Bernie Sanders and the Expectations Game in New Hampshire

[Bubzer]

Sen. Bernie Sanders might be the underdog nationwide, but he has been leading in the polls in New Hampshire for months.

One poll released on the eve of the "First in the Nation" primary from CNN/WMUR/UNH put the Vermont independent at a whopping 61 percent over the former secretary of state at 35 percent. Another from UMass-Lowell, also out Monday, had Sanders at 56 percent and Clinton at 40 percent. While the numbers would be exciting for any campaign, they have also set the bar high for Sanders as voting in the state begins.

Sanders' campaign confirms that their internal polling numbers are strong, but argues, as does the senator, that nothing can be taken for granted and that any win would be momentous for them.

“Obviously, there are these polls out there that have him 20, 23 points ahead that can't be true. It’s got to be tighter than that,” Sanders’ national spokesman Michael Briggs told ABC News.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/bernie-sanders-expectations-game-hampshire/story?id=36800942

Michael Briggs rightly points out that the poll gaps seem a bit too wide. Keep this in mind; Bernie is quite popular in NH... and he'll win, but probably not by a huge margin... almost certainly not the 26 point spread suggested in some polls.

I think there is an effort here to manufacture a perception that Hillary has closed the distance in a state where he has acknowledged popularity... all in an attempt to build perceived momentum... which, of course, could translate to actual momentum.

We have to keep the pressure on! We cannot let up! Hillary's already sicked the attack dog on Bernie, just like she did against Obama in 2008. She's uneasy. She's starting to realize... maybe it isn't a coronation after all... it really is a competition... and Bernie is a fierce competitor!

Go Bernie!!!

[virtualobserver]

1. There is such a large range in the polling....between a 10 and 26 point lead

What encourages me is that Bernie outperformed the polling average in Iowa by 4 points.

The average is 13.3 points in New Hampshire. So I say Bernie by 18 points

[Bubzer]

3. I'm less concerned about margin...and more that he simply win.

[virtualobserver]

5. I agree that winning is the priority......but Bernie "won" Iowa because he exceeded expectations.

I think that the margin is important in terms of fundraising and in moving future state and national polls upward.

The attempt to spin down a close win will be unbelievable from all elements of the establishment.

[Bubzer]

6. I definately agree, Bernie won because he exceeded expectations.

I think Hillary is trying to do the same in NH. Set expectations considerably higher than reality, that Bernie will absolutely dominate... then crow about it when the margin is much smaller than expected.

I mean, a dominating victory would be fantastic, but I think there's an attempt to manipulate perceptions.

[Red Oak]

2. Hillary showed us 0.2% is a "huge" victory

Anything over a 1% win must be a landslide where the people have spoken!

[Bubzer]

4. heh

Tempting as it is to agree with you... and its VERY tempting, I'd rather not give any ground to perception shaping.