Hillary were within a point among Democrats.
Now, if you can figure how to keep Democrats and people of color from voting in the rest of the states, you'll have the electorate that votes as you want.
Your entire claim about NH representing the party is proven false by ext poll data, which isn't exactly difficult to find.
Bonobo
(29,257 posts)Please reread the OP if you wish to know what I DID say.
Response to BainsBane (Reply #82)
Name removed Message auto-removed
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)Freddie Stubbs
(29,853 posts)Bonobo
(29,257 posts)everyone's brain leaving zero room for anything else.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts).
Orsino
(37,428 posts)I'd love to believe in a sudden Sanders surge, but our candidate is certainly aware that his victory will only come at the end of a lot of hard work.
book_worm
(15,951 posts)I give Bernie credit as he won a huge victory there. Now I'll really be impressed if he wins in SC, GA, NC, IL, OH, PA, TX or some state that really is indicative of the real demographics of this nation.
Herman4747
(1,825 posts)Enthusiast
(50,983 posts)Just excellent, Bonobo!
Mbrow
(1,090 posts)kgnu_fan
(3,021 posts)I felt the Establishment continued on with the status quo and there was not much space for the progressive advancement and fundamental changes. Broken promise did hurt. So is Bernie's "revolutionary aspiration" capable of changing the Democratic Party? I hope so.
artyteacher
(598 posts)lark
(23,105 posts)Highly K&R
mgmaggiemg
(869 posts)it sounds just like hate radio
senz
(11,945 posts)I would love for it to be spoken on the media for all Americans to hear.
SleeplessinSoCal
(9,123 posts)Without a leftist Congress Sanders platform will be gutted and the real world economy will respond with market crashes and another deep recession. Has no one noticed how our economy works? And what a mess the middle east is?
Dumbfounding how miopic we here gave become.
tokenlib
(4,186 posts)Most of the country is just tuning in. Bernie is still less known than Hillary. But I think you are correct. And I'm placing my hope that as people get to know Bernie and the issues that the real world joins the fight against the rigged system.
wildeyed
(11,243 posts)And we know know that turned out. And how the heck can a nearly all white state not be a bubble?
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)Which is much more diverse state than New Hampshire.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)The margin could be quite large.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)...until June!
Then we can truly see how reflective DU is of the Democratic Party.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)Stockholm syndrome! And the diabetes and they have no information, mmm hm. Read it all here!
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)I'll be back to post the final results.
According to the exit polls, Hillary won the African American vote 84% to 16%.
I guess they don't post on DU.
bettyellen
(47,209 posts)Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)A larger margin of victory than New Hampshire:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2016/primaries/2016-02-27#SC-Dem
rbrnmw
(7,160 posts)bettyellen
(47,209 posts)Onlooker
(5,636 posts)... they are both primary representative of disaffected straight whites, even if the Sanders supporters are generally far more liberal.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts)However, they will end up with roughly the same number of delegates.
Why? Because Hillary had such a large win in Lousiana. Bernie continues to struggle with African American voters.
This next week should be more interesting with large states like Michigan and Ohio voting.
Hillary currently leads the popular vote by about 1.5 million votes.
Cali_Democrat
(30,439 posts).