2016 Postmortem
Related: About this forumThe Sanders coalition: Not what we thought it was
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/sanders-coalition-not-what-we-thought-it-wasThe Sanders coalition: Not what we thought it was
02/10/16 01:23 PM
By Steve Kornacki
Bernie Sanders coalition may be quite different and much bigger than has been assumed. That is one of the takeaways from his New Hampshire primary rout, in which Sanders scored impressively with voters who had been crucial to Hillary Clintons 2008 victory in the state.
Sanders bested Clinton across virtually all regional and demographic boundaries in the Granite State, crushing her overall by 22 points. But he fared best with economically downscale voters and won over a number of blue-collar cities and towns that had been Clinton redoubts in her 2008 campaign. In so doing, Sanders essentially flipped the 08 script, in which Clintons main challenger, Barack Obama, relied disproportionately on higher-income voters and those with college degrees.
snip//
Sanders success with blue collar voters in New Hampshire carries potentially significant implications. Conventional wisdom has held that his campaign is fueled by the same liberal white voters who sided with Obama in 08 but doomed by his inability to make inroads with black voters, who were essential to Obamas triumph.
But the New Hampshire result suggests that Sanders is winning over white voters who shunned Obama in 2008. Eight years ago, it was blue collar whites who sustained Clintons campaign through the end of the Democratic primary season, providing her edge in must-win contests in Pennsylvania and Ohio and powering her to landslide victories in Greater Appalachia states from Oklahoma to West Virginia. If Sanders can continue to win these voters over, he may be in position to win far more states than most have assumed.
Sanders still faces a stubborn deficit with black voters, who looms large in the upcoming South Carolina primary, and hell have to make gains with them to win the nomination. But after New Hampshire, it may be time to stop measuring Sanders 2016 campaign against Obamas 08 effort and to consider the possibility that Sanders is creating a new coalition right before our eyes.
Erich Bloodaxe BSN
(14,733 posts)Americans. All of us, ideally. But if he doesn't win over the very old, and the very wealthy, who are traditionally Republican voter demographics anyway, I'm good with that. Hillary depending upon those demographics that are essentially Republican doesn't speak well for her chances in a general, anyway.
Jefferson23
(30,099 posts)Motown_Johnny
(22,308 posts)and will make the necessary adjustments in short order.
For the sarcasm impaired >>------->
INdemo
(6,994 posts)and with 6 more Mill to use it will be even better
nt
hifiguy
(33,688 posts)and precision of a Holstein on roller skates and the light touch of a German jazz band.
bbgrunt
(5,281 posts)Half-Century Man
(5,279 posts)I now have to clean coffee out of my keyboard.
"light touch of a German jazz band".......
Und Now, a light freeform piano piece with cornet accompaniment, called "Advance Through the Ardennes To Victory"
SamKnause
(13,106 posts)SamKnause
(13,106 posts)Odin2005
(53,521 posts)Just about sums up the idiocy of cable news.
Blus4u
(608 posts)Let me be the first to kick.
Peace
Jefferson23
(30,099 posts)thereismore
(13,326 posts)in the end. The voting has just begun.
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)The door will always be open.
KoKo
(84,711 posts)and his strong outreach efforts to the Black & Latino community, I think he's going to pick up more of the AA Vote than anyone could anticipate. Also, times have changed since 2008. In spite of many of the positive things Obama has done--the Middle Class and Poor, which includes POC, and Whites, are barely holding their own or doing worse. I don't see Hillary Clinton or Trump being able to address this.
Hi Five! loves me some Nina Turner!
<-----needs wine glasses too
KoKo
(84,711 posts)Sorry for the shout...but, she deserves it! What an incredible spokesperson she is.
Back attcha!
Odin2005
(53,521 posts)I see high office somewhere in her future!
jen63
(813 posts)She's been in Nevada campaigning!! Nina rocks and some day I'll be casting my vote for her as potus!!
