Most important item in the vote patterns

[RobertEarl]

Actual D party members in both Iowa and New Hampshire split about 50-50.

It was independents that said NO to Hillary and YES to Bernie..

The only way we lose the GE is have a candidate that Independents won't vote for, and that loser is Hillary.

[TTUBatfan2008]

1. Too early to say...

I do think Bernie's message on campaign finance corruption has the potential to draw a much more compelling contrast with the Republicans, which are 100% in the back pocket of corporate America.

[RobertEarl]

2. No. Not too early

It is plain math that Independents feel the Bern and don't like Hillary.

In Iowa the I voted in the R races. Had they voted in the D race Bernie may have won much like he did in NH. Clearly I's are voting for anti-establishment candidates. H is establishment, Bernie is not.

[LonePirate]

3. Actually, the plain math suggests more Independents voted Rep than Dem. That's the red flag here.

[RobertEarl]

4. In Iowa yes.

But what I saw in NH was a 50-50 split of D's. So the +21 Bernie points were Indies.

But as to the I's voting R.... that is a problem. Luckily it looks like no credible R will be in the running... has there ever been one?

[LonePirate]

5. Credible means different things to us than to Repubs.

Establishment Repubs - the party faithful - will not vote Dem in the GE no matter who the Repub nominee is. That's the Kasich, Bush, Rubio and Christie voters. The Cruz and Fiorina voters are not voting Dem in the GE, either, as they seem to be more fundie in nature. That leaves the Trump and Carson voters, well the Trump voters as Carson was a non-factor in NH. Do you think the Trump voters are going to switch to the Dems in the GE if they voted for him in the primary?

There is no good news for Dems in the turnout numbers as a whole in NH. There may be good signs in the Dem only numbers for Bernie but when you factor in all voters, NH paints a frightening picture for us.

[RobertEarl]

6. Good news on the Indie front

They like Bernie, the Indies do.

[LonePirate]

9. I agree. Indies do like Bernie but did over 30K of them still vote in the NH Repub primary?

Repubs turned out over 30K more voters than Dems this year. In 2008, Dems turned out over 50K more voters than Repubs. That 80K swing is very, very troubling for us.

[RobertEarl]

11. That was in Iowa

It is curious. Obama won Iowa in 2012. So, it can happen again in the GE.

In the primary, the action was in the R race. So Indies cast there. They did the opposite in the 2008 primary.

NH, tonight, Bernie got 111,000 votes. Idk how many were cast in total. When it comes to the GE all it takes is +1 for the electoral college win. We can do it.

[LonePirate]

13. No, that was in NH.

Here is the source.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election_in_New_Hampshire,_2008

In the 2008 NH primaries, 284K voted in the Dem primary and 235K voted in the Repub primary. That is +50K for the Dems.

In 2016, the Repubs will wind up with 30-35K more total votes in their primary than in the Dem primary. Go to any news site and check the numbers yourself.

How does either Dem recover from that deficit? It's not like the voters in NH were unfamiliar with Bernie.

[RobertEarl]

14. Indies are fickle

Duh!

The action was in the R races. Bernie was known to win NH and the tie in Iowa was affirmed. So indies went to where there was action. But from what I heard the balance of Bernie's win in NH was indies. And lots of young voters in there.

Indies are almost the largest group of the three. They don't like H.

[RobertEarl]

7. And this

Many Clinton voters main reason was they felt Bernie was not electable. So that's an area we must work on.... always have, eh?

[tecelote]

19. He's doing a good job of proving that wrong lately.

[TSIAS]

8. Closed primaries will be an issue

I don't expect Sanders to win in Florida, which is closed.

HC is not doing well with independents, although if she can face Cruz she might have a chance to win the GE.

[anotherproletariat]

10. But don't you think that things will change because of the momentum from today?

I just don't think that the old polls can be thought of as accurate anymore.

[RobertEarl]

12. We are due for some surprises

Florida could become a toss up. Bernie takes Texas, Cali, NY. A few here and there and the momentum builds, just as it did for Obama. Bernie has great staff. They know how to get it done.

[SoLeftIAmRight]

15. Very true but

it is only in the swing states that the decision will matter

Sorry red and blue states

[RobertEarl]

17. Turnout

People will go to vote if there is someone to vote for.

And we need a Uuuuge turnout.

[jillan]

16. Kornacki said that Bernie got the Obama voters tonite PLUS the blue collar workers. In 2008

blue collar went to Hillary.

If Bernie is breaking thru to blue collar workers, that is another huge plus for him over Hillary....esp with Donald Duck on the other side. GOP blue collar workers are breaking for him.

The breakdown of numbers were very interesting tonite.
A alot different than the "only millennials" will vote fore Bernie bs we've been hearing up until tonite.

Feeling great!

[RobertEarl]

18. Feeling great here too!

This is fun.

[Spitfire of ATJ]

20. To me the big divide is the working class likes Bernie....

Hillary is getting the upper income types of which there are few. The main reason they're going her way is because they're afraid Bernie is going to raise their taxes. Well their taxes are at historic lows and besides, this country has some real problems with infrastructure. Flint its the tip of the iceberg. We have been putting off a major rebuild ever since Reagan as the #1 thing BOTH parties have been fixated on is protecting the wealthy from paying their taxes.

This constant fixation with an ever increasing Stock Market which only benefits the rich is going to end and America will finally end the Cold War.