These Guys Called Iowa Virtually to the Point: Here is What They Just Predicted About New Hampshire

[tgards79]

Here you go...
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2016/02/new-hampshire-primary-predictions-could.html

[artislife]

1. yup,yup, yup, and yup.

[Motown_Johnny]

2. I've been guessing 15, although I hope it is higher.

It will depend on unlikely voters.

As long as Hillary loses by more than 9% it is a good night for Bernie.

[tgards79]

19. I think that's right...

...if Hillary cuts it to single digits she will win the expectations game.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

3. That's very interesting. Bookmarking to check back later.

[think]

4. liking those numbers..

[basselope]

5. I'll tell ya.. if they are correct, that will be YUUUUGE!

I think a lot of these polls are simply nuts and expected the final result to be AT BEST Bernie +12. (I am honestly thinking it will be +7, but put my guess in at +12 for fun)

If he winds up with a 14 point win in the state where Clinton beat Obama in 2008, that is a pretty major condemnation of Clintonian politics and will completely shake up Nevada and South Carolina.

[tgards79]

8. Not sure about that but we'll see...

Last South Carolina poll in mid-January had her up by 37 points. You need a whole lotta momentum to overcome that!

[basselope]

13. Just look at 2008 and see how fast things can change...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_primary-194.html

Pre-Iowa Clinton up by between 10-16 points in New Hampshire based on polls.

AFTER Iowa Obama sees a late surge and suddenly starts polling 6-10 points ahead.

Winds up losing by 2.6%.. Many people see it as a disappointment, but in reality he had erased a 16 point lead.

Also keep in mind that Nevada stands between New Hampshire and South Carolina and Bernie is already starting to chip away there in a significant way... A 14 point victory in New Hampshire changes the dynamic... Nevada gets thrown into play and South Carolina becomes Clinton's "last stand"... If Bernie can make it a contest and with the large # of endorsements and enthusiasm, I believe he can... but it all depends on blow out numbers in New Hampshire.

If he wins by 7, it is an uphill climb.

[CoffeeCat]

16. Related to how fast things change

Obama ended up earning one more delegate than Clinton in Nevada.

At this time in 2008, during the race--Obama was behind 7 points MORE than Sanders is now.

So, yes--things can change quickly. And Bernie is 7 points ahead of Obama in Nevada at this point--and Obama ended up winning one more delegate than Clinton.

Also, Obama did not win New Hampshire and still he won more NV delegates. That's something.

Bernie will have major momentum going into NV.

NV is setting up to look very good for Bernie. He's got more offices there than Clinton and he's been there quite a bit. Clinton put nearly all of her resources into Iowa and has not spent as much time there as Bernie.

I've got a good feeling about NV.

[in_cog_ni_to]

6. Thank you!

Lookin' good for Bernie! Yooooge win!

PEACE
LOVE
BERNIE

[retrowire]

7. love the blog tgards! well written. thanks! nt

[alcibiades_mystery]

9. Hey, that was my prediction!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=1173928

[Jenny_92808]

10. Go Bernie!

fivethirtyeight predicts that Sanders has a more than 99% chance of winning the NH primary.

Projected results -

Sanders 57.4%
Clinton 39.6%

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/new-hampshire-democratic/

[tgards79]

11. Oh you mean Nate Silver, the guy who said Donald Trump has a 58% chance of winning Iowa?

Stick with BTRTN!!!! Ha ha!

[Jenny_92808]

12. I just hope that

Bernie wins.

[basselope]

14. Yeah, nate blew both GOP and DEM predictions for Iowa.

[CoffeeCat]

15. I heard that Nate Siliver doesn't really do political numbers

any longer, although he does opine quite a bit. Quite curiously, some of this current pieces directly contradict the brilliant work and analysis that he did before he went full-blown corporate and his site was purchased by ESPN.

Is it true that he's mainly working his analytics and data analysis in the sports arena?

His current prognostications are dull and really off the mark at times.

He's really fallen from his brilliant numbers-analysis days. It's kind of tragic.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

17. Studied all the polls and cannot see where Hillary beats Bernie.

Had heard people saying that the numbers had changed drastically but when I looked at all the polls - did not see that. You can't compare one poll to a different poll and I think that was what was happening last night on here. I support both candidates btw.

[tgards79]

18. The whole point is to aggregate the polls...

...single polls are suspect. The error rate goes down when you combine them.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

27. I don't agree. You do need to look at all the polls but compare the same polls against each other.

To look for where the momentum is going.

[SecularMotion]

20. The Hillometer

THE HILLOMETER

HilloMeter 6

The Hillometer is a BTRTN-exclusive index that is a measure of Hillary Clinton's strength as a presidential candidate. A positive number means that if nominated she is likely to win the general election; a negative number means she is likely to lose.

The Hillometer is an index of four measures:
1) Hillary's margin in the polls versus the top three GOP contenders in the polls (on average) at that time (50% weighting):
2) Hillary's favorability rating, versus a base of 50% (25% weighting):
3) Obama's approval rating, versus a base of 50% (15% weighting):
4) The Econometer (see below for this BTRTN-exclusive metric of the strength of the economy), versus a base of 100 (10% weighting).

There is no ceiling or floor to the index, but the likely range is -50 to +50. Her current score for the month of January, 2016 of 6 is marginally positive, her first positive score in four months. She leads Trump/Cruz/Rubio by 6.2 points on average; her favorability rating of 43% is a -7, Obama's approval rating of 46% is a -4, and the Econometer index of 98 is +2 versus the base of 100. Apply the weights, add them up, multiply by 10, and you get 6. This is an improvement from last month's score of -2.

[tgards79]

21. Glad you like...

...but it assumes she gets the nomination!

[Fast Walker 52]

22. cool site-- will be worth checking as this goes on

[tgards79]

23. Thanks!

Should be exciting!

[tgards79]

24. Got it right again!

NH results eerily similar to our predictions -- again!

[joshcryer]

28. Nicely done!

[tgards79]

29. Thanks!

We were pleased...

[Karma13612]

25. 21 point spread as of 9:54 PM east coast with only 38% reported.

not too shabby

[tgards79]

26. I'll say..

...quite a performance!