Peace Patriot
(24,010 posts)Saw her on a panel the other day with Bernie. She is terrific!
SamKnause
(13,106 posts)jillan
(39,451 posts)there is shock!
I just love little moments like that, don't you???
Odin2005
(53,521 posts)And that is why he will win.
redruddyred
(1,615 posts)rather the GOP than hillary. this isn't hearsay, I was told to my face, by a voter.
we need her to win the general MY FOOT
hifiguy
(33,688 posts)She completely demoralizes/disenfranchises/turns off the left-liberal base and will strongly motivate the duck-fucking cave orc Repig base to come out and vote against her.
I'd wager she would be worth between one and three million votes, nationally. For the Repigs.
amborin
(16,631 posts)if Trump gets the Rep nomination, they and many working and middle class voters will give him their vote; his populist message resonates, etc.
DNC better realize: it's Bernie or a Republican in 2016
hifiguy
(33,688 posts)Cos it's true.
redruddyred
(1,615 posts)but would be seriously tempted to vote for trump myself.
BECAUSE TRADE, he's a pig otherwise.
redruddyred
(1,615 posts)we have more dems than Rs in this country, and they don't vote because they fucking hate their politicians.
until the sanders campaign came into being, i used to read such posts every day on the DU.
hifiguy
(33,688 posts)and talks to people truthfully and without greasy politicalese or snide condescension. Bernie's about as "focus-grouped" as one of the pine trees in Vermont, unlike someone else I could mention.
redruddyred
(1,615 posts)regardless, she wasn't going to do SHIT about TPP and social security until sanders gained momentum. hard to believe her now.
hifiguy
(33,688 posts)I had it and I am a lifelong D. The last 16 years have only aggravated the condition.
She's a lousy candidate, combining as she does the common touch of Marie Antoinette and the humility of Napoleon.
hifiguy
(33,688 posts)And they're coming back to their natural political home at last.
KoKo
(84,711 posts)that the Corporate/Wall Street funded "Think Tanks" and the Political Ops serving them have indoctrinated the American people with for the last 40 Years.
Bernie gets it! And, he's old enough to have lived through it and seen what it has done to our American Working Class.
Hillary and Bill chose a different path and made money off of their "putting their past behind them." Bernie never forgot where he came from, and chose a different path.
Odin2005
(53,521 posts)Hillary supporters make hay of the fact that many Sanders supporters also like Trump, but that is actually a good sign. That working class white people who would ordinarily vote for a Republican are now also liking a populist Democratic candidate means that the "Reagan Democrats" are coming back.
Kurovski
(34,655 posts)Recursion
(56,582 posts)Really?
Odin2005
(53,521 posts)Recursion
(56,582 posts)Sorry, there's just no way around that. And that was working class whites' decision.
Odin2005
(53,521 posts)Recursion
(56,582 posts)We'll see in the upcoming weeks.
unc70
(6,114 posts)Edwards campaign focus was issue oriented, mostly the same issues as Sanders. Clinton got about the same percentage in NH as in 2008; Sanders, that of Obama plus Edwards.
In SC in 2008, Edwards won the white vote while Clinton finished third. I suspect that Clinton is far more vulnerable in SC than most predict.
BigBearJohn
(11,410 posts)Thespian2
(2,741 posts)every voter should be supporting the revolution...and Bernie...
pnwmom
(108,978 posts)Beacool
(30,247 posts)NH is NH. I wouldn't read the tea leaves and assume that the results in NH will necessarily translate to other states.
Promethean
(468 posts)Didn't exit polls show he was only behind Clinton with black voters by 2 or 3 percent? Isn't that kind of a tiny deficit that is within the margin of error?
HooptieWagon
(17,064 posts)'Non-whites' (they didn't break it down) were Sanders 48, Clinton 52. I don't know why the improvement so big over Iowa. Could be NH saw Iowa results and decide he was electable after all, or maybe Iowa PoC are a bit older, more religious, and more conservative.
Promethean
(468 posts)hifiguy
(33,688 posts)F.D. Roosevelt did the same thing.
History doesn't repeat, but it rhymes. - Mark Twain
Bjornsdotter
(6,123 posts)...has been trying to drive the election rather than listening to the people. It's their own fault they didn't see it coming.
Half-Century Man
(5,279 posts)seems to have a momentary clear area in the side of his bubble.
He can see something that might be a vast gathering with a purpose. Oh looky, it might be several demographics unnaturally clustering together.
Baka
hifiguy
(33,688 posts)are coming together, realizing they have ALL been royally screwed by the wealthy. And they're looking for heads.
Half-Century Man
(5,279 posts)Meet ya at the drawbridge.
hifiguy
(33,688 posts)is no basis for a system of government!"
Someone forgot to tell HRH and DWS.
WillyT
(72,631 posts)Uncle Joe
(58,362 posts)Thanks for the thread, babylonsister.
2banon
(7,321 posts)especially the discussion threads in this op.. loving it.
jfern
(5,204 posts)Bernie's doing better with the poor and Hispanics than Obama, which should offset doing worse with the rich and blacks than Obama.
Babel_17
(5,400 posts)And Senator Sanders is talking about a lot of issues that we've been skittish of in the past.
He's the candidate from nowhere; Who could have seen the possibility of a challenger who's not on the payroll, and who'd actually walk the walk, and talk the talk, of how our system of government and finance has been corrupted?
ucrdem
(15,512 posts)He can't win without full participation of the party and NH is not the party.
Peace Patriot
(24,010 posts)Not a good idea to threaten the true frontrunner, the candidate with all the momentum, the candidate who just raised $7 million in small donations in about 24 hours, the candidate who is inspiring the young to flock to the Democratic Party to vote for him and to volunteer for him, the candidate who actually intends to implement the Democratic Party platform of the last, oh, 40 years, the candidate who is re-igniting the Democratic Party!
If he manages to overcome all the obstacles that the DNC, in collusion with the Clinton campaign and the corporate media, put in his way--and he seems to be doing very will at that--and he wins the nomination, and "the party" (by which you mean the big shots) refuse to support him, then his supporters are going to flood out of the Democratic Party, and the Democratic Party will be no more--or nothing but a sort of rusty tin can that Republicans kick around now and then.
I frankly don't think that the "big shots" are going to do that. They will "triangulate" around him and try to curtail him but they won't openly abandon the party's nominee. And if they do, it won't matter, because he doesn't want or need the kind of money that the "big shots" parcel out to their favorites, and the Democratic Party just doesn't have any kind of organization that Sanders will need--that was abandoned with Dean's "50 state" strategy. So, as is typical of him and his staff, they will invent their own organization.
End of Democratic Party. Beginning of something new--a party that serves the People, a New Deal Party. And whoever you mean by "we"--these "gentle" pointer-outers--will be out of power
So, why not forget "gentle"? Why not scream this threat? Let us all hear it now.
Yeah, you have pissed me off. I was 'born a Democrat' and have been voting Democratic, and supporting Democrats, and working for Democrats, for 54 years, since I was 16! So I have a right to react to threats by my own party for supporting a real Democrat. That's what Sanders is--a real Democrat--whatever he calls himself. Sorry to be mad and snippy. Please understand. I've been an active Democrat for a long time--and so were my parents, and so were my grandparents, and so are my siblings and our children--and I know what I'm talking about.
The Democratic Party is headed off a cliff--so is the entire country, for that matter. THIS political revolution, the Sanders revolution, is a braking mechanism to stop that suicidal plunge into outright fascism and economic and ecological ruin, and turn this national death wish around into a new and expansive democracy alight with all of the creativity and intelligence that democracy can produce, that it was meant by its Founders to produce. The apparatchiks of the Democratic Party cannot stop this, and nothing they can do can dampen my passion, or the passion of millions of other people, for this political revolution. It is needed. And it is happening.